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Hermes was graded at OVER 33.5 since that was the price it pulled from the odds provider at the time of the alert. However, as many of you saw and reported, the actual price at the time was anywhere from 30.5 to as high as 32 at the books.

So, Hermes gets the loss but 98% of you following should have gotten the win as the price on the odds provider was off by 1.5 to 3 points from the actual price.
**Monday Recap**

In TSP Live…

The TSP Live Radar went 1-1 losing with Albany +13.5 by the hook, but winning with New Orleans +3.

The Book Needs went 0-1-1 losing with Brazil DRAW, but getting the push with Croatia/Japan UNDER.

Hermes lost a 0.55 unit wager on New Orleans/TB OV33.5 by the hook!

A Group Buy on the OVER in New Orleans and Tampa did not get OVER 41.

There was no Public Prop Fade that met the key levels. The closest thing was to take Brady OVER 38.5 pass attempts, which got there easily!

My pizza play on Croatia/Japan DRAW did cash the ticket nicely. Got a little 1.02 unit rollover going now. Started with Clemson back on Saturday!

Two losses by a hook yesterday though.

On Twitter & Telegram, my pizza props did not cash the ticket. I was right there with Godwin too! My pizza prop for 1st goalscorer in Brazil/S Korea did not get there either.

Tuesday and Wednesday are usually quieter days. It was a busy weekend, so a more low key day would not be a bad thing. Let’s see what comes up!

Good luck!
MOROCCO 🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦

KEEPER ROLLS A SHUTOUT FOR PENALTIES!!!! WOW!!!!! What an awesome match!!!!

After they didn't cash regulation, figured they played too good not to finish it off. Always worth a pizza chaser in-play!

I saw some of you took DRAW for regulation. Nice call there. The big money was too much to pass up for me in regulation.
Just for fun...the DRAW has been cashing consistently for the 1st Halves in World Cup. I think someone wins the first half in this next match. You could bet 0.20 units on Portugal +162 and 0.10 units on Switzerland +415. If there is a DRAW, then it is -0.30 units...pizza money bet. If there is no DRAW, then you win either 0.24 units (Portugal wins) or 0.22 units (Switzerland wins).
👆👆💰Worked out well...not big money...but a nice little profit based on the "No 1st Half DRAW" strategy. Picked up 0.24 units with relatively no sweat for 0.30 units of risk.

If you are waiting for replies from me, I have not had a chance to get to messages since late afternoon yesterday. I should be clearing messages shortly.

TSP NEWSLETTER WILL BE OUT TOMORROW!!
TSP Bulletin Board

Next time you visit the TSP Live Dashboard at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts, be sure to scroll down below the TSP Live Quick Links menu. When you do, you will see a "TSP Bulletin Board"

The bulletin board will not contain any wagers or angles. It will just be used to cover changes that arise. I know people often don't have the time to read every alert or every TSP Live Insider. As such, you may miss updates on content changes or other news. So, when I discuss something or that nature, I will add it to the bulletin board. If there are frequent questions from susbcribers, I will post them here too. I'll leave stuff up there for 30 days or so and then delete.

Thereby when you look into TSP Live it would be good to get into a routine of quickly peeking at the bulletin board before proceeding to the analytics tables, other links or alerts page. It'll just ensure you are full up to date in case you missed something.
An alert "TSP Live Memo Tues #1" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/06/tsp-live-memo-tues-1/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
An alert "TSP Live Insider 12/7" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/07/tsp-live-insider-12-7/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
📰Issue #15 of the TSP Newsletter is on newsstands!

Topic of the Week...It's Not "OVER"

Newsletter selections are 25-17 (59.5%) this season!

PLUS...IT'S FREE!!!

Check out this week & past issues at http://TheSharpPlays.com/tsp-newsletter/ 🍀
Market Breakdown

Tier 1 Content (TSP Live Alerts) Assessment: I am not seeing anything likely to hit here. As always it can change on a dime, but the low level of betting volume from sharp money makes me think we won't see anything.

Tier 2 Content (Twitter & Telegram Sharp Reports + Algorithms) Assessment: Two algorithm selections posted to Twitter earlier.

Tier 3 Content (TSP Live Analytics table content which doesn't trigger any alert) Assessment: Only one NCAAB on the TSP Live Radar and two NFL angles popped up earlier. Nothing in the way of Book Needs as betting volumes are very low today.

Public Betting Activity: LOW

Sharp Betting Activity: LOW

Overall Assessment: Quiet day, best left for a pizza bet if you need some action. If something changes, myself or the bots will report...but as always...don't force it...you know I won't be forcing looks or alerts.

Good luck!
An alert "TSP Live Action Alert" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/08/tsp-live-action-alert/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
An alert "TSP Live Insider 12/8" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/08/tsp-live-insider-12-8/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
Very quiet out there today. Only two angles (NBA and NHL) on the TSP Live Radar.

Nothing exciting on the game tonight. Prop markets are absolutely dead, so no Public Prop Fade (13-4 the L17). The book would like the Rams to win outright, it's just below the level to be a Low Level Book Need.

Otherwise, not too much to cover. We will see what else pops. I might have an Oddsmaker's Report for NBA due to some possible action going on now. If that doesn't occur, I will let you know what was up here in the Telegram channel.

Good luck tonight!
Some sharp money coming in on the Rams over the past 10 minutes. Nothing exciting and won't hit the TSP Live Radar, but that's the latest with the game.
The news I was going to discuss in an Oddsmaker's Report is the NBA prop guy is back in the mix. Yeah, the guy from the playoffs who went 11-2 this past summer in the Oddsmaker's Report. He bets NCAAB and NBA. He's only had a couple NCAAB bets so far, but yesterday he inquired on a limit for Trae Young (last night's game). He never did anything, but he's in the mix! So, we might get some action from him here and there.

Also on a side note, betting group activity has been picking up in NCAAB and the TSP Live Radar for NCAAB has been strong this season. I will have some discussion on strategy for NCAAB and TSP Live Radar angles in tomorrow's TSP Live Insider.

Good luck on anything you bet tonight!
An alert "TSP Live Insider 12/9" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/09/tsp-live-insider-12-9/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
An alert "TSP Live Action Alert" has been posted. Subscribers can view at https://tsp.live/2022/12/09/tsp-live-action-alert-2/

TSP Live Member Dashboard (Analytics tables, Archived Alerts, Subscriber links): https://TSP.Live/tsp-live-alerts/
**Thursday Recap**

In TSP Live…

The TSP Live Action Alert saw the NBA “known” bettor cash the ticket with the Spurs outright!

The TSP Live Radar went 1-1, cashing in the NHL (where it has been very strong) with Winnipeg -115, but losing in NBA on Denver UNDER 227.5.

The Book Need on the LA Rams cashed the ticket! I forgot all about this angle when I was discussing the Book Needs in the TSP Live Insider this morning. When this win is added to the tracking, it brings all categories of Book Needs back in the green! At the end of October, Low Level Books Needs took a beating. Since then they have picked up 19.8 units…covering the losses they incurred at the end of October and early November…and providing a very healthy profit on top! THE EBB AND FLOW OF GAMBLING. Further illustrating why you need a bankroll management system that can weather the ups and downs.

On Twitter & Telegram, I lost my pizza prop, but the Sharp Burst Report on Denver -1 and +8.5 in-play…got the push for the pregame price, but got the win in-play!

It’s already Friday!!

Good luck!
**Why Is the Line So Accurate?**

This gets a little mathematical and technical, but it will help you to see why and how sometimes the oddsmaker nails the line spot on…or very close to the actual outcome.

I was asked how bookmakers can get the number so accurate. It is a combination of math through algorithms…both the book’s algorithms for setting the initial line, then sharp money’s algorithms for how they bet and further shape the line combined with old fashioned standard deviation.

Denver -1 (NBA) yesterday winning by 1, which was the closing line, was not as it wild as it might seem. People always remember when a game finishes on the number. People don’t pay attention to the occasions when the number is off 3,4,5+ points from the actual result. It’s more luck than skill when a number falls on the number.

For example, today (I am just picking a random game) we have Cleveland -5 over Sacramento.

Standard deviation assessment would put the score differential (2 standard deviations from the mean = 95% of possible outcomes) anywhere from Cleveland by 21 to Sacramento by 10. It gives us 31 possible score outcomes…

Cleveland by 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Sacramento by 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

So, if we assume the outcome of tonight’s game is within 2 standard deviations, then we have a 30-1 chance of just randomly selecting the exact score differential…no skill involved…just luck. Throw a dart…Sacramento by 2!

If we just go out only 1 standard deviation (1 standard deviation means 68% chance of getting the score differential within that window) then the possible score differential window becomes anywhere from Cleveland by 12 to Sacramento by 2.

It makes the possible outcomes…

Cleveland by 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Sacramento by 2, 1

There are 14 possible outcomes above (1 standard deviation)…meaning if the game ends with a result 1 standard deviation from the mean, there is a 13 to 1 chance that Cleveland wins by 5.

Furthermore, there is a 3 out of 14 chance that the game falls on or within 1 point of the spread (Cleveland by 6,5,4 since Cleveland is -5). Meaning the book has a 21% chance roughly 5 to 1 of looking really intelligent and getting the spread on or within 1 point of the actual outcome.

When you start to look at all the games on the board, there will undoubtedly be games that fall right on the number for the push. When you zoom out, you will see these games which end right on the number or within 1-2 points of the spread aren’t really magic, it fits within these standard deviations and probabilities. When you are putting prices on so many games per day, says 90 in a college football weekend…the book will likely nail 3 to 6 out of those 90 perfectly. In an NFL football weekend with 16 games, the book will get 1 games on average every two weeks to fall right on the number.

Books can’t see the future, they don’t know anything…well, other than math and probabilities of random outcomes. Sometimes in a game of numbers that’s all you need!

Good luck!!
💰💰Netherlands +0.5💰💰

Rocking chair winner!!!🤙🍀