🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹

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LONG (BUY) EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: 5140.13 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️

Recommended Entry ✅ near 5086
(or near/below 5100 - but definitely not above) 🔄


🔹 ExxonMobil (+1.7%) – is among the few stocks in the S&P 500 trading in the green (only about 17.5% of companies in the S&P 500 are trading positively in pre-market). XOM is among the top 15 best performers in pre-market, opening about 1.7% higher. We found a very good entry yesterday. XOM hits TP ✅ (151.44) immediately at the open, with the oil and gas giant opening near 153.00. Congratulations 👏 – one of the best LONG trades we could have made yesterday – we found a great entry.

🔹 Nvidia (-2.0%) – continues its rollercoaster price development and opens lower again after consecutive positive sessions. We see NVDA again near 180.00 – where we will likely also see buyers returning. NVDA will remain under pressure as tech/growth stocks face headwinds today from cautious trading, a stronger USD, and concerns that interest rates may remain higher for longer due to inflation risks with energy prices still elevated and oil at multi-month highs. There is not a single day without a positive rating for NVDA – today from Bernstein, which says NVDA will outperform, with a price target of $300, well above the current price (~$179). We remain LONG; NVDA remains an excellent investment across all time frames (especially long term).

🔹 Shopify (-3.3%) – opens sharply lower below $131.00 and is among the worst performers in the Nasdaq 100, triggering our TP ✅ (131.11). Many investors bought into yesterday’s rally – we instead sold yesterday’s overgains and are now being rewarded for it.


► Concerns that the war in the Middle East will continue for significantly longer have increased after Trump wrote on social media that there will be no deal to end the US/Israel war against Iran without an “unconditional surrender” by Iran.
“After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we – together with many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners – will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before,” Trump added in his post.

► We see significantly worsened risk sentiment. Our DAX position has already hit TP ✅📸 (I even extended the TP by 100 points – and it still triggered). We timed the PERFECT entry.

► Gold will likely rise toward the end of today’s session. The only task here is to find a good entry. We are searching for a good gold entry during early NYSE trading and expect gold to push higher around 5086.

► NFP data points to a weakening US labor market, which briefly weakened the USD. However, Trump’s social media post and general expectations that the US economy will continue to outperform Europe and Asia are limiting downside potential.

► We want to observe early NYSE price action and expect volatile movements. We will likely first see some dip buying in tech, but current conditions do not allow for a strong rebound. In the second half of US trading, we expect renewed profit taking / additional selling pressure.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.08–0.10x (8%–10%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030603A

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——

Gold turned higher right around 5085 (post NYSE opening).

PERFECT ENTRY

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅412.00 - 412.90

► Microsoft is considered a strong winner of the AI boom, which will dramatically reshape the software world in the coming years (even months).

► News about cloud PCs – a project Microsoft wants to launch together with ASUS and DELL – is another boost for Microsoft, supporting further growth of its AI footprint, Microsoft 365, and Microsoft’s cloud ecosystem. Microsoft also benefits from potential success and growing optimism around its custom chip (XPU), which it is developing together with Marvell.

► We see ongoing institutional buying in MSFT after the recent outsized losses driven by Capex concerns and an actual slowdown in Azure growth.

► MSFT is currently outperforming (+0.5%) while the broader market – and especially other tech stocks – are trading lower. We sell MSFT here and expect it will be difficult for MSFT to move much higher from this level, given the overall negative sentiment in growth/software stocks, even though MSFT is still considered the king of software companies.

Microsoft (MSFT): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 45–50x (4,500%–5,000%) – 1/2 position size

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030604A

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——

We identified the perfect turn-around range for MSFT.

🔤🔤🔤🔤
📈4️⃣1️⃣2️⃣📉

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ Elevated volatility; 2/3 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 24880

📌 Nasdaq future (Mar'26) ~10 points higher

► Stocks are rebounding from previous losses. The Nasdaq has significantly reduced earlier declines, supported mainly by gains in the chip sector (especially AVGO, which is extending yesterday’s gains), with NVDA, AMD, and particularly MRVL also finding buyers.

► We expect limited further gains from here, with stronger resistance above 24900, and especially toward the key level of 25000.

► Tech stocks are benefiting from some weakness in the US labor market, which has reduced concerns that the Fed sees no reason to cut rates. Weakness in the labor market could shift the focus more toward the labor market again and somewhat away from the previous strong focus on inflation.

► However, overall risk sentiment remains very fragile, even though we are seeing partial gains. The market is also concerned that the Iran war shows no signs of easing, after Trump stated he is not seeking a deal but rather Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”

► The 🔽 DAX is also an attractive short here after rebounding back to 23650.

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “Standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 2.0–2.5x (200%–250%) – 2/3 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030605A

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——-

🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤🔤
📈2️⃣4️⃣9️⃣0️⃣0️⃣📉

We found the perfect entry in the Nasdaq 100 (against the market)

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LONG (BUY) 🔼 Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 position size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅5131 - 5138

► While a potentially stronger USD later today (especially toward session end) may again weigh on commodity prices (including precious metals), we still expect elevated gold buying ahead of the weekend due to increasing safe-haven demand.

► Fundamentally, gold faces some headwinds, particularly from higher yields weighing on the yellow metal. However, signs of a weakening US labor market – now visible in actual data and not just estimates – are positive for gold. The NFP report was quite alarming, which reduced concerns that persistently high inflation would prevent the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon.

► From a sentiment perspective, gold remains clearly supported, particularly due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the development of the Middle East conflict and the limited signs of an end in sight.

► Algos continue to sell gold during USD strength, but safe-haven demand ahead of the weekend is likely to be stronger.

► We are re-entering roughly at the level of our previously triggered TP ✅📸. We found the perfect entry shortly after the NYSE opening.

Gold (XAU/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.08–0.10x (8%–10%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030606A

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🥇5️⃣1️⃣3️⃣2️⃣📈5️⃣1️⃣9️⃣0️⃣

We found the perfect entry AGAIN into gold 🎯


✅ 02.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 02.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (+Re-entry)
✅ 03.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 03.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 04.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 05.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️
✅ 06.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ 📸

🆕 06.03 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️


❌❌ NEVER, NEVER, NEVER MISS A GOLD TRADE ❌❌
❌❌ NEVER, NEVER, NEVER MISS A GOLD TRADE ❌❌
❌❌ NEVER, NEVER, NEVER MISS A GOLD TRADE ❌❌


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SHORT (VERKAUFEN) 🔽 CAC 40 (FRA_40) 🇫🇷
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅8021 - 8029

► We made the perfect Nasdaq 100 SHORT today, when the market attempted a rebound led by chip stocks. Our Nasdaq 100 already hit TP ✅📸, as profit taking returned toward the end of regular trading – exactly as we predicted. The more cautious positioning also led to gains in gold – where we again found an almost perfect (re-)entry.

► As both of our index SHORTs hit their TPs today, we can open a new SHORT and choose the outperformance of the CAC 40, which is benefiting from gains in the defense sector (Thales +2.1%; Dassault +0.5%; Safran +0.45%) as well as a strong performance from TotalEnergies (+1.8%).

► The CAC 40 was even able to trim more of its losses in after-hours trading.

► While we do not expect a major escalation of the Iran conflict over the weekend, we will likely see a similarly uncertain situation on Monday, with no clear outlook for de-escalation yet.

► With a weak handover from Wall Street (as well as sharp losses in Europe and Asia), it will be difficult for the CAC 40 to start a significant recovery.

► The CAC 40 is currently trading more than 100 points above session highs – which is quite a lot for the CAC. We sell here.

CAC 40 (FRA_40): Multipliziere deine „Standard (EUR/USD)“-Positionsgröße mit etwa 6–7x (600%–700%).

position code / 100% Transparency - 26022001A


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——-

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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Microsoft (MSFT) 🇺🇸
CLOSE ✅ @: near 408.50
or
TP ✅ @: 406.86

I prefer to close MSFT here for a nice profit. Our position is about 1% in profit – which is sufficient for us. Overall, MSFT is in a better position to outperform most of the other tech stocks in the coming week. We achieved a good profit by trading the outperformance.

Alternatively, we can work with a tight TP, as we still see some further correction potential here – but that would require sentiment to remain uncertain on Monday (which is likely).

update 📸🔄


⚠️ NYSE ALREADY CLOSED ⚠️

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——

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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
Gold (XAU/USD)🥇
CLOSE NOW ✅ @: 5174 - 5176

We close our gold position at the end of this week’s after-hours trading with a very nice profit.

We saw EXACTLY the price action we expected in both equities and gold and traded it accordingly. Nearly perfect gold trading today / this week. We end the week with another nice profit in gold (our second today) and close the position right at the absolute session high – perfect 👏

update 📸🔄

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—-


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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 January 26 - March 06
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: January 26 - February 27
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 127 (excl. NVDA)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 109
🔹 Overall REAL Success Rate = 85.8% 🔽

Dropped from statistics: 5/5 - 100% 💎 Success Rate (January 23)
Added to statistics: 6/7 - 85.7% Success Rate (February 27)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: March 02 - March 06 🔹

✅ 2.3 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 71.51)
❌ 2.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5343.63 | or SL - 5328.71)
✅ 2.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5343.63)
✅ 2.3 - CVX - LONG ↗️ (SL - 188.94)
✅ 2.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24853.90)
✅ 2.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 68523.60)
✅ 2.3 - GER_40 - LONG ↗️ (SL - 24677.20)
✅ 2.3 - IBM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 239.86)
❌/✅ 2.3 - XOM - LONG ↗️(TP - 151.97|+re-entry clsd in profit)
✅ 2.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5364.33)

8/10 = 80% Success Rate

❌ 3.3 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.203)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5205.29)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5114.43 me | or TP - 5111.89 | overall deep in profit)
❌ 3.3 - SLB - LONG ↗️ (TP - 49.19 or similar)
✅ 3.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24637.90)
✅ 3.3 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 387.19)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5141.99)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5164.63)

6/8 = 75% Success Rate


——————————————


Apologies for the delayed update on our performance overview from Friday. It was an extremely busy weekend for me, with meetings continuing late into the night on Sunday (or early Monday morning – Asia time).

It was a very strong week for us overall (and also a very good Friday), as we navigated the shifting risk sentiment and high volatility exceptionally well.

Our 🔽 success rate declined slightly as a perfect 5/5 session 💎 (SR = 100%) dropped out of the statistics and was replaced by a strong 6/7 session (SR = 85.7%), which almost exactly reflects our overall performance in our five-week statistics (85.8%).

NVDA remains open and had a weak session on Friday, as risk assets – including AI and chip stocks – faced headwinds following concerns that there is no end in sight to the Iran war. We saw typical Friday risk-off movements, with significant uncertainty ahead of the weekend, further weighed down by recently sharply rising energy prices.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 4.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24888.90)
✅ 4.3 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 6848.90)
✅ 4.3 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 212.97 me | or TP - 212.69)
✅ 4.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5175.13)
✅ 4.3 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 402.33 | or TP - 398.93)
✅ 4.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 305.29)
❌ 4.3 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (clsd off profit - SL - 80.61 me) 📸

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate

✅ 5.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 71689.60)
✅ 5.3 - SHOP - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 131.11) 🔄📸
✅ 5.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 24861.60 me | or 24917.60)
✅ 5.3 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 152.94 me | or 151.44 + gap) 🔄📸
✅ 5.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5115.53) 🔄📸

5/5 = 100% 💎 Success Rate


🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✅ 6.3 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit) 📸
✅ 6.3 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 23411.60 me |or 23511.60) 📸
✅ 6.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5140.13) 📸
✅ 6.3 - MSFT - SHORT ↘️ (clsd near 408.50) 📸
✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 24661.60) 📸
✅ 6.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (clsd near 5175) 📸
✅ 6.3 - CAC_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 7956.20 + gap) 📸

7/7 = 100% 💎 Success Rate


——————————————


We traded Friday spectacularly well, with all seven trades already closed in profit ✅ (today also CAC 40 📸 & EUR/USD 📸 – with a nice gap in our favor at opening in the CAC 40 – an outstanding Friday short and a perfect capture of the CAC’s outperformance).

All of our Thursday positions were also closed in profit ✅

It is almost "frightening" how well we have been trading these chaotic markets recently – with the exception of one oil short position. However, our oil trading overall was mixed, as we were simultaneously LONG the energy sector. We see oil prices currently in a shock reaction and clearly overbought, but the uncertainty around the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and how long we may see significantly reduced production due to delivery or storage disruptions will likely limit the potential for a strong correction, even if oil from strategic reserves might be released. Long-term, the oil market remains bearish. You have probably closed earlier already – if partial short positions are still open, they can still be held if very small; otherwise close on the next dip, roughly around 90–93 (WTI; +$2 for the Apr’26 future).

Overall, last week was spectacular, particularly due to our extremely strong gold profits – including on Friday. We made excellent trades in the equity market, both in individual stocks (such as SHOP 📸, XOM 📸, MSFT 📸) and in trading the broader market through indices (DAX 📸, NAS100 📸, CAC 📸).

Congratulations once again 👏
I wish us all another great week!

🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹

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SHORT (SELL) EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔽 DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry Range ✅23355 - 23405


🔹 Nvidia (-0.65%) – continues to face short-term headwinds, but remains an excellent long-term investment. Citi is the next investment bank recommending “BUY” on NVDA, also emphasizing that NVDA should be a core holding in portfolios.

🔸 Microsoft (-1.4%) – if you still hold MSFT, the stock will open below the TP (+ gap), delivering a very nice profit.


► We see the DAX at session highs in early NYSE trading – significantly above the day’s lows after oil prices cooled following an earlier surge of more than 25% (with Brent spiking as much as 29% intraday). We see this as a rebound trap and trade against the market here that wants to push for a rebound.

► The DAX will likely struggle to recover sustainably, as the outlook for the Iran war remains negative and there is no clear timeline for a de-escalation of the conflict.

► Iran appointed the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the new supreme leader, a defiant signal from the Islamic Republic. Leadership in Tehran vowed not to back down.

► High oil prices and the resulting economic consequences increase pressure on the US to avoid further escalation of the war – which from Iran’s perspective is a positive effect, while Iran continues to sell and ship oil (including through the Strait of Hormuz).

► We see further headwinds for markets, particularly for risk-sensitive stocks. The combination of higher oil prices, rising yields, a weak jobs report, and concerns about inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer is weighing on markets.

► For now, selling recovery attempts appears to be the right strategy. The DAX is particularly suffering from high energy prices.

► We also expect resistance for the Nasdaq 100 above 🔽 24500.

DAX (GER_40): Multiply your "standard (EUR/USD)" trade size by ~2.5–3.0 (250%–300%) – 2/3 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030902A


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——-

🔤🔤🔤🇩🇪
📈2️⃣3️⃣3️⃣6️⃣0️⃣📉

We hit the perfect entry range for the DAX 📉


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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 💰
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅69200 - 69500

► We are not seeing the positive risk sentiment needed for cryptocurrencies to start another strong rally beyond $69K. While last week’s gains (and the proximity to the key $70K level) are currently limiting losses somewhat, momentum remains weak.

► Weak risk sentiment, likely further selling in growth stocks, higher oil prices, and continued support for the USD (+ higher yields) will likely limit upside for BTC as well. We expect the USD to remain in demand today, which will create additional headwinds for all USD-denominated assets.

► We expect resistance in the $69K – $70K range and anticipate that BTC could fall back below $68K.

► While ETH offers slightly more correction potential from current levels (with headwinds above the 2025 highs), we prefer the slightly less volatile BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 0.30–0.40x (30%–40%). Always trade cryptocurrencies with caution. Short-term moves (~7%+) are possible. 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030904A

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——-

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Boeing (BA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 224.50

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SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅near/above 24640 🔄


► We are seeing stocks attempting a rebound after energy prices cooled significantly from their highs. The airline sector in particular had fallen sharply earlier, as higher fuel prices and escalating Middle East tensions generally weigh on the tourism and travel sector.

► The oil supply shock has been further – and mainly – exacerbated by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a very important route for the global oil market (around 20% of global oil shipments pass through this strait). This has raised concerns about higher jet fuel costs and prolonged airspace restrictions.

► As I do not expect near-term signs of easing tensions, airlines and the travel sector remain under strong pressure. There will likely be dip buying, but overall we expect lower lows.

► While Boeing partially benefits from gains in the defense sector, the headwinds facing airlines will also weigh on Boeing.

► We expect profit taking to increase in the second half of US trading. You can improve your Nasdaq 100 entry price. We expect increasing resistance near 24650 and can short again above 24600. We can also set a new (not too wide) TP ✅ for the Nasdaq.

Boeing (BA): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 75–85x (7,500%–8,500%) – 1/2 position size

Nasdaq (NAS100): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 2.0–2.5x (200%–250%) – 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030905A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26030903B

edit:
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We see more downside for BA. We went SHORT in the Nasdaq a bit earlier, but we still expect profit taking toward the end of the session.

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🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
LONG (BUY) 🔼 WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
⚠️ VERY HIGH volatility; 1/3 trade size
SL 🔑 @: 76.79
TP ✅ @: 88.92 (+$2.50 futures contract; Apr'26)

⚠️ ALREADY CLOSED IN PROFIT ⚠️📸

Recommended Entry Range ✅79.00 - 82.00

🗣️ current price: 79.60 - 19:39 UTC+0 / GMT
(+$2.50 futures contract)

Apr′26 Futures Contract +$0.60

► We saw extreme swings in energy prices today – the strongest in history (in USD terms, not in %). It was the largest single-day price jump ever (for Brent) with up to +$26.81, even larger than in 2022, when oil prices also surged sharply but over several days.

► However, we then saw a massive reversal, with Brent giving back more than all of those gains and now trading even below Friday’s closing price. WTI is currently well below Friday’s close and is now down more than 10% (!!!) for the day. This marks the largest intraday move in oil prices in history in USD terms.

► While the oil market remains bearish in the long term, the current mega correction has already gone very far. It was triggered by signs that tankers can actually pass the Strait of Hormuz (a Greek tanker carrying Saudi crude did so earlier today; Iranian tankers are still passing through the strait). Macron also said that France would support a joint maritime mission to escort container ships, helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also hinted at a potentially earlier end to the war, saying that most objectives have already been achieved (while in reality very little has been accomplished).

► However, it is too much in Iran’s interest to keep oil prices elevated to assume they will not take measures to support higher prices. Iran will likely continue ensuring that news about missile attacks or missiles targeting neighboring countries remains in the headlines.

► In addition, Saudi Arabia has started shutting down several of its oilfields. These moves could reduce output by more than 2 million bpd – a very substantial amount – although export levels have not yet been affected. News like this will likely continue to appear.

► We are trading only a very small position here and enter after another sharp long squeeze following panic selling, which has now pushed oil prices significantly below Friday’s closing levels.

WTI (USOIL) 🛢: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 2 - 3 (200% - 300%) - if contract size 10; 1/3 trade size

WTI (USOIL) 🛢: Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 0.20 - 0.3 (20% - 30%) - if contract size 100; 1/3 trade size

(Contract size: right-click the asset in MT4/5 -> “Specification”)

position code / 100% Transparency - 26030906A


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⚡️ LIGHTNING-RAPID UPDATE 🕯
WTI (USOIL) 🛢 (spot)
TP ✅ @: 84.89 (+$2.50 futures contract; Apr'26) ⚠️ TRIGGERED ⚠️📸
OR
CLOSE ✅ @: 84.60 - 85.50

DAX (GER_40) 🇩🇪
TP ✅ @: 23603.60

Nasdaq 100 (US100) 🇺🇸
TP ✅ @: 24821.60


President Donald Trump said that “the war is pretty much complete” and that the military operation is already "very far ahead of the initial four- to five-week timeline". He also claimed that Iran has “no navy, no communications, and no air force left.” Trump further signaled that the war could soon be over, which triggered another strong market turnaround.

Trump is set to hold a press conference Monday evening (US time) from Florida before returning to Washington.

We are seeing stocks jump higher. Oil prices crashed, but found support below $80 (WTI; spot price) – exactly as we traded it.

We now set a “tight” TP ✅ for our WTI position or close now. We are also tightening the TPs for our DAX and Nasdaq 100 positions – which are now well in profit. However, this looks more like an overreaction, and the disappointment could be significant, as Trump will also not want to signal clear weakness here.

BTC earlier hit TP ✅, and BA also reached our TP ✅.

Trump also told CBS that the Strait of Hormuz is seeing more ship traffic again. The market believes Trump may back down somewhat due to domestic concerns about persistent inflation ahead of the November midterm elections.

However, I do not expect a full de-escalation, also because it is not (!) in Israel’s interest.

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🔹 FULL OVERVIEW: Last 30 trading days 🔹

🗓 January 27 - March 09
💯 Transparent Track Record (only at SmartTrader)


——————————————


📊 5 - Week -Performance: January 27 - March 02
(= 25 full trading days)

🔹 Number of Trades/Signals: 134 (excl. NVDA)
🔹 Number of Trades Won: 114
🔹 Overall REAL Success Rate = 85.1% 🔽

Dropped from statistics: 3/3 - 100% 💎 Success Rate (January 26)
Added to statistics: 8/10 - 80% Success Rate (March 02)


——————————————


🔹 The last 5 trading days: March 03 - March 09 🔹

❌ 3.3 - USD/JPY - LONG ↗️ (TP - 157.203)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5205.29)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5114.43 me | or TP - 5111.89 | overall deep in profit)
❌ 3.3 - SLB - LONG ↗️ (TP - 49.19 or similar)
✅ 3.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24637.90)
✅ 3.3 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 387.19)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5141.99)
✅ 3.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5164.63)

6/8 = 75% Success Rate

✅ 4.3 - NAS100 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 24888.90)
✅ 4.3 - SPX500 - LONG ↗️ (TP - 6848.90)
✅ 4.3 - AMZN - LONG ↗️ (TP - 212.97 me | or TP - 212.69)
✅ 4.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5175.13)
✅ 4.3 - MU - LONG ↗️ (TP - 402.33 | or TP - 398.93)
✅ 4.3 - GOOGL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 305.29)
❌ 4.3 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️ (clsd off profit - SL - 80.61 me)

6/7 = 85.7% Success Rate


——————————————


The 8/10 session (SR = 80%) from last Monday replaced the January 26 session, when we won all three trades (3/3; 💎 SR = 100%). As a result, our🔽 success rate slightly declined to 85.1%.

NVDA opened weak but closed strongly again (+2.7%), as investors continue buying NVDA below $180.00. NVDA benefited — just like the broader market — from hopes that Trump might signal a possible easing of the current attacks on Iran, although this currently appears rather unlikely. No change in strategy was noticeable during the press conference.

All other positions visible here had already been closed at the start of the session.

🔹 OVERVIEW: Last 3 trading days 🔹

✅ 5.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 71689.60)
✅ 5.3 - SHOP - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 131.11)
✅ 5.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 24861.60 me | or 24917.60)
✅ 5.3 - XOM - LONG ↗️ (TP - 152.94 me | or 151.44 + gap)
✅ 5.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5115.53)

5/5 = 100% 💎 Success Rate

✅ 6.3 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 1.15412) 📸
✅ 6.3 - GER_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 23411.60 me |or 23511.60)
✅ 6.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (TP - 5140.13)
✅ 6.3 - MSFT - SHORT ↘️ (clsd near 408.50)
✅ 6.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 24661.60)
✅ 6.3 - XAU/USD - LONG ↗️ (clsd near 5175)
✅ 6.3 - CAC_40 - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 7956.20 + gap) 📸

7/7 = 100% 💎 Success Rate


🔹 TODAY'S TRADES 🔹

✴️ 9.3 - EUR/USD - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 1.15621 🔄
✴️ 9.3 - DAX_40 - SHORT ↘️ (open - off-profit)
👉 TP ✅ @: 23456.60 🔄
✴️ 9.3 - NAS100 - SHORT ↘️ ( (open - off-profit | +re-entry)
👉 TP ✅ @: 24708.60 🔄
✅ 9.3 - BTC/USD - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 68402.60) 📸
✅ 9.3 - BA - SHORT ↘️ (TP - 222.07) 📸
✅ 9.3 - USOIL - LONG ↗️ (TP - 84.89) 📸

3/6 - (3 open positions)


——————————————


We started this week’s session with a beautiful CAC 40 📸 profit (it could have been closed even better), and our EUR/USD 📸 from Friday also hit TP ✅.

However, we should have sold the extremely overbought oil prices today. We witnessed the largest swings in oil prices in history in USD terms. We did, however, buy the last and strongest dip perfectly (WTI 📸) after excessive optimism emerged that Trump might try to ease the war with Iran, due to concerns about the negative impact of sharply higher oil prices on the upcoming midterm elections. This was also supported by reports that tankers are indeed able to pass the Strait of Hormuz.

While oil prices rebounded sharply after the historic sell-off - which followed the largest intraday surge in USD terms ever - we still see WTI trading even below Friday’s closing price. However, it is likely that the current uncertainty around the Iran conflict, as well as whether tankers will continue to pass the Strait of Hormuz, will keep oil prices elevated, as production and supply remain constrained.

We ran into this optimism with our index SHORTs - particularly unlucky with the DAX, which almost hit TP ✅ before recovering again. Trump said the war could end soon, but not this week, while offering few additional details. Still, this slightly reduces concerns that the US intends to continue strikes until the current regime collapses. Israel, however, appears more determined to exploit Iran’s current weakness.

We can slightly widen our TPs ✅ (DAX & Nasdaq) again.

The USD also weakened, as hopes for a possible easing of the still highly volatile situation in the Middle East emerged, along with sharply lower oil prices. We are also tightening the TP ✅ for our still open EUR/USD position.

🚀 Trade of the Day 🚀

✅ 09.03 - USOIL - LONG ↗️

Movement in our favor: +6.30% 📈

❗️You could have increased your capital by: +9.41% 📈❗️

Example:
↗️ Initial Capital: $5,000 —> +$470.63 Profit (+9.41%🚀)

📊 Last 5 closed Oil trades
❌ 12.02 - USOIL - LONG ↗️
❌ 18.02 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️
✅ 02.03 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️
❌ 04.03 - USOIL - SHORT ↘️
✅ 09.03 - USOIL - LONG ↗️

❓ The possible profit and return was calculated using the “balanced standard lot size”.
Used Multiplier for this calculation: 0.25
(Multiplier Range: 0.2 – 0.3)

🖥 Calculate your appropriate trade size using the SmartTrader Lot Size Calculator

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🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SHORT (SELL) 🔽 Ethereum (ETH/USD) 🪙
⚠️ HIGH volatility; 1/2 trade size
TP ✅ @: 2029.60 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸

Recommended Entry Range ✅2057 - 2063

► Hopes for an end to the Iran war went far - likely too far - after Trump predicted a quick end to the war. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that Israel and the U.S. remain aligned in their war objectives toward Iran, despite President Trump suggesting the war could end “very soon.” Bennett added that the Israeli people have the resilience to continue the fight until Iran is eliminated as a nuclear and ballistic missile power. This objective clearly differs from what the U.S. appears to be pursuing and shows that the U.S. and Israel have very different perspectives on whether - and at what intensity - the war with Iran should continue.

► In contrast to Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated moments ago during an ongoing press conference at the Pentagon: “Today will be our most intense day of strikes inside Iran (…) Iran stands alone, and they are clearly losing.”

► Iran stated that it is not seeking a ceasefire with the United States.

► Iranian state broadcaster IRIB also reported recently that a tanker exploded near Abu Dhabi. Separately, UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that an incident was reported 36 nautical miles north of Abu Dhabi, where the captain of a vessel reported hearing a loud explosion, although there is currently no clear information about what exactly happened.

► Positive for risk sentiment remain the lower energy prices compared to yesterday’s highs. G7 energy ministers will meet in Paris on Tuesday to continue discussions about a potential release of strategic oil reserves to stabilize markets.

► We are trading the recent gains in cryptocurrencies and this time are trading ETH over BTC as we see slightly more correction potential in ETH.

Ethereum (ETH/USD): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 9–11x (900%–1100%). Always trade cryptocurrencies with caution - strong short-term moves (~7%) are possible. 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26031001A


⏱️ Signal / Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣2️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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——-

We made a beautiful ETH 🪙 trade here.

❌ STOP MISSING OUT ❌
❌ STOP MISSING OUT ❌
❌ STOP MISSING OUT ❌


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🔹 NYSE OPENING UPDATE 🔹

🔰 FREE VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SHORT (SELL) EARLY NYSE TRADING 🔽 Tesla (TSLA) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 positions size
TP ✅ @: (ONLY VIP 💎)

Recommended Entry ✅ 404.60 - 407.40


🔰 VIP SIGNAL 🕯
SELL WHEN NYSE OPENS 🔽 Qualcomm (QCOM) 🇺🇸
⚠️ HIGH Volatility; 1/2 positions size
TP ✅ @: 132.23 ⚠️ ALREADY TRIGGERED ⚠️📸

Recommended Entry Range ✅134.30 - 135.30

We continue to see improved - arguably already overly optimistic - risk sentiment following yesterday's decline in oil prices, which also helped push yields and the USD lower. In particular, Trump signalling that the end of the war with Iran could be near, as well as the G7 decision to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves, improved risk sentiment. From the Iranian side, however, it was stated that the country is “absolutely not” seeking a ceasefire.


🔹 Nvidia (-0.3%) – opens again slightly weaker but overall remains in demand and continues to find strong support around/below $180.00. NVDA finished yesterday’s session very positively (+2.72%). We remain LONG and continue to see NVDA as attractive across all time frames (in particular medium- to longer-term). Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as “BUY” and remains very bullish ahead of the chip giant’s upcoming conference.


► We continue to see Tesla as a top SHORT with clear fundamental weakness and increasingly questionable CapEx allocation. TSLA is discontinuing the Model S and X lines to focus more on Optimus Robot and xAI investments - without clear plans for corresponding returns. At the same time, weakness in Tesla’s core business (EVs) remains evident. Tesla’s energy generation segment is impressive but by no means justifies TSLA’s valuation.

► Tesla’s pursuit of FSD and AI projects makes sense in principle, but unlike with EVs years ago, TSLA is now operating in a highly competitive market and is no longer a clear pioneer.

► At a $1.3 trillion valuation, it remains remarkable how irrational investors appear given weak fundamentals. An exciting new car launch still seems far away. At the same time, competition in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics is already rising sharply - also, and particularly, from China. The future of robotics may be very promising, but TSLA risks entering a phase of negative FCF while continuing to show weak to negative revenue growth and stagnating or declining vehicle deliveries.

► TSLA opens positively (around +1%) and again clearly above the key level of $400. We expect some additional gains first but see rising resistance around/above 405.

► We also expect weakness to return to Qualcomm and are selling the chip company, which managed to gain yesterday but opens around 2% lower today. Overall, we see QCOM as bearish with further lower lows ahead and a high risk of moving back toward the 2025 lows (near $125). Bank of America reinstates QCOM as “Underperform”, citing lukewarm growth. Compared with other chip companies, there is currently little about QCOM - especially regarding its outlook - that is likely to excite investors.

Tesla (TSLA): Multiply your “standard (EUR/USD)” position size by approx. 40–45x (4,000%–4,500%) - 1/2 position size.

Qualcomm (QCOM): Multiply your usual trade size by ~ 130 - 150 (13,000% - 15,000%) - 1/2 position size.

position code / 100% Transparency - 26031002A
position code / 100% Transparency - 26031003A


⏱️ Signal / Update is DELAYED ⚠️ by: 1️⃣6️⃣0️⃣+ minutes! ⚠️
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——-

A beautiful QCOM trade hitting TP in less than 15 minutes post entry 📸


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