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Trend Scalper : Forex & Crypto

Forwarded from Trend Scalper Official

Detailed Summary & Interpretation of the Fed Decision (Dec 11, 2025)

The US Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third rate reduction in 2025. While the headline suggests easing, the overall tone of the decision was measured and cautious, rather than aggressively supportive.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that future policy moves will depend heavily on timing and evolving data, using the phrase “extend and timing” to signal flexibility rather than commitment. This indicates that the central bank is not on a pre-set path of continuous rate cuts, and any additional adjustments will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

A notable development alongside the rate cut is the Fed’s decision to resume purchases of short-term US Treasury Bills starting December 12, committing to buy $40 billion worth of T-bills over the next 30 days. While this is not formally labeled as Quantitative Easing, it does represent a targeted liquidity injection aimed at stabilizing short-term funding markets and easing financial conditions without triggering excessive risk-taking.

The voting pattern within the FOMC also carries significance. Two members, Schmid and Goolsbee, dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged, highlighting internal differences within the committee. This suggests lingering concern over inflation persistence or financial stability risks and reflects a more divided outlook than earlier in the year.

Importantly, the Fed communicated that rate cuts may be near completion for now. Powell’s comments suggest that policymakers believe policy has reached a sufficiently accommodative level and that further easing could be paused unless economic conditions deteriorate materially. This framing positions the latest cut as a calibration move, rather than the beginning of a new easing cycle.

Overall, the Fed’s actions balance two competing priorities:
supporting economic stability through limited liquidity measures, while avoiding a premature loosening that could reignite inflation or inflate asset bubbles. The decision reflects a late-cycle mindset, where caution outweighs urgency.

In essence, the Fed has provided temporary relief to financial conditions, but not a blanket signal of sustained monetary easing. The message is clear: monetary policy is now entering a wait-and-watch phase, with flexibility reserved for potential downside risks rather than guaranteed stimulus going forward.