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KASUSD Can reach $0.10 in August.

Kaspa (KASUSD) continues rising after a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) 10 days ago. Its movement appears to be highly cyclical since it first started trading and we are at the start of the bullish run of the 3rd Cycle.

As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are long and target 0.10 which is lower than the previous +900% rise but falls within a potential Channel Up that may be established, as each Cycle appears to be getting weaker.

Also the Cycles appear to be highly symmetrical as, based on the 1D RSI, we have completed the first kick-start phase of the run, similar to February 07.

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XAUUSD is trying to hold the 1D MA50. Huge rally if it succeeds.

Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the 2 month Channel Down and even made a candle closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/enYjt71D-XAUUSD-Channel-Down-still-stands-trade-within-this-range/

Currently the big development for buyers would be to hold the 1D MA50 and establish it as the new long-term Support. Based on both the 1D RSI and 1D MACD, Gold has alreayd formed a technical bottom similar to the February 27 2023 and October 21 2022 patterns. Assuming the long-term pattern is a Channel Up, this latest bottom is a technical Higher Low.

As a result, if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (1968.50), we expect a bullish extension first to Resistance 2 (2020) and then Resistance 3 and All Time High at 2080.

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EURUSD Buy the next 4H MA100 pull-back. Target 1.1400

EURUSD gave us last week a very successful buy signal (see chart below) after the 4H Double Bottom:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/5KZPHwF5-EURUSD-Started-the-new-bullish-leg-to-the-top-of-the-Channel/

Our long-term Target of 1.11350 has been hit and now we look at the next most efficient level to buy as this is an extension of the long-term Channel Up pattern to form the technical Higher High.

As you can see on this chart, this bullish wave resembles those of March 15 - April 30 and November 11 - December 30. The most optimal buy entry after those broke upwards, was as close to the 4H MA100 as possible. Now that the price closed last week above the 1W MA200, every pull-back on the 1D scale is a buy opportunity but sound risk management should be applied. Our Target for August is 1.14000.

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USDJPY Low risk trades at the bottom of the Channel Up.

The USDJPY pair is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Friday, nearly making a Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up. As long as the 1D MA200 holds, we will take a low risk/ high reward buy towards Resistance and target 144.500.

If the price closes below the 1D MA200, it would be a Channel Down bottom breach, which would translate into a sell, targeting initially the 0.618 Fibonacci at 134.000 (also above Support 1) and the 0.786 Fibonacci at 131.500 in extension (also above Support 2).

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GBPUSD Hit the Channel Up top. High probability for a pull-back.

The GBPUSD pair hit on Friday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 08 Low. At the same time it got rejected on the 1.3150 Resistance, which was the April 14 2022 High, while the 1D RSI got extremely overbought at 78.50. This calls for a short-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's bottom.

We are willing to buy there with a low risk/ high reward long, targeting Resistance 2 at 1.33000. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will take the loss and short instead towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with an early estimated target at 1.2400, although this will be modified depending on the position of the 1D MA200 at the time.

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BITCOIN The 1M MACD Bullish Cross puts a 50k target by December.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the first month following the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The previous bottom MACD Bullish Cross formations, where achieved with the price on the 0.786 (June 2019) and the 0.5 (December 2015) Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the current sequence, the price has hit the 0.5 Fib. In 2016 it took BTC 6 months to get to the 0.786 Fib, which sets a time estimate on December. The 0.786 Fib is this time at $50000 and that is our target for the end of the year.

Do you agree with the symmetry or have a different end-of-year target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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USDCAD critical 1M MA50 test. Sell higher or wait for break-out.

The USDCAD pair hit again the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the March 10 High and on top of that almost touched the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since September 13 2022. Naturally, this is a major long-term Support, which if broken (full 1M candle closing below it), invalidates the Channel Down and could start an even more aggressive sell-off. In that case, we will target Support 1 (1.29625) and Support 2 (1.28980) and after each 1D closing below them we will go all the way until Support 3 (1.27290).

If however the 1M MA50 and bottom of the Channel Down hold, we will wait for a test (rejection) of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to open a sell. If it rises more to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we will open a second sell and target Support 1 at 1.29625.

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MKRUSD under heavy Resistance. Bearish below it, bullish above.

Maker (MKRUSD) has had an incredible bullish run since June 12, being currently on the 6th straight green 1W (weekly) candle. This rally has taken a stop on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) two weeks ago but more importantly it faces an even stronger Resistance from the October 03 2022 High at 1165.

This is taken from the previous Cycle and the early 2019 fractal where after MKR again broke above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it failed to close above the October 08 2018 Resistance and turned into a wide and long-term Accumulation Phase for 1 year.

As a result, we currently believe that until the price closes a 1W candle above the Resistance, it will most likely pull-back to the 1W MA50.

If however it closes above the Resistance, this fractal will get invalidated and we will buy the bullish break-out towards Resistance 2 at 2300.

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APPLE Next stop 200 after a pull-back

Last time we bought APPLE (AAPL) on the short-term was on June 05 (see chart below), after a technical pull-back, and easily hit our 190 target:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AAPL/Cqtv5DYD-APPLE-Made-a-new-All-Time-High-Can-it-extend-the-gains/

The stock has maintained the Channel Up since late March with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in Support since January 25. Based on the 1D RSI, which has been within a Rectangle pattern while the stock is on the Channel Up, we are about to see a technical pull-back towards the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line and then rebound for a Higher High. That is a short-term opportunity for buyers to target $200.

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BITCOIN Near the 1D MA50, ready for a pump to $34000

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.

As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.

Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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The SPX/DJI ratio points to a multi-year Bull ahead.

This is a very informative analysis using the SPX/DJI ratio. In recent decades this has helped at identifying recession and expansion cycles. As this chart shows on the 1M time-frame, after each crash since 2000 and the Dot Com crash (Housing crash, China slowdown, Brexit, Oil Crsis, Trade War crash and the more recent Inflation Crisis), the ratio started to rise, meaning that the S&P500 started to outperform the heavily industrialized Dow Jones Index, which led to a new Bull Cycle.

Since the bottom of the Dot Com Crash, the ration has been trading within a 20 year Channel Up, which is limited by a Lower Highs trend-line. If broken we can start talking above a new mega expansion phase.

The 1M MACD just completed a Bullish Cross last month, suggesting that the current Bull Cycle may only be at its very beginning. Regardless of all that, we believe this is a very interesting ratio to follow and that has offered useful conclusions to you. We hope you enjoyed it!

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Buy STOCKS heavily and dump GOLD according to this ratio.

It is not the first time we use the SPX/GOLD ratio (S&P500 to XAUUSD) for a macro analysis and certainly each time it manages to offer us different and very helpful insights. This time on the 1W time-frame, the ratio is consolidating these past 2 weeks but after having broken in late May - early June above the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line.

That alone is a strong bullish signal and a look in the past 10 years shows that this is a cyclical pattern that has already been formed twice. The SPX/GOLD ratio following its market peak, enters a Descending Triangle (which is during a time of risk crisis in the markets) where Gold starts to outperform the S&P500 (stocks), a natural move as the yellow metal is a safe haven.

Then as the Triangle's Support holds, the price breaks above the Lower Highs and starts the new Bull Phase. Exception is of course the March 2020 COVID crash, which is a Black Swan event and doesn't count as technical. If it wasn't for that, the price would continue breaking above the Lower Highs as the rest of the fractals. In addition, the 1D RSI breaking above its own Lower Highs trend-line, is a similar buy signal.

Currently, since the ratio is significantly above not just the Lower Highs trend-line (RSI as well) but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we can expect it to reach the 2.68 Resistance within 6 months.

Naturally, as the title says, this means for investors to buy stocks at the expense of holding Gold. This is translated that we are in a Bullish Phase (risk-on) where buying assets like stocks offer more return than Gold, which should be converted to riskier assets.

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DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.

Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.

As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!

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BITCOIN Early August will trigger a massive rally!

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).

In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained.

Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.

In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!

Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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XAGUSD Massive success on last trade now looking for the next!

Silver (XAGUSD) gave us a very successful sell trade on our last analysis (see chart below) on April 12:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/kHE607h7-XAGUSD-First-major-sell-signal-in-3-months/

The price rebounded right before hitting the 21.715 Pivot because it touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though May's rejection was done at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down that started in August 2020, we may witness the break-out above this bearish structure finally as since the August 29 2022 bottom, a Bullish Megaphone and later a Channel Up are guiding the price action.

On top of that, Silver is completing the first 1W Golden Cross since May 2020. In any case we will not jump on this impulsively but rather wait for a clear bullish break-out signal, which will be if a 1W candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line. In this case we will target Resistance 1 (26.230) and Resistance 2 (26.935) respectively. If the price gets rejected on the Lower Highs instead, we will wait for a buy on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).

Notice also the 1W MACD Bullish Cross that is about to be formed, indicating that a continuation of the current uptrend might be more probable than a rejection.

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DOGEUSD will trade sideways for another 6 months at least.

Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) is trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), practically consolidating ever since the massive rejection of October 24 2022 on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This sideways price action is serving as the Bull Cycle's Accumulation Phase, before the final parabolic rally that will take DOGE to a new All Time High. This is at least the pattern that was followed in the previous two Cycles.

The date range from the top of the previous Cycle to roughly the end of the Accumulation Phase and the start of the Parabolic Rally has historically been 150 weeks (1050 days). A 1W MA50/ 1W MA100 Bullish Cross comes as a final confirmation to buy.

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