DXY made a huge bearish break-out. The 1W MA200 is next.
Last time we looked at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we gave a sell signal on the exact top, the Lower Highs trend-line (chart below):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/z2fANJln-DXY-Triple-bearish-rejection-102-000-by-month-s-end/
Our first target (102.000) got hit, which was basically the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that supported on the May 08 bounce. This week, that trend-line broke emphatically (also the 100.825 Support) and that is a strong bearish break-out signal. Technically the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is next, which has been our second target (98.550) since our June 04 analysis.
Notice also that even the 1W RSI broke below its 35.05 Support, a clear indication that the long-term strength has shifted to bearish.
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Last time we looked at the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we gave a sell signal on the exact top, the Lower Highs trend-line (chart below):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/z2fANJln-DXY-Triple-bearish-rejection-102-000-by-month-s-end/
Our first target (102.000) got hit, which was basically the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that supported on the May 08 bounce. This week, that trend-line broke emphatically (also the 100.825 Support) and that is a strong bearish break-out signal. Technically the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is next, which has been our second target (98.550) since our June 04 analysis.
Notice also that even the 1W RSI broke below its 35.05 Support, a clear indication that the long-term strength has shifted to bearish.
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US10Y A break below the 1D MA50 will trigger a 2nd sell-off.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence.
If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target.
Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top.
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The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence.
If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target.
Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top.
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XRPUSD Our target was smashed and the sky seems to be the limit!
Huge success for Ripple (XRPUSD) as following the favorable court ruling, the price smashed the 0.65000 target that we set on our analysis last month (see chart below), and broke aggressively above the (now former) Channel Up:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/nuvHSySX-XRPUSD-A-healthy-pull-back-before-reaching-0-65000/
We need to get to the 1W time-frame in order to understand more effectively the magnitude of this move. With the long Support of the 1W MA50 (blue trene-line), the price has formed a new Channel Up that guides it directly to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the multi-year Triangle pattern that XRP has been trading in since the 2018 All Time High. This resembles the Channel Up/ Accumulation phase of 2020 that led to the April 2021 High.
The Triangle however, resembles the pattern of 2013 - 2016, which had a parabolic break-out in 2017 that formed the All Time High. We have attached the break-outs of those two former Channels for projection purposes. The reality is that the XRP has been left so far behind the rest of the crypto market since the 2020 lawsuit, that may very well deliver a proportionally stronger rally as new liquidity gets injected into the market during this Bull Cycle.
As a result we are expecting XRP to reach 2.000 (roughly the previous Cycle High) between December 2023 and January 2024.
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Huge success for Ripple (XRPUSD) as following the favorable court ruling, the price smashed the 0.65000 target that we set on our analysis last month (see chart below), and broke aggressively above the (now former) Channel Up:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/nuvHSySX-XRPUSD-A-healthy-pull-back-before-reaching-0-65000/
We need to get to the 1W time-frame in order to understand more effectively the magnitude of this move. With the long Support of the 1W MA50 (blue trene-line), the price has formed a new Channel Up that guides it directly to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the multi-year Triangle pattern that XRP has been trading in since the 2018 All Time High. This resembles the Channel Up/ Accumulation phase of 2020 that led to the April 2021 High.
The Triangle however, resembles the pattern of 2013 - 2016, which had a parabolic break-out in 2017 that formed the All Time High. We have attached the break-outs of those two former Channels for projection purposes. The reality is that the XRP has been left so far behind the rest of the crypto market since the 2020 lawsuit, that may very well deliver a proportionally stronger rally as new liquidity gets injected into the market during this Bull Cycle.
As a result we are expecting XRP to reach 2.000 (roughly the previous Cycle High) between December 2023 and January 2024.
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We trust Fairdesk for its:
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3) Reliability
4) Support
ALGOUSD Ahead of the first major bullish break-out in 4 months.
Algorand (ALGOUSD) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 17. That is also the top of the 4-month Channel Down pattern. If broken, it may turn out into the first such major bullish break-out move this year as not only is the price rebounding off a Double Bottom but the RSI is on a huge Higher Lows line (Bullish Divergence).
As a result, we will go long if the 1D candle closes above the top of the Channel Down and target 0.15000, which is not just near Resistance 1 but more importantly the Lower Highs trend-line since the February 21 High.
On the longer-term if a 1D candle closes above that Lower Highs trend-line as well as Resistance 1, we will buy again targeting 0.18000 (within Resistance 2 and the 0.382 Fibonacci).
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Algorand (ALGOUSD) has hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 17. That is also the top of the 4-month Channel Down pattern. If broken, it may turn out into the first such major bullish break-out move this year as not only is the price rebounding off a Double Bottom but the RSI is on a huge Higher Lows line (Bullish Divergence).
As a result, we will go long if the 1D candle closes above the top of the Channel Down and target 0.15000, which is not just near Resistance 1 but more importantly the Lower Highs trend-line since the February 21 High.
On the longer-term if a 1D candle closes above that Lower Highs trend-line as well as Resistance 1, we will buy again targeting 0.18000 (within Resistance 2 and the 0.382 Fibonacci).
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KASUSD Can reach $0.10 in August.
Kaspa (KASUSD) continues rising after a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) 10 days ago. Its movement appears to be highly cyclical since it first started trading and we are at the start of the bullish run of the 3rd Cycle.
As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are long and target 0.10 which is lower than the previous +900% rise but falls within a potential Channel Up that may be established, as each Cycle appears to be getting weaker.
Also the Cycles appear to be highly symmetrical as, based on the 1D RSI, we have completed the first kick-start phase of the run, similar to February 07.
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Kaspa (KASUSD) continues rising after a rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) 10 days ago. Its movement appears to be highly cyclical since it first started trading and we are at the start of the bullish run of the 3rd Cycle.
As long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are long and target 0.10 which is lower than the previous +900% rise but falls within a potential Channel Up that may be established, as each Cycle appears to be getting weaker.
Also the Cycles appear to be highly symmetrical as, based on the 1D RSI, we have completed the first kick-start phase of the run, similar to February 07.
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XAUUSD is trying to hold the 1D MA50. Huge rally if it succeeds.
Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the 2 month Channel Down and even made a candle closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/enYjt71D-XAUUSD-Channel-Down-still-stands-trade-within-this-range/
Currently the big development for buyers would be to hold the 1D MA50 and establish it as the new long-term Support. Based on both the 1D RSI and 1D MACD, Gold has alreayd formed a technical bottom similar to the February 27 2023 and October 21 2022 patterns. Assuming the long-term pattern is a Channel Up, this latest bottom is a technical Higher Low.
As a result, if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (1968.50), we expect a bullish extension first to Resistance 2 (2020) and then Resistance 3 and All Time High at 2080.
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Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke above the 2 month Channel Down and even made a candle closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/enYjt71D-XAUUSD-Channel-Down-still-stands-trade-within-this-range/
Currently the big development for buyers would be to hold the 1D MA50 and establish it as the new long-term Support. Based on both the 1D RSI and 1D MACD, Gold has alreayd formed a technical bottom similar to the February 27 2023 and October 21 2022 patterns. Assuming the long-term pattern is a Channel Up, this latest bottom is a technical Higher Low.
As a result, if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (1968.50), we expect a bullish extension first to Resistance 2 (2020) and then Resistance 3 and All Time High at 2080.
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EURUSD Buy the next 4H MA100 pull-back. Target 1.1400
EURUSD gave us last week a very successful buy signal (see chart below) after the 4H Double Bottom:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/5KZPHwF5-EURUSD-Started-the-new-bullish-leg-to-the-top-of-the-Channel/
Our long-term Target of 1.11350 has been hit and now we look at the next most efficient level to buy as this is an extension of the long-term Channel Up pattern to form the technical Higher High.
As you can see on this chart, this bullish wave resembles those of March 15 - April 30 and November 11 - December 30. The most optimal buy entry after those broke upwards, was as close to the 4H MA100 as possible. Now that the price closed last week above the 1W MA200, every pull-back on the 1D scale is a buy opportunity but sound risk management should be applied. Our Target for August is 1.14000.
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EURUSD gave us last week a very successful buy signal (see chart below) after the 4H Double Bottom:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/5KZPHwF5-EURUSD-Started-the-new-bullish-leg-to-the-top-of-the-Channel/
Our long-term Target of 1.11350 has been hit and now we look at the next most efficient level to buy as this is an extension of the long-term Channel Up pattern to form the technical Higher High.
As you can see on this chart, this bullish wave resembles those of March 15 - April 30 and November 11 - December 30. The most optimal buy entry after those broke upwards, was as close to the 4H MA100 as possible. Now that the price closed last week above the 1W MA200, every pull-back on the 1D scale is a buy opportunity but sound risk management should be applied. Our Target for August is 1.14000.
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USDJPY Low risk trades at the bottom of the Channel Up.
The USDJPY pair is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Friday, nearly making a Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up. As long as the 1D MA200 holds, we will take a low risk/ high reward buy towards Resistance and target 144.500.
If the price closes below the 1D MA200, it would be a Channel Down bottom breach, which would translate into a sell, targeting initially the 0.618 Fibonacci at 134.000 (also above Support 1) and the 0.786 Fibonacci at 131.500 in extension (also above Support 2).
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The USDJPY pair is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Friday, nearly making a Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up. As long as the 1D MA200 holds, we will take a low risk/ high reward buy towards Resistance and target 144.500.
If the price closes below the 1D MA200, it would be a Channel Down bottom breach, which would translate into a sell, targeting initially the 0.618 Fibonacci at 134.000 (also above Support 1) and the 0.786 Fibonacci at 131.500 in extension (also above Support 2).
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GBPUSD Hit the Channel Up top. High probability for a pull-back.
The GBPUSD pair hit on Friday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 08 Low. At the same time it got rejected on the 1.3150 Resistance, which was the April 14 2022 High, while the 1D RSI got extremely overbought at 78.50. This calls for a short-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's bottom.
We are willing to buy there with a low risk/ high reward long, targeting Resistance 2 at 1.33000. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will take the loss and short instead towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with an early estimated target at 1.2400, although this will be modified depending on the position of the 1D MA200 at the time.
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The GBPUSD pair hit on Friday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the March 08 Low. At the same time it got rejected on the 1.3150 Resistance, which was the April 14 2022 High, while the 1D RSI got extremely overbought at 78.50. This calls for a short-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's bottom.
We are willing to buy there with a low risk/ high reward long, targeting Resistance 2 at 1.33000. If however the price breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will take the loss and short instead towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with an early estimated target at 1.2400, although this will be modified depending on the position of the 1D MA200 at the time.
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BITCOIN The 1M MACD Bullish Cross puts a 50k target by December.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the first month following the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The previous bottom MACD Bullish Cross formations, where achieved with the price on the 0.786 (June 2019) and the 0.5 (December 2015) Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the current sequence, the price has hit the 0.5 Fib. In 2016 it took BTC 6 months to get to the 0.786 Fib, which sets a time estimate on December. The 0.786 Fib is this time at $50000 and that is our target for the end of the year.
Do you agree with the symmetry or have a different end-of-year target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the first month following the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The previous bottom MACD Bullish Cross formations, where achieved with the price on the 0.786 (June 2019) and the 0.5 (December 2015) Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the current sequence, the price has hit the 0.5 Fib. In 2016 it took BTC 6 months to get to the 0.786 Fib, which sets a time estimate on December. The 0.786 Fib is this time at $50000 and that is our target for the end of the year.
Do you agree with the symmetry or have a different end-of-year target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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USDCAD critical 1M MA50 test. Sell higher or wait for break-out.
The USDCAD pair hit again the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the March 10 High and on top of that almost touched the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since September 13 2022. Naturally, this is a major long-term Support, which if broken (full 1M candle closing below it), invalidates the Channel Down and could start an even more aggressive sell-off. In that case, we will target Support 1 (1.29625) and Support 2 (1.28980) and after each 1D closing below them we will go all the way until Support 3 (1.27290).
If however the 1M MA50 and bottom of the Channel Down hold, we will wait for a test (rejection) of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to open a sell. If it rises more to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we will open a second sell and target Support 1 at 1.29625.
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The USDCAD pair hit again the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the March 10 High and on top of that almost touched the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since September 13 2022. Naturally, this is a major long-term Support, which if broken (full 1M candle closing below it), invalidates the Channel Down and could start an even more aggressive sell-off. In that case, we will target Support 1 (1.29625) and Support 2 (1.28980) and after each 1D closing below them we will go all the way until Support 3 (1.27290).
If however the 1M MA50 and bottom of the Channel Down hold, we will wait for a test (rejection) of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to open a sell. If it rises more to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we will open a second sell and target Support 1 at 1.29625.
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MKRUSD under heavy Resistance. Bearish below it, bullish above.
Maker (MKRUSD) has had an incredible bullish run since June 12, being currently on the 6th straight green 1W (weekly) candle. This rally has taken a stop on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) two weeks ago but more importantly it faces an even stronger Resistance from the October 03 2022 High at 1165.
This is taken from the previous Cycle and the early 2019 fractal where after MKR again broke above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it failed to close above the October 08 2018 Resistance and turned into a wide and long-term Accumulation Phase for 1 year.
As a result, we currently believe that until the price closes a 1W candle above the Resistance, it will most likely pull-back to the 1W MA50.
If however it closes above the Resistance, this fractal will get invalidated and we will buy the bullish break-out towards Resistance 2 at 2300.
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Maker (MKRUSD) has had an incredible bullish run since June 12, being currently on the 6th straight green 1W (weekly) candle. This rally has taken a stop on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) two weeks ago but more importantly it faces an even stronger Resistance from the October 03 2022 High at 1165.
This is taken from the previous Cycle and the early 2019 fractal where after MKR again broke above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it failed to close above the October 08 2018 Resistance and turned into a wide and long-term Accumulation Phase for 1 year.
As a result, we currently believe that until the price closes a 1W candle above the Resistance, it will most likely pull-back to the 1W MA50.
If however it closes above the Resistance, this fractal will get invalidated and we will buy the bullish break-out towards Resistance 2 at 2300.
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APPLE Next stop 200 after a pull-back
Last time we bought APPLE (AAPL) on the short-term was on June 05 (see chart below), after a technical pull-back, and easily hit our 190 target:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AAPL/Cqtv5DYD-APPLE-Made-a-new-All-Time-High-Can-it-extend-the-gains/
The stock has maintained the Channel Up since late March with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in Support since January 25. Based on the 1D RSI, which has been within a Rectangle pattern while the stock is on the Channel Up, we are about to see a technical pull-back towards the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line and then rebound for a Higher High. That is a short-term opportunity for buyers to target $200.
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Last time we bought APPLE (AAPL) on the short-term was on June 05 (see chart below), after a technical pull-back, and easily hit our 190 target:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AAPL/Cqtv5DYD-APPLE-Made-a-new-All-Time-High-Can-it-extend-the-gains/
The stock has maintained the Channel Up since late March with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in Support since January 25. Based on the 1D RSI, which has been within a Rectangle pattern while the stock is on the Channel Up, we are about to see a technical pull-back towards the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line and then rebound for a Higher High. That is a short-term opportunity for buyers to target $200.
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BITCOIN Near the 1D MA50, ready for a pump to $34000
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.
As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.
Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.
As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.
Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The SPX/DJI ratio points to a multi-year Bull ahead.
This is a very informative analysis using the SPX/DJI ratio. In recent decades this has helped at identifying recession and expansion cycles. As this chart shows on the 1M time-frame, after each crash since 2000 and the Dot Com crash (Housing crash, China slowdown, Brexit, Oil Crsis, Trade War crash and the more recent Inflation Crisis), the ratio started to rise, meaning that the S&P500 started to outperform the heavily industrialized Dow Jones Index, which led to a new Bull Cycle.
Since the bottom of the Dot Com Crash, the ration has been trading within a 20 year Channel Up, which is limited by a Lower Highs trend-line. If broken we can start talking above a new mega expansion phase.
The 1M MACD just completed a Bullish Cross last month, suggesting that the current Bull Cycle may only be at its very beginning. Regardless of all that, we believe this is a very interesting ratio to follow and that has offered useful conclusions to you. We hope you enjoyed it!
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This is a very informative analysis using the SPX/DJI ratio. In recent decades this has helped at identifying recession and expansion cycles. As this chart shows on the 1M time-frame, after each crash since 2000 and the Dot Com crash (Housing crash, China slowdown, Brexit, Oil Crsis, Trade War crash and the more recent Inflation Crisis), the ratio started to rise, meaning that the S&P500 started to outperform the heavily industrialized Dow Jones Index, which led to a new Bull Cycle.
Since the bottom of the Dot Com Crash, the ration has been trading within a 20 year Channel Up, which is limited by a Lower Highs trend-line. If broken we can start talking above a new mega expansion phase.
The 1M MACD just completed a Bullish Cross last month, suggesting that the current Bull Cycle may only be at its very beginning. Regardless of all that, we believe this is a very interesting ratio to follow and that has offered useful conclusions to you. We hope you enjoyed it!
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Buy STOCKS heavily and dump GOLD according to this ratio.
It is not the first time we use the SPX/GOLD ratio (S&P500 to XAUUSD) for a macro analysis and certainly each time it manages to offer us different and very helpful insights. This time on the 1W time-frame, the ratio is consolidating these past 2 weeks but after having broken in late May - early June above the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line.
That alone is a strong bullish signal and a look in the past 10 years shows that this is a cyclical pattern that has already been formed twice. The SPX/GOLD ratio following its market peak, enters a Descending Triangle (which is during a time of risk crisis in the markets) where Gold starts to outperform the S&P500 (stocks), a natural move as the yellow metal is a safe haven.
Then as the Triangle's Support holds, the price breaks above the Lower Highs and starts the new Bull Phase. Exception is of course the March 2020 COVID crash, which is a Black Swan event and doesn't count as technical. If it wasn't for that, the price would continue breaking above the Lower Highs as the rest of the fractals. In addition, the 1D RSI breaking above its own Lower Highs trend-line, is a similar buy signal.
Currently, since the ratio is significantly above not just the Lower Highs trend-line (RSI as well) but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we can expect it to reach the 2.68 Resistance within 6 months.
Naturally, as the title says, this means for investors to buy stocks at the expense of holding Gold. This is translated that we are in a Bullish Phase (risk-on) where buying assets like stocks offer more return than Gold, which should be converted to riskier assets.
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It is not the first time we use the SPX/GOLD ratio (S&P500 to XAUUSD) for a macro analysis and certainly each time it manages to offer us different and very helpful insights. This time on the 1W time-frame, the ratio is consolidating these past 2 weeks but after having broken in late May - early June above the 2022 Lower Highs trend-line.
That alone is a strong bullish signal and a look in the past 10 years shows that this is a cyclical pattern that has already been formed twice. The SPX/GOLD ratio following its market peak, enters a Descending Triangle (which is during a time of risk crisis in the markets) where Gold starts to outperform the S&P500 (stocks), a natural move as the yellow metal is a safe haven.
Then as the Triangle's Support holds, the price breaks above the Lower Highs and starts the new Bull Phase. Exception is of course the March 2020 COVID crash, which is a Black Swan event and doesn't count as technical. If it wasn't for that, the price would continue breaking above the Lower Highs as the rest of the fractals. In addition, the 1D RSI breaking above its own Lower Highs trend-line, is a similar buy signal.
Currently, since the ratio is significantly above not just the Lower Highs trend-line (RSI as well) but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we can expect it to reach the 2.68 Resistance within 6 months.
Naturally, as the title says, this means for investors to buy stocks at the expense of holding Gold. This is translated that we are in a Bullish Phase (risk-on) where buying assets like stocks offer more return than Gold, which should be converted to riskier assets.
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DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.
Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.
As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!
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Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.
As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!
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BITCOIN Early August will trigger a massive rally!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).
In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained.
Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.
In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!
Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).
In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained.
Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.
In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!
Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
SUBSCRIBE ✍️ and SHARE 🙌 if you liked this idea!