NZDJPY Support break-outs determine our trades
NZDJPY gave us last time (May 05) a very accurate buy signal that hit the target (see chart below) and even broke the 1 year Resistance Zone:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/0JGV2YVA-NZDJPY-Buy-opportunity-with-its-invalidation/
The pattern that emerged is a Bullish Megaphone, whose latest Higher Low leg is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having closed all candles above it. As long as it holds, we remain buyers and target Resistance 1 (89.700). If the price breaks below Support 1 (86.230) we will sell and target the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone at 85.330, near the 1D MA200. A 1D candle close below that, will be a bearish break-out signal for us and we will sell again, targeting Support 2 (83.540).
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NZDJPY gave us last time (May 05) a very accurate buy signal that hit the target (see chart below) and even broke the 1 year Resistance Zone:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/0JGV2YVA-NZDJPY-Buy-opportunity-with-its-invalidation/
The pattern that emerged is a Bullish Megaphone, whose latest Higher Low leg is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having closed all candles above it. As long as it holds, we remain buyers and target Resistance 1 (89.700). If the price breaks below Support 1 (86.230) we will sell and target the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone at 85.330, near the 1D MA200. A 1D candle close below that, will be a bearish break-out signal for us and we will sell again, targeting Support 2 (83.540).
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S&P500 This new Channel Up can lead it to the All Time High.
The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs, however that can only be confirmed after the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, which is exactly what happened on those fractals.
Until then, and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting (has been unbroken since March 29), the more recent Channel Up 2, can lead the price to the 4820 All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. Of course before that Resistance 1 (March 29 2022 High) is present at 4640, so since Channel Up 2 is also on its top (Higher Highs trend-line), we can consider a Megaphone (sideways) consolidation, similar to what took place in April. As long as its hits the 1D MA50 and rebounds, we will be bullish, targeting 4820 on the new bullish leg (green arc).
On the other hand if the index does close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 and the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 4250.
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The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs, however that can only be confirmed after the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, which is exactly what happened on those fractals.
Until then, and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting (has been unbroken since March 29), the more recent Channel Up 2, can lead the price to the 4820 All Time High (ATH) of January 04 2022. Of course before that Resistance 1 (March 29 2022 High) is present at 4640, so since Channel Up 2 is also on its top (Higher Highs trend-line), we can consider a Megaphone (sideways) consolidation, similar to what took place in April. As long as its hits the 1D MA50 and rebounds, we will be bullish, targeting 4820 on the new bullish leg (green arc).
On the other hand if the index does close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 and the 1D RSI breaks below its Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 4250.
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SOLANA is staging a hyper rally and few are noticing this!
Solana (SOLUSD) has made an important bullish break-out sequence this month as not only did it break above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (essentially the Resistance of the Bear Cycle) on the week of July 03, but also broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the following week for the first time since April 04 2022.
That was a Double Break-out sequence, which will be capitalized if the 1W MA50 holds this week as a Support upon the first test. So far that seems to be the case. If successful then SOL is staging a new hyper rally that will lead it into the new Bull Cycle. We are buying, expecting the first stop to be the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 65.000. This is almost as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a standard intermediate technical Resistance during market recoveries.
We want to illustrate two key factors here. First the 1W RSI has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a technical bullish reversal formation seen on market bottoms. Second, there is a Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since May 2020, which has made direct contact (Higher Lows) and supported on December 26 2022 and June 05 2023. This may have gone unnoticed by the majority, but seems to be the driving force behind SOL's Cycles and can be the Support that will lead it higher again.
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Solana (SOLUSD) has made an important bullish break-out sequence this month as not only did it break above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (essentially the Resistance of the Bear Cycle) on the week of July 03, but also broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) the following week for the first time since April 04 2022.
That was a Double Break-out sequence, which will be capitalized if the 1W MA50 holds this week as a Support upon the first test. So far that seems to be the case. If successful then SOL is staging a new hyper rally that will lead it into the new Bull Cycle. We are buying, expecting the first stop to be the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) at 65.000. This is almost as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a standard intermediate technical Resistance during market recoveries.
We want to illustrate two key factors here. First the 1W RSI has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a technical bullish reversal formation seen on market bottoms. Second, there is a Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since May 2020, which has made direct contact (Higher Lows) and supported on December 26 2022 and June 05 2023. This may have gone unnoticed by the majority, but seems to be the driving force behind SOL's Cycles and can be the Support that will lead it higher again.
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AUDNZD Sell signal on the Symmetrical Resistance
The AUDNZD pair is consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight 1D candles, having formed a 1D Golden Cross last week. Even though that is a technically bullish formation, as long as it doesn't break above the 1.093250 Symmetrical Resistance, a rejection seems more probable. As long as it holds, we will sell and target the Higher Lows trend-line at 1.06200.
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The AUDNZD pair is consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight 1D candles, having formed a 1D Golden Cross last week. Even though that is a technically bullish formation, as long as it doesn't break above the 1.093250 Symmetrical Resistance, a rejection seems more probable. As long as it holds, we will sell and target the Higher Lows trend-line at 1.06200.
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ABBVIE Any pull-back is a buy opportunity.
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) is having the strongest 1D candle since October 13 2022, hitting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost three months. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down and this one is the bullish leg to a new Lower High.
The 1D RSI has breached into overbought (70.00>) territory so any pull-back is a buy, even on the current levels. Our medium-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (158.50) similar to what happened on the December 09 2022 High.
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AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) is having the strongest 1D candle since October 13 2022, hitting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost three months. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down and this one is the bullish leg to a new Lower High.
The 1D RSI has breached into overbought (70.00>) territory so any pull-back is a buy, even on the current levels. Our medium-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (158.50) similar to what happened on the December 09 2022 High.
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COMCAST Hit our long-term target. Expecting a pull-back.
It has been a worthwhile wait on our previous COMCAST (CMCSA) buy signal (see chart below) that we gave on April 28, but it finally hit the $44.00 target today:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CMCSA/sFJBHOXJ-COMCAST-eyeing-an-end-of-quarter-44-00-target/
The trend is unchanged within the Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 bottom, but as the 1D RSI turned extremely overbought (above 70.00), it gives a sell signal since every overbought break-out delivered a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least. The 1D MA50 is currently on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and moving parallel to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. We project the pull-back to be within 43.50-42.50. After that, our buy target will be Resistance 1 at 48.50.
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It has been a worthwhile wait on our previous COMCAST (CMCSA) buy signal (see chart below) that we gave on April 28, but it finally hit the $44.00 target today:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CMCSA/sFJBHOXJ-COMCAST-eyeing-an-end-of-quarter-44-00-target/
The trend is unchanged within the Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 bottom, but as the 1D RSI turned extremely overbought (above 70.00), it gives a sell signal since every overbought break-out delivered a pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at least. The 1D MA50 is currently on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and moving parallel to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. We project the pull-back to be within 43.50-42.50. After that, our buy target will be Resistance 1 at 48.50.
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BITCOIN Our China bonds ratio is giving a huge buy signal
It is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the blue trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/tZpI8N5s-BITCOIN-Yuan-and-China-bond-yields-point-to-rally-ahead/
With the addition of the Sine Waves to better illustrate the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio, we can see that it matches almost perfectly BTC's Cycles. Every time it bottoms, BTC bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see that the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on Bitcoin.
At the moment the ratio is pulling back in a similar fashion as March 2013, January 2017 and December 2019. On those occasions Bitcoin started a Parabolic Rally afterwards.
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It is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the blue trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/tZpI8N5s-BITCOIN-Yuan-and-China-bond-yields-point-to-rally-ahead/
With the addition of the Sine Waves to better illustrate the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio, we can see that it matches almost perfectly BTC's Cycles. Every time it bottoms, BTC bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see that the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on Bitcoin.
At the moment the ratio is pulling back in a similar fashion as March 2013, January 2017 and December 2019. On those occasions Bitcoin started a Parabolic Rally afterwards.
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IMXUSD Hit the 1D MA200, buy signal if it closes above it.
Immutable X (IMXUSD) is trading within a Channel Up pattern for exactly 1 year (since the July 30 2022 High). The price hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), breaking above the horizontal 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level while reaching the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level. This is a sequence of Higher Highs, thus a technical uptrend.
The last time when all those conditions were met was on January 22 2023 and what followed was an aggressive rally nearly as high as the previous Channel Up top. If the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA200, we will buy and target the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level at 1.3850, also at the top of the 0.5 - 0.618 Channel Fib Zone.
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Immutable X (IMXUSD) is trading within a Channel Up pattern for exactly 1 year (since the July 30 2022 High). The price hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), breaking above the horizontal 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level while reaching the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level. This is a sequence of Higher Highs, thus a technical uptrend.
The last time when all those conditions were met was on January 22 2023 and what followed was an aggressive rally nearly as high as the previous Channel Up top. If the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA200, we will buy and target the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level at 1.3850, also at the top of the 0.5 - 0.618 Channel Fib Zone.
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GBPAUD Buy signal at the bottom of the Channel Up
The GBPAUD pair gave us an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (see chart below) on May 9:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPAUD/OvE3oIhb-GBPAUD-Channel-Up-calling-for-a-buy-but-short-if-it-breaks-lower/
The price remains within the 6 month Channel Up pattern and is currently rising after a Higher Low formation on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. This is a bullish signal, based on which we are targeting the 1.97300 Resistance. That would be a +4.65% rise from the bottom, which as this chart shows, has happened twice.
If however the price breaks below the Channel Up, we will open a short when it breaches the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is holding as Support since March 03 2023, and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.83150. That will make also contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An early sell signal will be when the 1D RSI breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 07 2022.
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The GBPAUD pair gave us an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (see chart below) on May 9:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPAUD/OvE3oIhb-GBPAUD-Channel-Up-calling-for-a-buy-but-short-if-it-breaks-lower/
The price remains within the 6 month Channel Up pattern and is currently rising after a Higher Low formation on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. This is a bullish signal, based on which we are targeting the 1.97300 Resistance. That would be a +4.65% rise from the bottom, which as this chart shows, has happened twice.
If however the price breaks below the Channel Up, we will open a short when it breaches the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is holding as Support since March 03 2023, and target the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.83150. That will make also contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An early sell signal will be when the 1D RSI breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 07 2022.
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COPPER Two year Triangle may finally break.
Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal.
If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800.
As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support.
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Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal.
If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800.
As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support.
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FTSE Ahead of a major bullish break-out.
The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) is consolidating above the Support of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI at 66.250. This is the symmetrical level is was trading at during the November 04 - 09 2022 consolidation. Both near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
That fractal eventually broke upwards, hit the Lower Highs trend-line (the dominant Resistance) and extended to Fib 2.0 even marginally surpassing the Resistance of the last Lower High.
We are going long on that buy signal and target the 7900 (Fib 2.0).
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The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) is consolidating above the Support of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI at 66.250. This is the symmetrical level is was trading at during the November 04 - 09 2022 consolidation. Both near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
That fractal eventually broke upwards, hit the Lower Highs trend-line (the dominant Resistance) and extended to Fib 2.0 even marginally surpassing the Resistance of the last Lower High.
We are going long on that buy signal and target the 7900 (Fib 2.0).
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BITCOIN Holding key Cycle Support, preparing for 35k and 43k!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is above the 0.5 Fibonacci Lower Lows trend-line that provided Support numerous times during the previous Cycle but when it finally closed a 1W candle below it (June 06 2022) it started the final bearish sequence.
Currently this is very positive for the upside's chances as the price has cleared the 0.5 Fib for more than a month and is currently on the 0 Fib level that closed all 1W candles above it from May 17 2021 to June 28 2021. BTC has managed to close above that for 5 straight week and if it repeats that again, we can see the final two bullish waves to 35000 and 43000 taking place. The key factor for such a price rally is the Higher Lows trend-line since the market bottom which is holding, while the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been re-tested in more than 4 months.
In fact, trading below the 1W MA50 was the majority of the Bear Cycle's price action (red arc). Since the closing above it 4 months ago we can argue that this is how the Bull Cycle's price action will unfold (green arc).
So do you think that the 0.0 Fib will give Bitcoin the necessary push for the 35k and 43k levels? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is above the 0.5 Fibonacci Lower Lows trend-line that provided Support numerous times during the previous Cycle but when it finally closed a 1W candle below it (June 06 2022) it started the final bearish sequence.
Currently this is very positive for the upside's chances as the price has cleared the 0.5 Fib for more than a month and is currently on the 0 Fib level that closed all 1W candles above it from May 17 2021 to June 28 2021. BTC has managed to close above that for 5 straight week and if it repeats that again, we can see the final two bullish waves to 35000 and 43000 taking place. The key factor for such a price rally is the Higher Lows trend-line since the market bottom which is holding, while the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been re-tested in more than 4 months.
In fact, trading below the 1W MA50 was the majority of the Bear Cycle's price action (red arc). Since the closing above it 4 months ago we can argue that this is how the Bull Cycle's price action will unfold (green arc).
So do you think that the 0.0 Fib will give Bitcoin the necessary push for the 35k and 43k levels? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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PEPSICO Testing Lower Highs. Strong buy if broken.
Pepsico Inc (PEP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for more than 1 year. Currently it has been rejected on the internal Lower Highs trend-line from the May 15 High. As you can see within this Channel Up, every time the price tested such Lower Highs (3 occasions), it had an initial rejection (twice to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)) and then broke out. On all occasions, it hit the dotted Higher Highs trend-line, just below the top of the Channel Up. The 1D RSI is on a similar pattern with all those past fractals.
As a result, we will be ready to buy after it breaks above the Lower Highs and target the dotted trend-line at 200.00.
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Pepsico Inc (PEP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for more than 1 year. Currently it has been rejected on the internal Lower Highs trend-line from the May 15 High. As you can see within this Channel Up, every time the price tested such Lower Highs (3 occasions), it had an initial rejection (twice to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)) and then broke out. On all occasions, it hit the dotted Higher Highs trend-line, just below the top of the Channel Up. The 1D RSI is on a similar pattern with all those past fractals.
As a result, we will be ready to buy after it breaks above the Lower Highs and target the dotted trend-line at 200.00.
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BITCOIN Amazing historic symmetry targeting $49000 in November
This is a break-through analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame that we posted a while ago but couldn't look more relevant today and can accurately explain the low consolidation of the last few weeks. It compares the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017.
** Amazing Cycle symmetry justifies current consolidation **
As you see there is so far an astonishing symmetry between the two, with the current price consolidation, after almost hitting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, resembling that of late February - early April 2016. For the Fibonacci calculations we have used the price top and bottom as suggested by the 1W RSI, which is the backbone of the analysis. This indicates that the Cycle Top (on RSI terms) was on the week of April 12 2021 (and not Nov 08 2021) while the Cycle Bottom was on the week of June 13 2022 (and not in November 2022, which was in the aftermath of the FTX crash).
** The Phases of the Cycle **
So far the three Phases have lasted almost the same time. We are now half-way through Phase 4 (green), which in 2016 lasted for 28 weeks and on its end hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, this is a highly probable target, with the 0.786 Fib being at $49000 and the 28 week span ends on November 13 2023. See how similar the 1W RSI fractals are between the two, forming a Triangle pattern with top and bottom on the exact same values.
** Halving, 1W MA50 and conclusion **
Basically Phase 4 is the first bullish attempt of BTC within the new Bull Cycle, after Phase 3 (yellow) which is the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the first Accumulation period. Phase 4 is essentially the prologue of the market before the parabolic rally and the introduction to the Halving event.
See the rest of the analysis on our tradingview channel: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ReJCthWi-BITCOIN-Amazing-historic-symmetry-targeting-49000-in-November/
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This is a break-through analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame that we posted a while ago but couldn't look more relevant today and can accurately explain the low consolidation of the last few weeks. It compares the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017.
** Amazing Cycle symmetry justifies current consolidation **
As you see there is so far an astonishing symmetry between the two, with the current price consolidation, after almost hitting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, resembling that of late February - early April 2016. For the Fibonacci calculations we have used the price top and bottom as suggested by the 1W RSI, which is the backbone of the analysis. This indicates that the Cycle Top (on RSI terms) was on the week of April 12 2021 (and not Nov 08 2021) while the Cycle Bottom was on the week of June 13 2022 (and not in November 2022, which was in the aftermath of the FTX crash).
** The Phases of the Cycle **
So far the three Phases have lasted almost the same time. We are now half-way through Phase 4 (green), which in 2016 lasted for 28 weeks and on its end hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, this is a highly probable target, with the 0.786 Fib being at $49000 and the 28 week span ends on November 13 2023. See how similar the 1W RSI fractals are between the two, forming a Triangle pattern with top and bottom on the exact same values.
** Halving, 1W MA50 and conclusion **
Basically Phase 4 is the first bullish attempt of BTC within the new Bull Cycle, after Phase 3 (yellow) which is the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the first Accumulation period. Phase 4 is essentially the prologue of the market before the parabolic rally and the introduction to the Halving event.
See the rest of the analysis on our tradingview channel: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ReJCthWi-BITCOIN-Amazing-historic-symmetry-targeting-49000-in-November/
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EURUSD Buy next week. Downtrend not finished.
The EURUSD pair is about to form a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is the chart that perhaps serves at understanding the current situation better than any other. It's not just the Channel Up pattern since November 2022 that is driving the trend but also the candle action on weekly terms. As you can see after each Channel Up top (Higher High), doesn't just decline by -4.37% on average but it bottoms 3 weeks after the strongest red candle on the Higher High rejection.
On the current pull-back sequence, we have had this candle 2 weeks ago so the next one should be the bottom. The next Support is the low of the July 03 1W candle which is 1.08340, so we are sticking with our 1.08450 Sell Target that is not only as close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up as possible but also above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) that recently supported the pair for 3 weeks in a row (weeks of June 19 to July 03).
See how accurate fractal approach is on our EURUSD analysis, as we accurately caught and bought on the pair's last bottom:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/Eszc41bQ-EURUSD-Started-the-bottom-phase-Take-advantage-of-this-pattern/
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The EURUSD pair is about to form a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is the chart that perhaps serves at understanding the current situation better than any other. It's not just the Channel Up pattern since November 2022 that is driving the trend but also the candle action on weekly terms. As you can see after each Channel Up top (Higher High), doesn't just decline by -4.37% on average but it bottoms 3 weeks after the strongest red candle on the Higher High rejection.
On the current pull-back sequence, we have had this candle 2 weeks ago so the next one should be the bottom. The next Support is the low of the July 03 1W candle which is 1.08340, so we are sticking with our 1.08450 Sell Target that is not only as close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up as possible but also above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) that recently supported the pair for 3 weeks in a row (weeks of June 19 to July 03).
See how accurate fractal approach is on our EURUSD analysis, as we accurately caught and bought on the pair's last bottom:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/Eszc41bQ-EURUSD-Started-the-bottom-phase-Take-advantage-of-this-pattern/
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XAUUSD 1D MA50 in Support but MACD Bearish Cross threat.
Gold (XAUUSD) kept the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support as it made a Friday rebound exactly on it. At the same time the 1D RSI bounced on its Higher Lows trend-line since the June 29 bottom.
As long as the price is closing above the 1D MA50 (and obviously the 1943 Support that was formed), the trend is bullish towards the Lower Highs with a 1978 short-term target. In order to extend the uptrend, a 1D candle needs to close above Resistance 1 (1987.50).
The biggest bearish signal however is the Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD that is about to be formed. This means that if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, it will be a sell signal towards Support 2 at 1913. If the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supports on Support 2 and 3, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
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Gold (XAUUSD) kept the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support as it made a Friday rebound exactly on it. At the same time the 1D RSI bounced on its Higher Lows trend-line since the June 29 bottom.
As long as the price is closing above the 1D MA50 (and obviously the 1943 Support that was formed), the trend is bullish towards the Lower Highs with a 1978 short-term target. In order to extend the uptrend, a 1D candle needs to close above Resistance 1 (1987.50).
The biggest bearish signal however is the Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD that is about to be formed. This means that if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, it will be a sell signal towards Support 2 at 1913. If the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supports on Support 2 and 3, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
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XPTUSD Long-term buy opportunity near 1 year Support.
Platinum (XPTUSD) is having a strong start to the week following a streak of 2 red 1W candles rejected on both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the obvious 1W Golden Cross pattern that those two are aiming to complete, the price got again near the 895 - 903 Support Zone, which has been closing all 1W candles above since September 2022.
With the 1W RSI on a bottom sequence similar to the February 2023, December 2021 and September 2021 fractals, we consider this an excellent long-term buy opportunity. Our target is the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 1100.
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Platinum (XPTUSD) is having a strong start to the week following a streak of 2 red 1W candles rejected on both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the obvious 1W Golden Cross pattern that those two are aiming to complete, the price got again near the 895 - 903 Support Zone, which has been closing all 1W candles above since September 2022.
With the 1W RSI on a bottom sequence similar to the February 2023, December 2021 and September 2021 fractals, we consider this an excellent long-term buy opportunity. Our target is the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 1100.
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XPDUSD Sell signal below the 1D MA50.
Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading inside a Channel Down for almost a year. The price ic currently near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is intact since May 23.
The 1D RSI action shows that we are potentially in a similar spot as December 27 2022, when a deep Lower Low sequence started. As long as the price stays below the 1D MA50, we will stay bearish and target the middle of the Channel Down at 1050.
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Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading inside a Channel Down for almost a year. The price ic currently near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is intact since May 23.
The 1D RSI action shows that we are potentially in a similar spot as December 27 2022, when a deep Lower Low sequence started. As long as the price stays below the 1D MA50, we will stay bearish and target the middle of the Channel Down at 1050.
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BONEUSD Excellent buy signal
Bone ShibaSwap (BONEUSD) has completed a 6 day bullish streak following the rebound on the Symmetrical Pivot Zone. The RSI Lower Highs sequences, as well as the Higher Highs that preceded them after the rebound on the Support Zone, show that BONE is replicating the December 2022 - February 2023 bull run. As a result, this is an excellent buy opportunity to initially target the 1.9750 Symmetrical Resistance.
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Bone ShibaSwap (BONEUSD) has completed a 6 day bullish streak following the rebound on the Symmetrical Pivot Zone. The RSI Lower Highs sequences, as well as the Higher Highs that preceded them after the rebound on the Support Zone, show that BONE is replicating the December 2022 - February 2023 bull run. As a result, this is an excellent buy opportunity to initially target the 1.9750 Symmetrical Resistance.
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USDCHF Approaching the 1D MA50 for the optimal sell entry.
The USDCHF pair made a strong rejection near the top of the Channel Down pattern and hit our 0.88250 sell target as illustrated on our analysis 2 months ago (see chart below):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCHF/MncuTBmz-USDCHF-Bullish-above-the-1D-MA50-bearish-below-it/
The price is now rising again, after nearly the -0.5 Fibonacci extension for a Lower Low (same as the May 04 Lower Low). The most optimal sell entry is within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is located exactly at the top of the Channel Down. We will take that opportunity to sell and target 0.8300 (again near the -0.5 Fibonacci extension).
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The USDCHF pair made a strong rejection near the top of the Channel Down pattern and hit our 0.88250 sell target as illustrated on our analysis 2 months ago (see chart below):
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCHF/MncuTBmz-USDCHF-Bullish-above-the-1D-MA50-bearish-below-it/
The price is now rising again, after nearly the -0.5 Fibonacci extension for a Lower Low (same as the May 04 Lower Low). The most optimal sell entry is within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is located exactly at the top of the Channel Down. We will take that opportunity to sell and target 0.8300 (again near the -0.5 Fibonacci extension).
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BITCOIN volume is decreasing, yet price is rising. What to do?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been extending its recovery since late November, following the FTX crash but is doing so on a Decreasing Volume. In fact the volume is currently on historically low levels. Decreasing volume is associated with easy price manipulation and rightly so it is getting a lot of market participants worried as during rallies it tends to make the trend fragile.
** Decreasing volume in previous Cycles **
A simple look however, at past Bull Cycles is enough to provide a good understanding of the current situation. This chart (4D time-frame) shows that there was Decreasing Volume following all previous major market bottoms, especially in times of extreme capitulation such as the March 2020 COVID crash, or the August 2015 Bitfinex crash. With the FTX crash in early November 2022 being such a capitulation even, there should be no surprise that the volume has been decreasing ever since. BTC however has doubled since then, indicating that this whole period has been nothing but another Accumulation Phase for smart money near the bottom of the Bull Cycle. We can strongly claim that this is a standard post-bottom Cycle rally.
** The Vortex Gap **
Besides this correlation, you may also have a look at the Vortex Indicator. Every time the Decreasing Volume leads to a Low, the VI- (red) crosses below the VI+ (blue) and opens the gap. A VI- hitting 0.5000 has historically happened when BTC made a Higher High within the new Bull Cycle. Right now it is still only at 0.9100, potentially indicating that there is significant potential for a deep Higher High.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been extending its recovery since late November, following the FTX crash but is doing so on a Decreasing Volume. In fact the volume is currently on historically low levels. Decreasing volume is associated with easy price manipulation and rightly so it is getting a lot of market participants worried as during rallies it tends to make the trend fragile.
** Decreasing volume in previous Cycles **
A simple look however, at past Bull Cycles is enough to provide a good understanding of the current situation. This chart (4D time-frame) shows that there was Decreasing Volume following all previous major market bottoms, especially in times of extreme capitulation such as the March 2020 COVID crash, or the August 2015 Bitfinex crash. With the FTX crash in early November 2022 being such a capitulation even, there should be no surprise that the volume has been decreasing ever since. BTC however has doubled since then, indicating that this whole period has been nothing but another Accumulation Phase for smart money near the bottom of the Bull Cycle. We can strongly claim that this is a standard post-bottom Cycle rally.
** The Vortex Gap **
Besides this correlation, you may also have a look at the Vortex Indicator. Every time the Decreasing Volume leads to a Low, the VI- (red) crosses below the VI+ (blue) and opens the gap. A VI- hitting 0.5000 has historically happened when BTC made a Higher High within the new Bull Cycle. Right now it is still only at 0.9100, potentially indicating that there is significant potential for a deep Higher High.
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