πΉ Consolidation and Movement Boundaries
On higher timeframes, the main scenario is trading at the boundaries of consolidation. Medium-term setups are possible both for long and short positions. A breakout from the flat is necessary for a trending move, however, no significant changes occurred over the weekend. At the end of the week, an opportunity to move upwards appeared, but the buyer's attempt to secure the initiative was unsuccessful. ππ
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On higher timeframes, the main scenario is trading at the boundaries of consolidation. Medium-term setups are possible both for long and short positions. A breakout from the flat is necessary for a trending move, however, no significant changes occurred over the weekend. At the end of the week, an opportunity to move upwards appeared, but the buyer's attempt to secure the initiative was unsuccessful. ππ
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πΉ Assessment of Movements and Scenarios
Analysis of higher timeframes shows the formation of an intermediate volume within the range followed by a downward breakout π. Technically, such scenarios can play out, but in a sideways market, volumes often do not fulfill their supportive role. The downward breakout might be just a local shakeout of buyers and a reason for a new retest of support around 105.102 π. This scenario remains relevant, but without momentum confirmation, the market stays in consolidation.
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Analysis of higher timeframes shows the formation of an intermediate volume within the range followed by a downward breakout π. Technically, such scenarios can play out, but in a sideways market, volumes often do not fulfill their supportive role. The downward breakout might be just a local shakeout of buyers and a reason for a new retest of support around 105.102 π. This scenario remains relevant, but without momentum confirmation, the market stays in consolidation.
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πΉ Flat Market: Prospects and Risks
Within a flat market, there are many possible scenarios: a drop below 106,000 to trigger stop losses, a rebound to 110,000, or even a move up to 115,000 if there are no sellers. There are too many possible developments, making it impossible to play out all scenarios simultaneously. This distinguishes a flat from a trend, where there are clear key levels and understandable reactions to them. In a trend, volume supports the direction, and breaking it signals a phase change β in a flat market, possibilities are almost unlimited. ππ
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Within a flat market, there are many possible scenarios: a drop below 106,000 to trigger stop losses, a rebound to 110,000, or even a move up to 115,000 if there are no sellers. There are too many possible developments, making it impossible to play out all scenarios simultaneously. This distinguishes a flat from a trend, where there are clear key levels and understandable reactions to them. In a trend, volume supports the direction, and breaking it signals a phase change β in a flat market, possibilities are almost unlimited. ππ
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πΉ Formation of the Seller Zone
After breaking through the volume zone of 110,000β109,600, an active seller emerged, maintaining the impulse around 110,000. Then the seller defended the level of 107,800β107,400, and the buyer was unable to hold above this zone. A rebound occurred, forming a new volume range between 107,000β106,500, which is also controlled by the seller. After the next impulse, the price fell below this volume and is currently trading beneath it. π
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After breaking through the volume zone of 110,000β109,600, an active seller emerged, maintaining the impulse around 110,000. Then the seller defended the level of 107,800β107,400, and the buyer was unable to hold above this zone. A rebound occurred, forming a new volume range between 107,000β106,500, which is also controlled by the seller. After the next impulse, the price fell below this volume and is currently trading beneath it. π
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πΉ Key Support and Resistance Levels
Currently, a significant local volume is concentrated around 104,600β104,300. If the price breaks through this zone and settles above it, there is potential for a rebound to the 105,200β106,500 area or even 107,000, where the last active seller is located. From this zone, another downward rebound may occur. π
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Currently, a significant local volume is concentrated around 104,600β104,300. If the price breaks through this zone and settles above it, there is potential for a rebound to the 105,200β106,500 area or even 107,000, where the last active seller is located. From this zone, another downward rebound may occur. π
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πΉ Dynamics on Higher Timeframes
On the daily chart (D1), the price is attempting to break through a deep correction. The key resistance zone for sellers is between 111,000 and 115,000, with an outpost at 119,200 β above which the price should not rise if the sellers are strong. In case the deep correction continues, the first target is around 84,000β82,000, where the last buy signal occurred. It is important to watch the price reaction in this zoneβwhether buyers will take the opportunity to add positions for growth π. Currently, the priority remains on short positions with prospects of further volume consolidation below and potential for deeper decline π.
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On the daily chart (D1), the price is attempting to break through a deep correction. The key resistance zone for sellers is between 111,000 and 115,000, with an outpost at 119,200 β above which the price should not rise if the sellers are strong. In case the deep correction continues, the first target is around 84,000β82,000, where the last buy signal occurred. It is important to watch the price reaction in this zoneβwhether buyers will take the opportunity to add positions for growth π. Currently, the priority remains on short positions with prospects of further volume consolidation below and potential for deeper decline π.
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πΉAnalyzing the situation on the H4 timeframe:
Over the past few days, the market has been in a wide range-bound movement with a lower boundary around 102,000 and an upper boundary between 114,000β116,000. Recently, trading has been occurring near the lower boundary; last night sellers attempted to break the support and exit the consolidation downwards. However, the attempt has not been firmly established yet β main activity remains around the 101,750 level. Candlesticks show wicks, indicating buying pressure from below, volume is present, but there is no clear stoppage or decisive impulse observed. ππ
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Over the past few days, the market has been in a wide range-bound movement with a lower boundary around 102,000 and an upper boundary between 114,000β116,000. Recently, trading has been occurring near the lower boundary; last night sellers attempted to break the support and exit the consolidation downwards. However, the attempt has not been firmly established yet β main activity remains around the 101,750 level. Candlesticks show wicks, indicating buying pressure from below, volume is present, but there is no clear stoppage or decisive impulse observed. ππ
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πΉ Market participants' reaction to volumes
After significant sell-offs and liquidations by sellers at local lows, there was notable buyer aggression (sell block at 99,400β100,000). Up to 2000 BTC in market buys occurred β this might indicate accumulation of positions by buyers. The price remains above this cluster. We also monitor the 101,900β101,500 range β sellers are testing with market orders here, creating additional selling pressure π.
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After significant sell-offs and liquidations by sellers at local lows, there was notable buyer aggression (sell block at 99,400β100,000). Up to 2000 BTC in market buys occurred β this might indicate accumulation of positions by buyers. The price remains above this cluster. We also monitor the 101,900β101,500 range β sellers are testing with market orders here, creating additional selling pressure π.
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πΉ Current balance of power and main scenarios The market currently shows an imbalance towards market sells β this creates a risk of further decline π. However, the buyer still holds the level, and with support from limit orders, an impulsive move up to 104,000 is possible π. If the buyer fails to hold, the seller will quickly intensify pressure π₯. Key buyer groups: 102,000, 101,500, 101,200, and 99,399β300. A breakout below 99,000 will trigger mass position exits, accelerating the decline β οΈ. We closely watch volume and the red delta: the seller is aggressive here, but it is currently being decided whether the buyer has enough strength to hold the market π§.
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πΉ Intraday Situation
After the peak decline, volumes started to increase, especially after lunch and this morning. A zone of 101,600β101,500 has formed β a strong daily mid-level that the buyer is trying to control. If this zone is held, an upward correction is expected with the first target at 104,000. If the price breaks below 100,500 and falls under 100,000, a new wave of impulsive decline is possible, as significant volumes are concentrated here.
πΉ Critical Zones for Buyers and Sellers
The development of events depends on 101,500: if the buyer manages to hold this level, a move up to 104,000 is possible; if it fails, the decline will intensify. In the middle of the current range, large selling volumes are concentrated (100,500 and 100,000), where the sellerβs climaxes were recorded twice β the price fell essentially to large volume clusters to trigger stops and absorb buyerβs limit orders. ππ
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After the peak decline, volumes started to increase, especially after lunch and this morning. A zone of 101,600β101,500 has formed β a strong daily mid-level that the buyer is trying to control. If this zone is held, an upward correction is expected with the first target at 104,000. If the price breaks below 100,500 and falls under 100,000, a new wave of impulsive decline is possible, as significant volumes are concentrated here.
πΉ Critical Zones for Buyers and Sellers
The development of events depends on 101,500: if the buyer manages to hold this level, a move up to 104,000 is possible; if it fails, the decline will intensify. In the middle of the current range, large selling volumes are concentrated (100,500 and 100,000), where the sellerβs climaxes were recorded twice β the price fell essentially to large volume clusters to trigger stops and absorb buyerβs limit orders. ππ
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We are gradually moving further into a correction π. Targets are 103.8k, 103.9k, and 104.5k. There might be a cunning seller lurking there π΅οΈββοΈ.
Levels where there was a fight and the buyer won the battle β 101.6k, 101k, and 100.5k π.
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Levels where there was a fight and the buyer won the battle β 101.6k, 101k, and 100.5k π.
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We are currently testing the buyer zone around 101-102k π. Watching to see if it will be defended. If it will, we might see some initial volume π.
If the buyer fails to hold this zone, the seller will have every chance to continue the decline at least to 99k π, and then attempt to break the lower low below β¬οΈ.
Let's watch, it will soon be clear who plays whom π€.
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If the buyer fails to hold this zone, the seller will have every chance to continue the decline at least to 99k π, and then attempt to break the lower low below β¬οΈ.
Let's watch, it will soon be clear who plays whom π€.
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π There is also a local interesting zone around 102.4k-102.8k. It is evident that several times there was a battle for these levels. Some consider them significant, and who are we to ignore this information? π€
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