> GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS AS US 10-YEAR YIELDS RISE ABOVE 5% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2007
JAPAN, UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE ALSO SEEING YIELDS AT MULTI-DECADE HIGHS
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JAPAN, UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE ALSO SEEING YIELDS AT MULTI-DECADE HIGHS
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> KREMLIN BACKS RUSSIA-UKRAINE ENERGY TRUCE
THE KREMLIN WELCOMED TRUMP’S PROPOSAL FOR RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TO STOP ATTACKING EACH OTHER’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
TRUMP SAID BOTH SIDES HAD AGREED TO THE MORATORIUM.
MOSCOW ALSO CALLED FOR SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLIES TO BE LIFTED, ADDING ANOTHER DIMENSION TO POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS.
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THE KREMLIN WELCOMED TRUMP’S PROPOSAL FOR RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TO STOP ATTACKING EACH OTHER’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
TRUMP SAID BOTH SIDES HAD AGREED TO THE MORATORIUM.
MOSCOW ALSO CALLED FOR SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLIES TO BE LIFTED, ADDING ANOTHER DIMENSION TO POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS.
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> 🇺🇸 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MARKETS
8:15 AM ET — 🇺🇸 ADP WEEKLY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING
11:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 6-WEEK TREASURY AUCTION
1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION
4:30 PM ET — 🛢️ API OIL INVENTORIES
ALL DAY — 🏦 FOMC MEETING — DAY 1
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🔥 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION — KEY EVENT
THE $13B 20-YEAR REOPENING IS TODAY’S BIGGEST FIXED-TIME TEST.
WITH LONG-TERM YIELDS ELEVATED, DEMAND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS MARKETS.
WEAK DEMAND → YIELDS ↑ → STOCKS PRESSURED
STRONG DEMAND → YIELDS ↓ → STOCKS SUPPORTED
🇺🇸 EMPIRE STATE
SEPTEMBER MANUFACTURING DATA PROVIDE AN EARLY LOOK AT U.S. FACTORY ACTIVITY.
A MAJOR SURPRISE COULD MOVE YIELDS AND THE DOLLAR, ALTHOUGH ATTENTION IS INCREASINGLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE FED.
🏦 FED — DAY 1
THE FOMC BEGINS ITS TWO‑DAY MEETING TODAY.
NO MAJOR FED SPEAKERS ARE SCHEDULED. THE RATE DECISION, DOT PLOT AND POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE COME WEDNESDAY.
WATCH THE 2Y YIELD, 10Y YIELD, DOLLAR AND FED‑RATE PRICING.
🛢️ OIL
API INVENTORIES ARRIVE AFTER THE CLOSE, AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY’S OFFICIAL EIA REPORT.
WITH CRUDE PRICES ELEVATED, ANOTHER LARGE INVENTORY DRAW COULD REINFORCE INFLATION CONCERNS.
🌍 GLOBAL
UK LABOR‑MARKET DATA AND GERMANY’S ZEW SURVEY ARE THE MAIN INTERNATIONAL RELEASES AHEAD OF THE U.S. SESSION.
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8:15 AM ET — 🇺🇸 ADP WEEKLY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATE
8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING
11:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 6-WEEK TREASURY AUCTION
1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION
4:30 PM ET — 🛢️ API OIL INVENTORIES
ALL DAY — 🏦 FOMC MEETING — DAY 1
————————————
🔥 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION — KEY EVENT
THE $13B 20-YEAR REOPENING IS TODAY’S BIGGEST FIXED-TIME TEST.
WITH LONG-TERM YIELDS ELEVATED, DEMAND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS MARKETS.
WEAK DEMAND → YIELDS ↑ → STOCKS PRESSURED
STRONG DEMAND → YIELDS ↓ → STOCKS SUPPORTED
🇺🇸 EMPIRE STATE
SEPTEMBER MANUFACTURING DATA PROVIDE AN EARLY LOOK AT U.S. FACTORY ACTIVITY.
A MAJOR SURPRISE COULD MOVE YIELDS AND THE DOLLAR, ALTHOUGH ATTENTION IS INCREASINGLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE FED.
🏦 FED — DAY 1
THE FOMC BEGINS ITS TWO‑DAY MEETING TODAY.
NO MAJOR FED SPEAKERS ARE SCHEDULED. THE RATE DECISION, DOT PLOT AND POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE COME WEDNESDAY.
WATCH THE 2Y YIELD, 10Y YIELD, DOLLAR AND FED‑RATE PRICING.
🛢️ OIL
API INVENTORIES ARRIVE AFTER THE CLOSE, AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY’S OFFICIAL EIA REPORT.
WITH CRUDE PRICES ELEVATED, ANOTHER LARGE INVENTORY DRAW COULD REINFORCE INFLATION CONCERNS.
🌍 GLOBAL
UK LABOR‑MARKET DATA AND GERMANY’S ZEW SURVEY ARE THE MAIN INTERNATIONAL RELEASES AHEAD OF THE U.S. SESSION.
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> OIL RALLY BUILDS AS SUPPLY RISKS MOUNT
WTI CLIMBED 1% TO $102.40, HOLDING NEAR RECENT HIGHS AS MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY CONCERNS PERSIST.
SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS DECLINED, WHILE SAUDI PIPELINE DISRUPTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE RUSSIA‑UKRAINE ENERGY TRUCE SUPPORT PRICES.
CRACK SPREADS REMAIN STRONG, AND WTI’S TECHNICAL TREND IS BULLISH.
MARKET ANGLE: A BREAK HIGHER COULD PUT $106.98 IN FOCUS.
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WTI CLIMBED 1% TO $102.40, HOLDING NEAR RECENT HIGHS AS MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY CONCERNS PERSIST.
SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS DECLINED, WHILE SAUDI PIPELINE DISRUPTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE RUSSIA‑UKRAINE ENERGY TRUCE SUPPORT PRICES.
CRACK SPREADS REMAIN STRONG, AND WTI’S TECHNICAL TREND IS BULLISH.
MARKET ANGLE: A BREAK HIGHER COULD PUT $106.98 IN FOCUS.
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> TRUMP WILL RESPECT FED DECISION
NEC DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT SAYS PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL RESPECT WHATEVER DECISION THE FEDERAL RESERVE MAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
MARKETS WIDELY EXPECT THE FED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, WITH ANOTHER HIKE POTENTIALLY COMING LATER THIS YEAR.
THE COMMENTS COME AHEAD OF A CLOSELY WATCHED DECISION FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH.
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NEC DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT SAYS PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL RESPECT WHATEVER DECISION THE FEDERAL RESERVE MAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
MARKETS WIDELY EXPECT THE FED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES, WITH ANOTHER HIKE POTENTIALLY COMING LATER THIS YEAR.
THE COMMENTS COME AHEAD OF A CLOSELY WATCHED DECISION FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH.
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> OMAN, U.S. DISCUSS REGIONAL DE-ESCALATION
OMAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER HELD A PHONE CALL WITH HIS U.S. COUNTERPART TO DISCUSS RAPIDLY EVOLVING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND EFFORTS TO REDUCE TENSIONS AND CONTAIN THE FALLOUT.
THE TWO ALSO DISCUSSED CREATING CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DIPLOMACY AND RESOLVING OUTSTANDING ISSUES, WHILE REAFFIRMING CLOSER U.S.-OMAN COORDINATION ON REGIONAL SECURITY AND STABILITY.
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OMAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER HELD A PHONE CALL WITH HIS U.S. COUNTERPART TO DISCUSS RAPIDLY EVOLVING REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND EFFORTS TO REDUCE TENSIONS AND CONTAIN THE FALLOUT.
THE TWO ALSO DISCUSSED CREATING CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED DIPLOMACY AND RESOLVING OUTSTANDING ISSUES, WHILE REAFFIRMING CLOSER U.S.-OMAN COORDINATION ON REGIONAL SECURITY AND STABILITY.
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> NOBEL LAUREATE WARNS AI COULD ERODE HUMAN AGENCY
NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LAUREATE MARIA RESSA IS CALLING FOR URGENT AI REGULATION, WARNING THAT INCREASINGLY AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS COULD UNDERMINE HUMAN AGENCY.
RESSA SAYS CITIZENS MUST PRESSURE GOVERNMENTS TO ACT AND ARGUES REGULATION IS A PUBLIC SAFETY ISSUE, NOT A FREE-SPEECH ISSUE.
SHE ALSO REJECTED CLAIMS THAT TOUGHER WESTERN RULES WOULD HAND CHINA AN ADVANTAGE.
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NOBEL PEACE PRIZE LAUREATE MARIA RESSA IS CALLING FOR URGENT AI REGULATION, WARNING THAT INCREASINGLY AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS COULD UNDERMINE HUMAN AGENCY.
RESSA SAYS CITIZENS MUST PRESSURE GOVERNMENTS TO ACT AND ARGUES REGULATION IS A PUBLIC SAFETY ISSUE, NOT A FREE-SPEECH ISSUE.
SHE ALSO REJECTED CLAIMS THAT TOUGHER WESTERN RULES WOULD HAND CHINA AN ADVANTAGE.
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> BITCOIN MINERS PAY TO EXIT AS AVERAGE MINING COST HITS $75.5K PER BTC
COINSHARES SAID LISTED BITCOIN MINERS FELL BELOW CASH BREAKEVEN IN AGGREGATE IN Q2 2026, WITH THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRE-TAX CASH COST TO PRODUCE ONE BTC REACHING ABOUT $75,500, VERSUS BITCOIN’S QUARTER-END PRICE OF $58,400. MONTHLY AVERAGE HASH PRICE ALSO FELL TO A RECORD LOW OF $27.7/PH/S/DAY IN JUNE. THE PRESSURE IS PUSHING MINERS TO SCALE BACK OR EXIT, WITH CORE SCIENTIFIC PAYING $41.9 MILLION TO CANCEL ROUGHLY 15 EH/S OF NEXT-GENERATION MINING HARDWARE, WHILE SEVERAL LISTED MINERS HAVE ALREADY SHUT DOWN OR ARE WINDING DOWN OPERATIONS. — LINK
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COINSHARES SAID LISTED BITCOIN MINERS FELL BELOW CASH BREAKEVEN IN AGGREGATE IN Q2 2026, WITH THE WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRE-TAX CASH COST TO PRODUCE ONE BTC REACHING ABOUT $75,500, VERSUS BITCOIN’S QUARTER-END PRICE OF $58,400. MONTHLY AVERAGE HASH PRICE ALSO FELL TO A RECORD LOW OF $27.7/PH/S/DAY IN JUNE. THE PRESSURE IS PUSHING MINERS TO SCALE BACK OR EXIT, WITH CORE SCIENTIFIC PAYING $41.9 MILLION TO CANCEL ROUGHLY 15 EH/S OF NEXT-GENERATION MINING HARDWARE, WHILE SEVERAL LISTED MINERS HAVE ALREADY SHUT DOWN OR ARE WINDING DOWN OPERATIONS. — LINK
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> FED BANK MONITORING SYSTEM HIT BY OUTAGE
THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S NATIONAL INFORMATION CENTER SUFFERED AN OUTAGE ON AUGUST 5, ACCORDING TO THE WSJ.
THE WHITE HOUSE SAID ONLY THE PUBLIC WEBSITE WAS AFFECTED, BUT SOURCES SAID INTERNAL SYSTEMS AND THE FED’S PRIMARY BANK‑LENDING CHANNEL WERE ALSO DISRUPTED.
AN INTERNAL EMAIL CITED SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ACROSS MULTIPLE FED OPERATIONS.
THE CAUSE REMAINS UNCLEAR.
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S NATIONAL INFORMATION CENTER SUFFERED AN OUTAGE ON AUGUST 5, ACCORDING TO THE WSJ.
THE WHITE HOUSE SAID ONLY THE PUBLIC WEBSITE WAS AFFECTED, BUT SOURCES SAID INTERNAL SYSTEMS AND THE FED’S PRIMARY BANK‑LENDING CHANNEL WERE ALSO DISRUPTED.
AN INTERNAL EMAIL CITED SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ACROSS MULTIPLE FED OPERATIONS.
THE CAUSE REMAINS UNCLEAR.
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> JUST IN: 🇺🇸 WHITE HOUSE SAYS PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL RESPECT WHATEVER DECISION FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH MAKES TOMORROW.
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> TRUMP BLASTS SUPREME COURT OVER MAJOR RULINGS
PRESIDENT TRUMP SHARPLY CRITICIZED THE U.S. SUPREME COURT, ACCUSING IT OF REPEATEDLY DELIVERING DECISIONS HARMFUL TO REPUBLICANS AND THE COUNTRY.
TRUMP ATTACKED RULINGS INVOLVING MAIL-IN VOTING, TARIFFS AND BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP, WHILE PRAISING JUSTICES ALITO AND THOMAS FOR DISSENTING IN THE LATEST CASE.
HE CLAIMED THE COURT’S DECISIONS COULD COST THE U.S. TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND CAUSE LASTING DAMAGE.
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PRESIDENT TRUMP SHARPLY CRITICIZED THE U.S. SUPREME COURT, ACCUSING IT OF REPEATEDLY DELIVERING DECISIONS HARMFUL TO REPUBLICANS AND THE COUNTRY.
TRUMP ATTACKED RULINGS INVOLVING MAIL-IN VOTING, TARIFFS AND BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP, WHILE PRAISING JUSTICES ALITO AND THOMAS FOR DISSENTING IN THE LATEST CASE.
HE CLAIMED THE COURT’S DECISIONS COULD COST THE U.S. TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND CAUSE LASTING DAMAGE.
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> DEMOCRATS CLARITY ACT COUNTER-OFFER REJECTED BY REPUBLICANS: PUNCHBOWL
SEN LUMMIS SPOKESPERSON SAID DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT BUDGED AN INCH
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SEN LUMMIS SPOKESPERSON SAID DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT BUDGED AN INCH
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> REPUBLICANS REJECTED DEMOCRATS’ CLARITY ACT COUNTEROFFER AHEAD OF TODAY’S 17:15 UTC VOTE
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> U.S. GASOLINE AND DIESEL PRICES SURGE
U.S. FUEL PRICES JUMPED SHARPLY, ADDING FRESH PRESSURE ON CONSUMERS AND INFLATION.
REGULAR GASOLINE ROSE 16.2 CENTS WEEKLY TO $4.319/GALLON, NOW $1.151 HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO.
DIESEL SURGED 31.8 CENTS TO $6.285/GALLON, UP $2.546 YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
MARKET ANGLE: RAPIDLY RISING FUEL COSTS COULD REINFORCE INFLATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF FED POLICY DECISIONS.
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U.S. FUEL PRICES JUMPED SHARPLY, ADDING FRESH PRESSURE ON CONSUMERS AND INFLATION.
REGULAR GASOLINE ROSE 16.2 CENTS WEEKLY TO $4.319/GALLON, NOW $1.151 HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO.
DIESEL SURGED 31.8 CENTS TO $6.285/GALLON, UP $2.546 YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
MARKET ANGLE: RAPIDLY RISING FUEL COSTS COULD REINFORCE INFLATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF FED POLICY DECISIONS.
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> JUST IN: 🇺🇸 REPUBLICANS REJECT DEMOCRATS' CRYPTO CLARITY ACT COUNTER-OFFER AS NEGOTIATIONS REMAIN DEADLOCKED.
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> *LIBYA NOC: OUTPUT HALTED AT HAMADA, AL-TAHARA FIELDS
*LIBYA FIELDS SHUTDOWN DUE TO PIPELINE CLOSURE: NOC
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*LIBYA FIELDS SHUTDOWN DUE TO PIPELINE CLOSURE: NOC
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> OIL JUMPS AS SAUDI CANCELS EUROPEAN CARGOES
OIL PRICES SURGED AFTER SAUDI ARABIA REPORTEDLY CANCELLED SEPTEMBER CRUDE CARGOES TO SOME EUROPEAN REFINERS FOLLOWING DAMAGE TO ITS EAST‑WEST PIPELINE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPLY PRESSURE COMES FROM LIBYAN OIL‑FIELD OUTAGES AND MAINTENANCE IN KAZAKHSTAN.
BRENT JUMPED 1.6% TO $107.39, WHILE WTI SURGED 2.1% TO $103.51.
MARKET ANGLE: TIGHTENING PHYSICAL SUPPLY IS OVERPOWERING DIPLOMATIC OPTIMISM.
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OIL PRICES SURGED AFTER SAUDI ARABIA REPORTEDLY CANCELLED SEPTEMBER CRUDE CARGOES TO SOME EUROPEAN REFINERS FOLLOWING DAMAGE TO ITS EAST‑WEST PIPELINE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPLY PRESSURE COMES FROM LIBYAN OIL‑FIELD OUTAGES AND MAINTENANCE IN KAZAKHSTAN.
BRENT JUMPED 1.6% TO $107.39, WHILE WTI SURGED 2.1% TO $103.51.
MARKET ANGLE: TIGHTENING PHYSICAL SUPPLY IS OVERPOWERING DIPLOMATIC OPTIMISM.
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> BESSENT, ASKED ABOUT RISING BOND YIELDS ON TUESDAY, SAID THIS IS DUE TO “GLOBAL ISSUES”
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> BRENT, US CRUDE FUTURES RISE AFTER LIBYA'S NOC SAYS IT MAY DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE AFTER PROTESTS SUSPEND PRODUCTION AT OIL FIELDS, BRENT LAST UP 1.7%, WTI UP 2.1%
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