> $GOOGL - GOOGLE SEARCH & CLOUD STRENGTH OFFSET PT CUT
WELLS FARGO LOWERED ALPHABET'S PRICE TARGET TO $416 FROM $435 BUT KEPT ITS OVERWEIGHT RATING.
THE FIRM EXPECTS STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED SEARCH AND CLOUD GROWTH, DRIVEN BY RISING USER ENGAGEMENT, AI DEMAND, AND EXPANDING COMPUTE CAPACITY. WHILE HIGHER AI INVESTMENT TRIMS LONGER-TERM FORECASTS, WELLS FARGO BELIEVES GOOGLE'S AI AND CLOUD LEADERSHIP SUPPORTS CONTINUED EARNINGS GROWTH.
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WELLS FARGO LOWERED ALPHABET'S PRICE TARGET TO $416 FROM $435 BUT KEPT ITS OVERWEIGHT RATING.
THE FIRM EXPECTS STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED SEARCH AND CLOUD GROWTH, DRIVEN BY RISING USER ENGAGEMENT, AI DEMAND, AND EXPANDING COMPUTE CAPACITY. WHILE HIGHER AI INVESTMENT TRIMS LONGER-TERM FORECASTS, WELLS FARGO BELIEVES GOOGLE'S AI AND CLOUD LEADERSHIP SUPPORTS CONTINUED EARNINGS GROWTH.
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> $AMZN - AWS MOMENTUM DRIVES AMAZON PT HIKE
WELLS FARGO RAISED AMAZON'S PRICE TARGET TO $313 FROM $312 WHILE MAINTAINING ITS OVERWEIGHT RATING.
THE FIRM EXPECTS AWS GROWTH TO ACCELERATE ON STRONG AI DEMAND, EXPANDING COMPUTE CAPACITY, AND IMPROVING PRICING POWER. WHILE PRIME DAY TIMING MAY WEIGH ON NEAR‑TERM REVENUE, WELLS FARGO BELIEVES AMAZON'S CLOUD LEADERSHIP AND AI INVESTMENTS SUPPORT STRONGER EARNINGS AND LONG‑TERM UPSIDE.
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WELLS FARGO RAISED AMAZON'S PRICE TARGET TO $313 FROM $312 WHILE MAINTAINING ITS OVERWEIGHT RATING.
THE FIRM EXPECTS AWS GROWTH TO ACCELERATE ON STRONG AI DEMAND, EXPANDING COMPUTE CAPACITY, AND IMPROVING PRICING POWER. WHILE PRIME DAY TIMING MAY WEIGH ON NEAR‑TERM REVENUE, WELLS FARGO BELIEVES AMAZON'S CLOUD LEADERSHIP AND AI INVESTMENTS SUPPORT STRONGER EARNINGS AND LONG‑TERM UPSIDE.
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> JUNE JOBS REPORT IN FOCUS
MARKETS EXPECT THE U.S. TO HAVE ADDED 114,000 JOBS IN JUNE, DOWN FROM 172,000 IN MAY, WITH UNEMPLOYMENT SEEN AT 4.3%.
A RESILIENT LABOR MARKET COULD KEEP THE FED CAUTIOUS ON RATE CUTS, WHILE A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT MAY BOOST EASING HOPES. ECONOMISTS EXPECT LIMITED MARKET REACTION UNLESS PAYROLLS OR WAGE GROWTH SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED FORECASTS.
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MARKETS EXPECT THE U.S. TO HAVE ADDED 114,000 JOBS IN JUNE, DOWN FROM 172,000 IN MAY, WITH UNEMPLOYMENT SEEN AT 4.3%.
A RESILIENT LABOR MARKET COULD KEEP THE FED CAUTIOUS ON RATE CUTS, WHILE A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT MAY BOOST EASING HOPES. ECONOMISTS EXPECT LIMITED MARKET REACTION UNLESS PAYROLLS OR WAGE GROWTH SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED FORECASTS.
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> STANDARD CHARTERED PARTNERS WITH CIRCLE: FIRST G-SIB BANK LAUNCHES USDC MINTING AND REDEMPTION
STANDARD CHARTERED HAS ANNOUNCED A PARTNERSHIP WITH CIRCLE TO ENABLE INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS TO ACCESS USDC MINTING AND REDEMPTION. THE LAUNCH MAKES STANDARD CHARTERED THE FIRST GLOBAL SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANK (G-SIB) LICENSED TO OFFER INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ACCESS TO USDC MINTING AND REDEMPTION THROUGH A SINGLE ONBOARDING AND SERVICE EXPERIENCE, WITHOUT REQUIRING CLIENTS TO HOLD DIRECT ACCOUNTS WITH CIRCLE.
THE SERVICE IS INITIALLY AVAILABLE TO ELIGIBLE CLIENTS THROUGH STANDARD CHARTERED’S DIFC OPERATIONS, AIMING TO CONNECT FIAT BANKING, DIGITAL ASSET INFRASTRUCTURE, AND PUBLIC BLOCKCHAIN NETWORKS TO SUPPORT INSTITUTIONAL USE CASES SUCH AS ON-CHAIN SETTLEMENT, TREASURY, AND LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT — LINK
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STANDARD CHARTERED HAS ANNOUNCED A PARTNERSHIP WITH CIRCLE TO ENABLE INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS TO ACCESS USDC MINTING AND REDEMPTION. THE LAUNCH MAKES STANDARD CHARTERED THE FIRST GLOBAL SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANK (G-SIB) LICENSED TO OFFER INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ACCESS TO USDC MINTING AND REDEMPTION THROUGH A SINGLE ONBOARDING AND SERVICE EXPERIENCE, WITHOUT REQUIRING CLIENTS TO HOLD DIRECT ACCOUNTS WITH CIRCLE.
THE SERVICE IS INITIALLY AVAILABLE TO ELIGIBLE CLIENTS THROUGH STANDARD CHARTERED’S DIFC OPERATIONS, AIMING TO CONNECT FIAT BANKING, DIGITAL ASSET INFRASTRUCTURE, AND PUBLIC BLOCKCHAIN NETWORKS TO SUPPORT INSTITUTIONAL USE CASES SUCH AS ON-CHAIN SETTLEMENT, TREASURY, AND LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT — LINK
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> HYPERSCALE DATA BUYS 67 BITCOIN BRINGING BITCOIN TREASURY TO APPROXIMATELY 849 BITCOIN
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> GOLDMAN: INVESTORS TRIM BIG TECH EXPOSURE
GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS INVESTORS ARE REDUCING EXPOSURE TO THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AS THEY FAVOR AI BENEFICIARIES, SUCH AS SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES, OVER HYPERSCALERS FUNDING HEAVY AI SPENDING.
THE BANK BELIEVES MARKETS ARE REWARDING COMPANIES GENERATING RETURNS FROM AI INVESTMENTS WHILE QUESTIONING THOSE BEARING THE COSTS. UNTIL HYPERSCALERS SHOW STRONGER EARNINGS GROWTH, CAUTION TOWARD MEGA-CAP TECH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
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GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS INVESTORS ARE REDUCING EXPOSURE TO THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AS THEY FAVOR AI BENEFICIARIES, SUCH AS SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES, OVER HYPERSCALERS FUNDING HEAVY AI SPENDING.
THE BANK BELIEVES MARKETS ARE REWARDING COMPANIES GENERATING RETURNS FROM AI INVESTMENTS WHILE QUESTIONING THOSE BEARING THE COSTS. UNTIL HYPERSCALERS SHOW STRONGER EARNINGS GROWTH, CAUTION TOWARD MEGA-CAP TECH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
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> JPM: AI CHIP RALLY MAY BE HARD TO SUSTAIN
JPMORGAN SAYS AI CHIP STOCKS MAY STRUGGLE TO KEEP OUTPERFORMING HYPERSCALERS OVER THE LONG TERM.
THE BANK EXPECTS EITHER STRONGER AI MONETIZATION WILL HELP CLOUD PROVIDERS CATCH UP, OR HEAVY AI SPENDING COULD EVENTUALLY CURB HYPERSCALER CAPEX AND WEAKEN CHIP DEMAND. WHILE JPM FAVORS THE POSITIVE SCENARIO, SLOWING CAPEX FORECASTS REMAIN A KEY RISK FOR SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS.
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JPMORGAN SAYS AI CHIP STOCKS MAY STRUGGLE TO KEEP OUTPERFORMING HYPERSCALERS OVER THE LONG TERM.
THE BANK EXPECTS EITHER STRONGER AI MONETIZATION WILL HELP CLOUD PROVIDERS CATCH UP, OR HEAVY AI SPENDING COULD EVENTUALLY CURB HYPERSCALER CAPEX AND WEAKEN CHIP DEMAND. WHILE JPM FAVORS THE POSITIVE SCENARIO, SLOWING CAPEX FORECASTS REMAIN A KEY RISK FOR SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS.
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> SAUDI OIL EXPORTS SURGE AFTER HORMUZ REOPENS
SAUDI ARABIA IS SHIPPING ITS MOST CRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ SINCE THE U.S.-IRAN TRUCE REOPENED THE WATERWAY.
FOUR BAHRI SUPERTANKERS CARRYING ABOUT 8 MILLION BARRELS HAVE EXITED THE GULF, SIGNALING HIGHER EXPORTS. THE INCREASE FOLLOWS SAUDI ARAMCO'S RECENT SPOT SALES TO ASIA AND REFLECTS IMPROVING REGIONAL SHIPPING FLOWS AS OPEC'S TOP PRODUCER RAMPS UP EXPORTS.
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SAUDI ARABIA IS SHIPPING ITS MOST CRUDE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ SINCE THE U.S.-IRAN TRUCE REOPENED THE WATERWAY.
FOUR BAHRI SUPERTANKERS CARRYING ABOUT 8 MILLION BARRELS HAVE EXITED THE GULF, SIGNALING HIGHER EXPORTS. THE INCREASE FOLLOWS SAUDI ARAMCO'S RECENT SPOT SALES TO ASIA AND REFLECTS IMPROVING REGIONAL SHIPPING FLOWS AS OPEC'S TOP PRODUCER RAMPS UP EXPORTS.
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> HORMUZ SHIPPING STABILIZES, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS RECOVERED TO AN AVERAGE OF 40 VESSEL CROSSINGS PER DAY, ACCORDING TO KPLER.
SHIPPING REBOUNDED AFTER RECENT ATTACKS DISRUPTED TRANSIT, BUT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS OVER WHO CONTROLS PASSAGE. IRAN CLAIMS AUTHORITY OVER THE STRAIT, WHILE THE U.S. SAYS NO COUNTRY HAS THE RIGHT TO RESTRICT NAVIGATION.
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TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS RECOVERED TO AN AVERAGE OF 40 VESSEL CROSSINGS PER DAY, ACCORDING TO KPLER.
SHIPPING REBOUNDED AFTER RECENT ATTACKS DISRUPTED TRANSIT, BUT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS OVER WHO CONTROLS PASSAGE. IRAN CLAIMS AUTHORITY OVER THE STRAIT, WHILE THE U.S. SAYS NO COUNTRY HAS THE RIGHT TO RESTRICT NAVIGATION.
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> ROBINHOOD CEO: AI AGENTS TO RIVAL HUMAN TRADERS
ROBINHOOD CEO VLAD TENEV SAID AI AGENTS WILL SOON MATCH THE CAPABILITIES OF HUMAN TRADERS AS THE COMPANY EXPANDS ITS AI‑POWERED INVESTING TOOLS.
TENEV SAID THE GOAL IS TO GIVE RETAIL INVESTORS INSTITUTIONAL‑GRADE TRADING CAPABILITIES. ROBINHOOD RECENTLY LAUNCHED AI TRADING TOOLS AND CONTINUES EXPANDING ITS CRYPTO BUSINESS ACROSS EUROPE.
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ROBINHOOD CEO VLAD TENEV SAID AI AGENTS WILL SOON MATCH THE CAPABILITIES OF HUMAN TRADERS AS THE COMPANY EXPANDS ITS AI‑POWERED INVESTING TOOLS.
TENEV SAID THE GOAL IS TO GIVE RETAIL INVESTORS INSTITUTIONAL‑GRADE TRADING CAPABILITIES. ROBINHOOD RECENTLY LAUNCHED AI TRADING TOOLS AND CONTINUES EXPANDING ITS CRYPTO BUSINESS ACROSS EUROPE.
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> BLACKROCK DEPOSITS ANOTHER 4,917 $BTC WORTH $301M TO COINBASE, BRINGING TOTAL DEPOSITS THIS WEEK TO 20,359 $BTC WORTH $1.23B
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> JUNE JOBS GROWTH SEEN SLOWING
ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE U.S. TO ADD A MEDIAN 115,000 JOBS IN JUNE (FORECAST RANGE: 25,000–130,000), DOWN FROM 172,000 IN MAY. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 4.3%, WHILE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE 0.3% M/M AND 3.5% Y/Y.
NFP FORECASTS:
• KALSHI: 119K
• CITI: 25K
• TD SECURITIES: 80K
• MORGAN STANLEY: 90K
• WELLS FARGO: 95K
• BARCLAYS: 100K
• DAIWA: 105K
• CAPITAL ECONOMICS: 110K
• BOFA: 110K
• HSBC: 110K
• JPMORGAN: 125K
• GOLDMAN SACHS: 130K
• STANDARD CHARTERED: 130K
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ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE U.S. TO ADD A MEDIAN 115,000 JOBS IN JUNE (FORECAST RANGE: 25,000–130,000), DOWN FROM 172,000 IN MAY. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT 4.3%, WHILE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE 0.3% M/M AND 3.5% Y/Y.
NFP FORECASTS:
• KALSHI: 119K
• CITI: 25K
• TD SECURITIES: 80K
• MORGAN STANLEY: 90K
• WELLS FARGO: 95K
• BARCLAYS: 100K
• DAIWA: 105K
• CAPITAL ECONOMICS: 110K
• BOFA: 110K
• HSBC: 110K
• JPMORGAN: 125K
• GOLDMAN SACHS: 130K
• STANDARD CHARTERED: 130K
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> TRUMP: U.S. PAYS TOO MUCH FOR NATO
PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THE U.S. SPENDS FAR MORE ON NATO THAN ANY OTHER MEMBER WHILE RECEIVING LITTLE IN RETURN.
HE CITED $999 BILLION IN U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING VERSUS $90.5 BILLION FOR THE U.K., $66.5 BILLION FOR FRANCE, $48.8 BILLION FOR ITALY, AND $44.3 BILLION FOR POLAND, CALLING THE IMBALANCE "RIDICULOUS."
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PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THE U.S. SPENDS FAR MORE ON NATO THAN ANY OTHER MEMBER WHILE RECEIVING LITTLE IN RETURN.
HE CITED $999 BILLION IN U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING VERSUS $90.5 BILLION FOR THE U.K., $66.5 BILLION FOR FRANCE, $48.8 BILLION FOR ITALY, AND $44.3 BILLION FOR POLAND, CALLING THE IMBALANCE "RIDICULOUS."
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> DALY: WE ARE IN EARLY STAGES OF A POTENTIAL EXPONENTIAL RISE IN PRODUCTIVITY GAINS FROM AI
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> $TSLA - TESLA CHINA SALES RISE FOR EIGHTH MONTH
TESLA'S CHINA-MADE EV SALES ROSE 24.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR TO 89,091 VEHICLES IN JUNE, MARKING AN EIGHTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF GROWTH.
THE INCREASE WAS DRIVEN BY A CONTINUED RECOVERY IN EUROPEAN DEMAND. TESLA'S SHANGHAI FACTORY SUPPLIES BOTH THE CHINESE MARKET AND EXPORTS VEHICLES TO EUROPE.
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TESLA'S CHINA-MADE EV SALES ROSE 24.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR TO 89,091 VEHICLES IN JUNE, MARKING AN EIGHTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF GROWTH.
THE INCREASE WAS DRIVEN BY A CONTINUED RECOVERY IN EUROPEAN DEMAND. TESLA'S SHANGHAI FACTORY SUPPLIES BOTH THE CHINESE MARKET AND EXPORTS VEHICLES TO EUROPE.
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> TRUMP'S THURSDAY CALENDAR (JULY 2)
🔸 8:00 AM — EXECUTIVE TIME (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 10:30 AM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 11:00 AM — INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 1:30 PM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 2:30 PM — POLICY MEETING (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 4:00 PM — PRE-TAPED INTERVIEW (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 6:00 PM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
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🔸 8:00 AM — EXECUTIVE TIME (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 10:30 AM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 11:00 AM — INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 1:30 PM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 2:30 PM — POLICY MEETING (WHITE HOUSE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 4:00 PM — PRE-TAPED INTERVIEW (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
🔸 6:00 PM — POLICY MEETING (OVAL OFFICE, CLOSED PRESS)
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