> FED LIFTS RATE PATH, INFLATION OUTLOOK RISES

FEDERAL RESERVE PROJECTIONS SHOW THE MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE RISING TO 3.8% IN 2026 (FROM 3.4%), 3.6% IN 2027, AND 3.4% IN 2028, WITH THE LONG-RUN RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.1%. OFFICIALS NOW EXPECT HIGHER INFLATION THROUGH 2026, WITH PCE NOT RETURNING TO THE 2% TARGET UNTIL 2028. GROWTH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER, UNEMPLOYMENT BROADLY STEADY. ONLY 18 OF 19 POLICYMAKERS SUBMITTED PROJECTIONS.

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> FOMC STATEMENT

FED SAYS COMMITTEE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY

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> FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED

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> TRADERS PRICE IN ADDITIONAL FED TIGHTENING AFTER DOTS REVISED

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> TRADERS NOW PRICE IN ANOTHER FEDERAL RESERVE RATE INCREASE AFTER OFFICIALS RAISED THEIR INTEREST RATE FORECASTS

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> FED SIGNALS HIGHER RATE PATH, MARKETS PRICE HAWKISH SHIFT

FEDERAL RESERVE PROJECTIONS SHOW THE MEDIAN FUNDS RATE RISING TO 3.8% IN 2026 (FROM 3.4%), 3.6% IN 2027, AND 3.4% IN 2028, WITH THE LONG-RUN RATE STEADY AT 3.1%. INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED, WITH PCE NOT RETURNING TO 2% UNTIL 2028. MARKETS ARE PRICING A HAWKISH SHIFT, WITH TRADERS ASSIGNING HIGH ODDS OF FURTHER HIKES BEFORE 2028.

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> SPOT GOLD TURNS NEGATIVE, LAST DOWN 0.5% AT $4,304.19/OZ

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> *APRIL FOMC STATEMENT: ~ 350 WORDS

*JUNE FOMC STATEMENT: ~130 WORDS

FED'S CHAIR WARSH DID NOT SUBMIT A DOT ON THE SEP DOT PLOT

WELCOME TO FED WARSH'S REGIME CHANGE

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> FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE

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> WARSH: GOAL IS TO GET MONETARY POLICY RIGHT

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> WARSH: INFLATION WELL AHEAD OF 2% GOAL

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> WARSH: PERSISTENTLY HIGH PRICES A BURDEN

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> WARSH: ALSO ABSENT IS FORWARD GUIDANCE, NOT WELL-SUITED TO CURRENT POLICY STATE

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> 🇺🇸 KEVIN WARSH DELIVERS FIRST FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR.

"GOOD DAY."

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> FED'S WARSH SAYS HIGH PRICES REMAIN A BURDEN AS INFLATION STAYS WELL ABOVE THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S 2% GOAL

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> WARSH: POLICY STATEMENT IS SHORTER, SIMPLER, JUST THE FACTS

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> *TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD RISES 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.15%
()

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> WARSH: INFLATION FRAMEWORK REVIEW TASK IS TO FOCUS ON DRIVERS OF INFLATION

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> WARSH: I SEE NO REASON TO REVISIT 2% INFLATION TARGET

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> WARSH: 'I CAN'T GIVE YOU ANY GUIDANCE ON WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO NEXT'

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> WARSH SAYS FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY STATEMENTS WILL BE SHORTER, FACT-BASED, AND AVOID SIGNALING FUTURE RATE MOVES

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