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🟢The next outbreak? We're not ready

When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.
Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe doesn't look like this. Instead, it looks like this. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes. Now, part of the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. We're not ready for the next epidemic.
Let's look at Ebola. I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough, the problem was that we didn't have a system at all. In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces.
We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go, who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. The case reports came in on paper. It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. We didn't have a medical team ready to go. We didn't have a way of preparing people. Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. No one to look at the diagnostics. No one to figure out what tools should be used. As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried.
So there was a lot that was missing. And these things are really a global failure. The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do these things I talked about. Now, in the movies it's quite different. There's a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go, they move in, they save the day, but that's just pure Hollywood.
The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola Let's look at the progression of Ebola over this year. About 10,000 people died, and nearly all were in the three West African countries. There's three reasons why it didn't spread more. The first is that there was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and they prevented more infections. The second is the nature of the virus. Ebola does not spread through the air. And by the time you're contagious, most people are so sick that they're bedridden. Third, it didn't get into many urban areas. And that was just luck. If it had gotten into a lot more urban areas, the case numbers would have been much larger.
So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.
In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here's what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.
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But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. We've got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving. We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.
The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go. We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies? So they are absolutely ready to go. So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.
What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. That's where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people who've got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military. taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas. We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly.
Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm. The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we'd have millions and millions of deaths. These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. The primary healthcare, the R&D, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe.
So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There's no need to panic. We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.
In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.
Thank you.

#Disease #Ebola #Global_Issues #Medicine #War #Pandemic #Natural_Disaster

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🟢What happens when you have a concussion?

Each year in the United States, players of sports and recreational activities receive between 2.5 and 4 million concussions. How dangerous are all those concussions? The answer is complicated, and lies in how the brain responds when something strikes it. The brain is made of soft fatty tissue, with a consistency something like jello. Inside its protective membranes and the skull's hard casing, this delicate organ is usually well-shielded. But a sudden jolt can make the brain shift and bump against the skull's hard interior, and unlike jello, the brain's tissue isn't uniform. It's made of a vast network of 90 billion neurons, which relay signals through their long axons to communicate throughout the brain and control our bodies. This spindly structure makes them very fragile so that when impacted, neurons will stretch and even tear. That not only disrupts their ability to communicate but as destroyed axons begin to degenerate, they also release toxins causing the death of other neurons, too. This combination of events causes a concussion. The damage can manifest in many different ways including blackout, headache, blurry vision, balance problems, altered mood and behavior, problems with memory, thinking, and sleeping, and the onset of anxiety and depression. Every brain is different, which explains why people's experiences of concussions vary so widely. Luckily, the majority of concussions fully heal and symptoms disappear within a matter of days or weeks. Lots of rest and a gradual return to activity allows the brain to heal itself. On the subject of rest, many people have heard that you're not supposed to sleep shortly after receiving a concussion because you might slip into a coma. That's a myth. So long as doctors aren't concerned there may also be a more severe brain injury, like a brain bleed, there's no documented problem with going to sleep after a concussion. Sometimes, victims of concussion can experience something called post-concussion syndrome, or PCS. People with PCS may experience constant headaches, learning difficulties, and behavioral symptoms that even affect their personal relationships for months or years after the injury. Trying to play through a concussion, even for only a few minutes, or returning to sports too soon after a concussion, makes it more likely to develop PCS. In some cases, a concussion can be hard to diagnose because the symptoms unfold slowly over time. That's often true of subconcussive impacts which result from lower impact jolts to the head than those that cause concussions. This category of injury doesn't cause noticable symptoms right away, but can lead to severe degenerative brain diseases over time if it happens repeatedly. Take soccer players, who are known for repeatedly heading soccer balls. Using a technique called Diffusion Tensor Imaging, we're beginning to find out what effect that has on the brain. This method allows scientists to find large axon bundles and see how milder blows might alter them structurally. In 2013, researchers using this technique discovered that athletes who had headed the ball most, about 1,800 times a year, had damaged the structural integrity of their axon bundles. The damage was similar to how a rope will fail when the individual fibers start to fray. Those players also performed worse on short-term memory tests, so even though no one suffered full-blown concussions, these subconcussive hits added up to measurable damage over time. In fact, researchers know that an overload of subconcussive hits is linked to a degenerative brain disease known as Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, or CTE. People with CTE suffer from changes in their mood and behavior that begin appearing in their 30s or 40s followed by problems with thinking and memory that can, in some cases, even result in dementia. The culprit is a protein called tau. Usually, tau proteins support tiny tubes inside our axons called microtubules.
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It's thought that repeated subconcussive hits damage the microtubules, causing the tau proteins to dislodge and clump together. The clumps disrupt transport and communication along the neuron and drive the breakdown of connections within the brain. Once the tau proteins start clumping together, they cause more clumps to form and continue to spread throughout the brain, even after head impacts have stopped. The data show that at least among football players, between 50 and 80% of concussions go unreported and untreated. Sometimes that's because it's hard to tell a concussion has occurred in the first place. But it's also often due to pressure or a desire to keep going despite the fact that something's wrong. This doesn't just undermine recovery. It's also dangerous. Our brains aren't invincible. They still need us to shield them from harm and help them undo damage once it's been done.

#Health #Memory #Personality #Psychology #Public_Health

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🟢What it takes to launch a telescope?

I'm an astronomer who builds telescopes. I build telescopes because, number one, they are awesome. But number two, I believe if you want to discover a new thing about the universe, you have to look at the universe in a new way. New technologies in astronomy -- things like lenses, photographic plates, all the way up to space telescopes -- each gave us new ways to see the universe and directly led to a new understanding of our place in it.
But those discoveries come with a cost. It took thousands of people and 44 years to get the Hubble Space Telescope from an idea into orbit. It takes time, it takes a tolerance for failure, it takes individual people choosing every day not to give up. I know how hard that choice is because I live it. The reality of my job is that I fail almost all the time and still keep going, because that's how telescopes get built.
The telescope I helped build is called the faint intergalactic-medium red-shifted emission balloon, which is a mouthful, so we call it "FIREBall." And don't worry, it is not going to explode at the end of this story. I've been working on FIREBall for more than 10 years and now lead the team of incredible people who built it. FIREBall is designed to observe some of the faintest structures known: huge clouds of hydrogen gas. These clouds are giant. They are even bigger than whatever you're thinking of. They are huge, huge clouds of hydrogen that we think flow into and out of galaxies. I work on FIREBall because what I really want is to take our view of the universe from one with just light from stars to one where we can see and measure every atom that exists. That's all that I want to do.
But observing at least some of those atoms is crucial to our understanding of why galaxies look the way they do. I want to know how that hydrogen gas gets into a galaxy and creates a star. My work on FIREBall started in 2008, working not on the telescope but on the light sensor, which is the heart of any telescope. This new sensor was being developed by a team that I joined at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. And our goal was to prove that this sensor would work really well to detect that hydrogen gas.
In my work on this, I destroyed several very, very, very expensive sensors before realizing that the machine I was using created a plasma that shorted out anything electrical that we put in it. We used a different machine, there were other challenges, and it took years to get it right. But when that first sensor worked, it was glorious. And our sensors are now 10 times better than the previous state of the art and are getting put into all kinds of new telescopes. Our sensors will give us a new way to see the universe and our place in it.
So, sensors done, time to build a telescope. And FIREBall is weird as far as telescopes go, because it's not in space, and it's not on the ground. Instead, it hangs on a cable from a giant balloon and observes for one night only from 130,000 feet in the stratosphere, at the very edge of space. This is partly because the edge of space is much cheaper than actual space.
So building it, of course, more failures: mirrors that failed, scratched mirrors that had to be remade; cooling system failures, an entire system that had to be remade; calibration failures, we ran tests again and again and again and again; failures when you literally least expect them: we had an adorable but super angry baby falcon that landed on our spectrograph tank one day.
Although to be fair, this was the greatest day in the history of this project.
I really loved that falcon.
But falcon damage fixed, we got it built for an August 2017 launch attempt -- and then failed to launch, due to six weeks of continuous rain in the New Mexico desert.
Our spirits dampened, we showed up again, August 2018, year 10. And on the morning of September 22nd, we finally got the telescope launched.
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I have put so much of myself -- my whole life -- into this project, and I, like, still can't believe that that happened. And I have this picture that's taken right around sunset on that day of our balloon, FIREBall hanging from it, and the nearly full moon. And I love this picture. God, I love it.
But I look at it, and it makes me want to cry, because when fully inflated, these balloons are spherical, and this one isn't. It's shaped like a teardrop. And that's because there is a hole in it. Sometimes balloons fail, too. FIREBall crash-landed in the New Mexico desert, and we didn't get the data that we wanted. And at the end of that day, I thought to myself, "Why am I doing this?"
And I've thought a lot about why since that day. And I've realized that all of my work has been full of things that break and fail, that we don't understand and they fail, that we just get wrong the first time, and so they fail. I think about the thousands of people who built Hubble and how many failures they endured. There were countless failures, heartbreaking failures, even when it was in space. And none of those failures were a reason for them to give up. I think about why I love my job. I want to know what is happening in the universe. You all want to know what's happening in the universe, too. I want to know what's going on with that hydrogen. And so I've realized that discovery is mostly a process of finding things that don't work, and failure is inevitable when you're pushing the limits of knowledge. And that's what I want to do.
So I'm choosing to keep going. And our team is going to do what everyone who has ever built anything before us has done: we're going to try again, in 2020.
And it might feel like a failure today -- and it really does -- but it's only going to stay a failure if I give up.
Thank you very much.

#Science #Astronomy #Telescopes #Technology #Space #Physics #Universe #Collaboration #Personal_Growth

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🟢Adventures of an asteroid hunter

I am holding something remarkably old. It is older than any human artifact, older than life on Earth, older than the continents and the oceans between them. This was formed over four billion years ago in the earliest days of the solar system while the planets were still forming. This rusty lump of nickel and iron may not appear special, but when it is cut open ... you can see that it is different from earthly metals. This pattern reveals metallic crystals that can only form out in space where molten metal can cool extremely slowly, a few degrees every million years. This was once part of a much larger object, one of millions left over after the planets formed. We call these objects asteroids.
Asteroids are our oldest and most numerous cosmic neighbors. This graphic shows near-Earth asteroids orbiting around the Sun, shown in yellow, and swinging close to the Earth's orbit, shown in blue. The sizes of the Earth, Sun and asteroids have been greatly exaggerated so you can see them clearly. Teams of scientists across the globe are searching for these objects, discovering new ones every day, steadily mapping near-Earth space. Much of this work is funded by NASA. I think of the search for these asteroids as a giant public works project, but instead of building a highway, we're charting outer space, building an archive that will last for generations.
These are the 1,556 near-Earth asteroids discovered just last year. And these are all of the known near-Earth asteroids, which at last count was 13,733. Each one has been imaged, cataloged and had its path around the Sun determined. Although it varies from asteroid to asteroid, the paths of most asteroids can be predicted for dozens of years. And the paths of some asteroids can be predicted with incredible precision. For example, scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory predicted where the asteroid Toutatis was going to be four years in advance to within 30 kilometers. In those four years, Toutatis traveled 8.5 billion kilometers. That's a fractional precision of 0.000000004.
Now, the reason I have this beautiful asteroid fragment is because, like all neighbors, asteroids sometimes drop by unexpectedly.
Three years ago today, a small asteroid exploded over the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia. That object was about 19 meters across, or about as big as a convenience store. Objects of this size hit the Earth every 50 years or so.
66 million years ago, a much larger object hit the Earth, causing a massive extinction. 75 percent of plant and animal species were lost, including, sadly, the dinosaurs. That object was about 10 kilometers across, and 10 kilometers is roughly the cruising altitude of a 747 jet. So the next time you're in an airplane, snag a window seat, look out and imagine a rock so enormous that resting on the ground, it just grazes your wingtip. It's so wide that it takes your plane one full minute to fly past it. That's the size of the asteroid that hit the Earth.
It has only been within my lifetime that asteroids have been considered a credible threat to our planet. And since then, there's been a focused effort underway to discover and catalog these objects. I am lucky enough to be part of this effort. I'm part of a team of scientists that use NASA's NEOWISE telescope. Now, NEOWISE was not designed to find asteroids. It was designed to orbit the earth and look far beyond our solar system to seek out the coldest stars and the most luminous galaxies. And it did that very well for its designed lifetime of seven months. But today, six years later, it's still going. We've repurposed it to discover and study asteroids. And although it's a wonderful little space robot, these days it's kind of like a used car. The cryogen that used to refrigerate its sensors is long gone, so we joke that its air-conditioning is broken. It's got 920 million miles on the odometer, but it still runs great and reliably takes a photograph of the sky every 11 seconds. It's taken 23 photos since I began speaking to you.
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One of the reasons NEOWISE is so valuable is that it sees the sky in the thermal infrared. That means that instead of seeing the sunlight that asteroids reflect, NEOWISE sees the heat that they emit. This is a vital capability since some asteroids are as dark as coal and can be difficult or impossible to spot with other telescopes. But all asteroids, light or dark, shine brightly for NEOWISE.
Astronomers are using every technique at their disposal to discover and study asteroids. In 2010, a historic milestone was reached. The community, together, discovered over 90 percent of asteroids bigger than one kilometer across -- objects capable of massive destruction to Earth. But the job's not done yet. An object 140 meters or bigger could decimate a medium-sized country. So far, we've only found 25 percent of those.
We must keep searching the sky for near-Earth asteroids. We are the only species able to understand calculus or build telescopes. We know how to find these objects. This is our responsibility. If we found a hazardous asteroid with significant early warning, we could nudge it out of the way. Unlike earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions, an asteroid impact can be precisely predicted and prevented. What we need to do now is map near-Earth space. We must keep searching the sky.
Thank you.

#Astronomy #Asteroid #Discovery #Exploration #Collaboration #Global_Issues #Nature #Physics #Science #Technology #Solar_System #TED_Fellows #Universe #Space #TED_Books

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