📊Euro under pressure after trade deal reassessed

The euro (EUR) fell by 1.4% on Monday, the sharpest one-day drop in over two months, on worries about growth and the negative impact of the recent trade deal.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The euro suffered steep losses as investors digested information that the trade deal between the EU and the U.S. favoured the latter and hardly lifted the eurozone's economic outlook. France called the trade agreement a 'dark day' for Europe, saying the EU had caved in to the U.S. President Donald Trump with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his economy would suffer significant damage due to the agreed tariffs.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened and climbed by 1% against a basket of currencies overnight. The key factors affecting USD are ongoing U.S.–China trade talks in Stockholm and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision due on Wednesday.

Apart from the ongoing U.S.–China negotiations, the Fed's monetary policy meeting is the main event of the week. The market expects the Fed to leave the interest rate unchanged but price in a rate cut in September. Traders will also watch the officials' comments to get more clues on the U.S. interest rate path.

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GBPJPY consolidated within a tight range slightly above the ascending trendline, indicating neutral momentum while awaiting a clear breakout.

If GBPJPY breaches above 199.50, the price could gain upward momentum toward the next resistance at 201.40, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension.

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and EMA21 could prompt a decline to the following support at 196.00, confluence with EMA78.

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📊 Euro falls sharply as Fed remains cautious

The euro (EUR) extended its decline towards 1.14000, the lowest level since mid-June. A stronger U.S. dollar (USD) pressured the euro as traders reacted to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest policy decision.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled at the press conference that a rate cut in September was far from guaranteed. Powell noted that the Fed would stick to its data-driven approach and that there was no clear plan for the Fed's next meeting. The U.S. dollar further strengthened, rising by nearly 2.5% in three days.

Meanwhile, fresh data showed the eurozone economy grew by a modest 0.1% in Q2, slowing sharply from 0.6% in Q1 but still exceeding expectations. The data was mixed, showing that Germany and Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.1%, while France and Spain's expanded. Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut have also been pushed further out.

EURUSD is now in a freefall after closing way below 1.16000 on Wednesday. There is no significant support as the major trendline on the daily chart has been broken. Much will depend on the U.S. dollar, which reversed its longer-term downtrend and strengthened against the basket of main currencies, especially the euro. Investors should watch the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Jobless Claims data today at 12:30 p.m. UTC for signs of a bigger picture change.

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