📊 U.S.–Japan trade talks stall

USDJPY fell by 0.17% on Wednesday after the U.S.–Japan trade talks stalled, with key disagreements centring on Japan's protection of its domestic rice market.

👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. President Donald Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, effective 1 August. He explicitly ruled out any extension to the deadline, signalling a hard-line stance in negotiations. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described the stance as 'truly regrettable' but emphasised Japan's commitment to dialogue in pursuit of a mutually beneficial agreement.

A local think tank projected that new tariffs could reduce Japan's gross domestic product growth rate by 0.8% in 2025 and by 1.9% cumulatively through 2029. This underlines the potential long-term economic impact of the trade dispute.

The Japanese yen strengthened to around 146.000 on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session as the U.S. dollar retreated amid a sharp decline in Treasury yields. The move reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment, with markets reducing positions in the greenback and seeking the relative safety of the yen amid global uncertainty.

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📊 Gold rises for third consecutive session

Gold (XAU) rose by over 0.32% on Thursday, driven by increased safe-haven flows amid deepening global trade tensions.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors' concerns about the stability of global supply chains and rising geopolitical uncertainty are growing, reinforcing gold's role as a safe-haven asset. XAUUSD usually performs well in times of market uncertainty.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective 1 August and indicated intentions to impose 15–20% tariffs on most other major trading partners. These measures follow earlier threats targeting Brazil and proposed duties on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, adding further pressure to an already fragile global trade environment. Investors are closely monitoring potential retaliatory measures and the potential spillover effects on industrial demand and global growth prospects. Adding to the rising tensions, Trump's call for a 300-basis-point rate cut has fuelled speculation about a dovish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership next year. This rhetoric has raised market concerns about the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored, further enhancing gold's appeal amid potential currency depreciation and an accommodative monetary policy stance.

On the data front, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report was lower than expected, underscoring the resilience of the labour market following last week's robust nonfarm payroll report. Despite strong labour data, markets continue to price in two rate cuts by the end of the year. Current rate futures indicate expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, keeping investors attentive to any hints of future easing amid an evolving macroeconomic backdrop.

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📊 Euro closes week with decline

The euro (EUR) fell towards 1.16700 on Friday, recording nearly a 1% weekly loss as investors adjusted positions in response to escalating trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Trade tensions escalated over the week after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective 1 August and signalled 15% to 20% tariffs on most other major trading partners. Earlier in the week, the Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on copper and Brazilian goods, heightening market concerns over potential disruptions to global supply chains and industrial demand. These measures reinforced investor caution as markets navigated an increasingly complex global trade environment.

On the monetary policy front, Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee pushed back against calls for aggressive rate cuts to ease the government debt burden. His comments highlighted the Fed's cautious approach against a backdrop of political pressure for monetary easing. The remarks added to the uncertainty around the regulator's policy path in 2025, as markets consider the risk of inflation against a potential slowdown in growth.

U.S. economic data continued to show that the labour market remains resilient. The U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened sharply against the euro, supported by risk aversion, relative yield advantages, and investor positioning ahead of upcoming inflation data and the Fed policy signals.

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📊 Bitcoin sets a new high of $116,000

Bitcoin surged to a record high of $116,000 on 10 July, just six days after President Donald Trump signed the $3.3 trillion 'big, beautiful bill'.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The cryptocurrency has risen by 6% since the bill's signing, reflecting strong investor demand for digital assets amid a rapidly evolving macroeconomic backdrop. This latest rally reinforces Bitcoin's position as a key beneficiary of shifting fiscal and monetary policies while attracting renewed interest from institutional investors seeking portfolio diversification.

The 'big, beautiful bill' added $410 billion to U.S. debt, raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and permanently extended key tax cuts. The scale and pace of this fiscal expansion have amplified market concerns over the U.S. debt sustainability and fiscal discipline. As a result, investors are bracing for a structurally higher inflation environment, with rotation out of bonds and into assets such as Bitcoin and gold accelerating in recent sessions.

BTCUSD's rally paused as the pair began to decline during the Asian and early European sessions. No major news is expected today that could significantly influence price dynamics. Analysts project the price to continue moving within its established trend. Institutional participation continues to drive Bitcoin's rise, highlighted by BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, which has tripled in size over just 200 trading days and reached $76 billion in assets under management. By comparison, the largest gold ETF took over 15 years to reach the same milestone, underscoring the speed and scale of institutional flows into Bitcoin.

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Happy Weekend Traders.

The battle is not finished yet.
Everyday we will have to face obstacles that pops out randomly.

We will have to face it no matter what, fighting through the obstacles is part of the lesson too.

As a trader, we must always be prepared and always stay strong no matter what happens.

That's where you see growth happening.
You must suffer through pains.

Overtime it will be fine, face the problem and let's solve it together.

📱