The British pound (GBP) decreased by 0.33% on Monday as investors awaited clearer signals on the fiscal path as the U.K. budget planning process advanced towards the autumn statement.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Labour's recent retreat on proposed welfare reforms, aimed at avoiding internal party rebellion, further compounded fiscal worries. Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged there were 'costs to those concessions'. She highlighted the strain on public finances as the government maintains support measures while delaying tougher structural changes. On the monetary policy front, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in September, with inflation showing signs of easing but remaining above target. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as softening economic data collides with concerns about a potential fiscal squeeze later this year. The prospect of tax rises could further dampen consumer spending, adding complexity to the BoE's rate trajectory in the coming months.
Adding to the pound's weakness, renewed global trade tensions have weighed on broader market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump said that reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 11 August for countries without trade deals. Meanwhile, Trump warned of an additional 10% tariff on countries supporting the 'anti-American policies of BRICS'. These developments have heightened risk aversion in global markets, weighing on sterling as investors seek safer assets amid uncertainty.
GBPUSD rebounded towards 1.36400 during the Asian and early European sessions as concerns deepened over the U.K.'s fiscal outlook. Reeves signalled that tax rises could be on the table in the autumn budget to address a widening public finance gap, telling The Guardian she 'wouldn't rule them out' amid mounting pressure to stabilise debt levels.
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📊 RBA interest rate decision supports AUD
The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.61% on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.85%. The decision diverged from expectations of a potential cut, highlighting the RBA's cautious stance amid a complex global and domestic economic backdrop.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The RBA's decision reflected its preference to wait for clearer signs of slowing inflation before adjusting policy further. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that inflation risks remain persistent, driven by high labour costs and weak productivity growth. These factors could keep inflation above current forecasts and require a longer period of restrictive policy. Adding to the cautious tone, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that the central bank monitors the global environment, specifically citing heightened uncertainty linked to U.S. tariff developments. The bank's attention to external risks underscores its sensitivity to global economic headwinds that could impact growth and trade dynamics.
In the latest trade developments, U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out extending tariff deadlines beyond 1 August. He also announced new duties: 50% on copper imports, a potential 200% on pharmaceuticals, and 10% on goods from BRICS countries. These actions are expected to heighten global trade tensions, potentially impacting commodity flows and global inflation, factors that the RBA and markets will continue to monitor closely.
The Australian dollar held steady around 0.65300 during the Asian and early European sessions. Market participants remain focused on today's release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The release could provide further insight into the Fed's stance on monetary policy. Hawkish rhetoric will likely put bearish pressure on AUDUSD, while a dovish tone will support the current bullish trend.
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The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.61% on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.85%. The decision diverged from expectations of a potential cut, highlighting the RBA's cautious stance amid a complex global and domestic economic backdrop.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The RBA's decision reflected its preference to wait for clearer signs of slowing inflation before adjusting policy further. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that inflation risks remain persistent, driven by high labour costs and weak productivity growth. These factors could keep inflation above current forecasts and require a longer period of restrictive policy. Adding to the cautious tone, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that the central bank monitors the global environment, specifically citing heightened uncertainty linked to U.S. tariff developments. The bank's attention to external risks underscores its sensitivity to global economic headwinds that could impact growth and trade dynamics.
In the latest trade developments, U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out extending tariff deadlines beyond 1 August. He also announced new duties: 50% on copper imports, a potential 200% on pharmaceuticals, and 10% on goods from BRICS countries. These actions are expected to heighten global trade tensions, potentially impacting commodity flows and global inflation, factors that the RBA and markets will continue to monitor closely.
The Australian dollar held steady around 0.65300 during the Asian and early European sessions. Market participants remain focused on today's release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The release could provide further insight into the Fed's stance on monetary policy. Hawkish rhetoric will likely put bearish pressure on AUDUSD, while a dovish tone will support the current bullish trend.
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The euro (EUR) rose by 0.14% on Tuesday as markets assessed the latest escalation in U.S. trade policy.
👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the newly announced tariffs on 14 countries would take effect as planned on 1 August. According to EU officials, the European Union appears to have secured exemptions from the baseline 10% tariff rate. This should provide some relief to transatlantic trade flows and help reduce immediate market volatility in the euro.
Further tightening the trade measures, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports and signalled that additional sector-specific levies could be introduced. Particularly striking was his announcement of potential tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical imports. However, these would be delayed by 12–18 months, giving the industry time to adjust supply chains and pricing strategies.
EURUSD fell during today's Asian and early European sessions. Investors are now focusing on June's FOMC Meeting Minutes today at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The minutes could provide clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, which will be crucial in shaping the U.S. dollar's path. Key levels to watch for EURUSD are support at 1.11690 and resistance at 1.17500.
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Gold (XAU) declined by over 1% on Tuesday as a restrained dovish tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) tempered investor enthusiasm. Although concerns over trade tensions persist, the market is reassessing the near-term outlook for precious metals amid shifting monetary policy expectations.
👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed there would be no extensions to the 1 August deadline, escalating trade tensions. The new tariffs include 50% on copper imports, up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, and 10% on goods from BRICS nations. These measures are likely to heighten global trade clashes and could impact supply chains across multiple sectors.
At the same time, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Fed have decreased following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week, which eased concerns about a significant economic slowdown. The labour market's resilience suggests that the Fed may maintain a more cautious approach, reducing the likelihood of aggressive easing in the near term.
Gold stabilised around $3,300 during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Investors are now focused on June's FOMC Meeting Minutes today at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The minutes could offer deeper insight into the central bank's policy stance against a complex backdrop of inflationary pressures and trade policy uncertainty.
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AUDUSD, 10-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
AUDUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.65520.
Set your stop loss at 0.65310 below the previous low ($2.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.65730 ($2.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
👉General outlook
AUDUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.65520.
Set your stop loss at 0.65310 below the previous low ($2.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.65730 ($2.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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ETHUSD extended its rally after reclaiming both EMAs. The price holds above 2700, with diverging bullish EMAs confirming the ongoing momentum.
If ETHUSD surges above 2700, the price may retest the resistance at 3050.
On the contrary, if ETHUSD returns below 2700, the price may consolidate within the range of 2350-2700.
Are you buying it or selling it?
If ETHUSD surges above 2700, the price may retest the resistance at 3050.
On the contrary, if ETHUSD returns below 2700, the price may consolidate within the range of 2350-2700.
Are you buying it or selling it?
📊 Tariff-related inflation risks support gold
Gold (XAU) rose by over 0.35% on Wednesday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Markets remain focused on tariff demand letters from U.S. President Donald Trump, with Brazil the latest country to face steep duties on copper and other imports. The tariffs have fuelled concerns about broader trade disruptions and potential impacts on global supply chains.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June meeting revealed disagreements among officials about the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts. While most anticipated some easing later this year, views ranged from supporting a reduction as early as July to favouring no cuts until year-end. The Fed maintained a cautious, data-driven stance amid mixed economic signals. Officials highlighted tariff-related inflation risks, slowing consumer spending, and a still-strong labour market as key factors shaping their policy outlook in the months ahead.
Gold rose to around $3,320 during today's Asian and early European trading sessions. XAUUSD extended gains from the previous session as investors monitored trade developments and digested the latest FOMC Minutes. A weaker U.S. dollar also supports the precious metal, attracting safe-haven flows amid ongoing market uncertainty.
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Gold (XAU) rose by over 0.35% on Wednesday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Markets remain focused on tariff demand letters from U.S. President Donald Trump, with Brazil the latest country to face steep duties on copper and other imports. The tariffs have fuelled concerns about broader trade disruptions and potential impacts on global supply chains.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) June meeting revealed disagreements among officials about the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts. While most anticipated some easing later this year, views ranged from supporting a reduction as early as July to favouring no cuts until year-end. The Fed maintained a cautious, data-driven stance amid mixed economic signals. Officials highlighted tariff-related inflation risks, slowing consumer spending, and a still-strong labour market as key factors shaping their policy outlook in the months ahead.
Gold rose to around $3,320 during today's Asian and early European trading sessions. XAUUSD extended gains from the previous session as investors monitored trade developments and digested the latest FOMC Minutes. A weaker U.S. dollar also supports the precious metal, attracting safe-haven flows amid ongoing market uncertainty.
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📊 Weakening U.S. dollar supports euro
The euro (EUR) rose to around 1.17500 on Thursday as investors moved into riskier assets amid a broad rally in equities and commodities.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Easing trade tensions and resilient corporate earnings have reduced demand for the U.S. dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset, supporting other currencies. U.S. Treasury yields also moved lower following robust demand in Wednesday's 10-year note auction, further pressuring the greenback. The decline in yields reflects market expectations of potential policy easing and increased appetite for U.S. debt, highlighting investor positioning ahead of upcoming economic data releases.
On the monetary policy front, minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting signalled that most officials are open to considering interest rate cuts later this year if economic conditions warrant support. The Fed maintained its data-dependent approach, carefully weighing slowing consumer activity and inflation risks linked to ongoing trade uncertainties.
EURUSD continued to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. Markets now focus on potential trade negotiations with India and the EU, which could shape near-term currency moves and risk sentiment. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may cause volatility across all USD pairs. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay rate cuts and push EURUSD below 1.17000. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results could weigh on the U.S. dollar and lift EURUSD above 1.18000.
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The euro (EUR) rose to around 1.17500 on Thursday as investors moved into riskier assets amid a broad rally in equities and commodities.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Easing trade tensions and resilient corporate earnings have reduced demand for the U.S. dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset, supporting other currencies. U.S. Treasury yields also moved lower following robust demand in Wednesday's 10-year note auction, further pressuring the greenback. The decline in yields reflects market expectations of potential policy easing and increased appetite for U.S. debt, highlighting investor positioning ahead of upcoming economic data releases.
On the monetary policy front, minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting signalled that most officials are open to considering interest rate cuts later this year if economic conditions warrant support. The Fed maintained its data-dependent approach, carefully weighing slowing consumer activity and inflation risks linked to ongoing trade uncertainties.
EURUSD continued to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. Markets now focus on potential trade negotiations with India and the EU, which could shape near-term currency moves and risk sentiment. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may cause volatility across all USD pairs. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay rate cuts and push EURUSD below 1.17000. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results could weigh on the U.S. dollar and lift EURUSD above 1.18000.
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