📊 Gold pressured by trade tariffs

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump posted letters on Truth Social addressed to the leaders of 14 countries. He threatened to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports unless countries address trade imbalances. The letters targeted China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and India, escalating global trade tensions just weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention. Preliminary estimates suggest the tariffs could affect over $1.2 trillion in goods, raising concerns among multinational exporters and supply chain operators.

👉 Possible effects for traders

However, market fears eased somewhat after Trump signed an executive order late on Monday delaying the implementation of tariffs from 9 July to 1 August, granting over three additional weeks for negotiations. The delay also applies to the sweeping 'reciprocal tariffs' plan targeting most U.S. trade partners. Trump stated this would 'allow allies to come to the table' while maintaining pressure for new bilateral deals.

Adding further pressure on gold, a robust U.S. jobs report released on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, significantly above the 110,000 expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell towards 4.1%. The data have alleviated concerns of a slowing U.S. economy, prompting traders to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in July. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate cut this month has fallen below 6%, down from 42% just a week ago. Expectations of a less dovish monetary policy are pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on demand for non-yielding assets such as gold (XAU).

Gold prices fell towards $3,330 during the Asian and early European trading sessions, sliding from the recent high of $3,410. The decline happened amid optimism that potential trade deals before August could reduce geopolitical risks and the demand for the metal. Analysts at Citi noted that if a last-minute trade deal is reached with China, gold could test support near $3,250 in the coming weeks, while continued uncertainty may trigger a quick rebound towards $3,400.

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📊 Euro declines as chances of Fed rate cuts decrease

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.6% on Monday due to worries about trade tensions and reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

👉 Possible effects for traders

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariff rates targeting 14 countries that have yet to secure trade deals with Washington. The announcement triggered caution in currency markets, as investors considered the potential impact on global trade flows and the broader economic outlook if the measures take effect next month.

Major exporters such as Japan and South Korea are among the countries on the list. Both countries will face 25% levies on a range of goods if new trade agreements aren't reached. Trump also threatened an additional 10% tariff on nations aligning with what he described as the 'anti-American policies of BRICS', as the bloc gathered for a summit in Brazil this week. The president's remarks reflect Washington's increasingly aggressive stance towards trade partners as it seeks to reduce budget deficits ahead of the upcoming election cycle.

EURUSD started to rise during today's Asian and early European sessions. Today's economic calendar is relatively uneventful, so volatility is likely to be low. However, investors should monitor potential shifts in U.S. trade policy closely. These developments could significantly impact the market. Key levels to watch are support at 1.11700 and resistance at 1.17500.

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📊 GBP weakens due to the U.K.'s fiscal worries

The British pound (GBP) decreased by 0.33% on Monday as investors awaited clearer signals on the fiscal path as the U.K. budget planning process advanced towards the autumn statement.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Labour's recent retreat on proposed welfare reforms, aimed at avoiding internal party rebellion, further compounded fiscal worries. Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged there were 'costs to those concessions'. She highlighted the strain on public finances as the government maintains support measures while delaying tougher structural changes. On the monetary policy front, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in September, with inflation showing signs of easing but remaining above target. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as softening economic data collides with concerns about a potential fiscal squeeze later this year. The prospect of tax rises could further dampen consumer spending, adding complexity to the BoE's rate trajectory in the coming months.

Adding to the pound's weakness, renewed global trade tensions have weighed on broader market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump said that reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 11 August for countries without trade deals. Meanwhile, Trump warned of an additional 10% tariff on countries supporting the 'anti-American policies of BRICS'. These developments have heightened risk aversion in global markets, weighing on sterling as investors seek safer assets amid uncertainty.

GBPUSD rebounded towards 1.36400 during the Asian and early European sessions as concerns deepened over the U.K.'s fiscal outlook. Reeves signalled that tax rises could be on the table in the autumn budget to address a widening public finance gap, telling The Guardian she 'wouldn't rule them out' amid mounting pressure to stabilise debt levels.

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📊 EU may secure exemptions from U.S. trade tariffs

The euro (EUR) rose by 0.14% on Tuesday as markets assessed the latest escalation in U.S. trade policy.

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the newly announced tariffs on 14 countries would take effect as planned on 1 August. According to EU officials, the European Union appears to have secured exemptions from the baseline 10% tariff rate. This should provide some relief to transatlantic trade flows and help reduce immediate market volatility in the euro.

Further tightening the trade measures, Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports and signalled that additional sector-specific levies could be introduced. Particularly striking was his announcement of potential tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical imports. However, these would be delayed by 12–18 months, giving the industry time to adjust supply chains and pricing strategies.

EURUSD fell during today's Asian and early European sessions. Investors are now focusing on June's FOMC Meeting Minutes today at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The minutes could provide clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory, which will be crucial in shaping the U.S. dollar's path. Key levels to watch for EURUSD are support at 1.11690 and resistance at 1.17500.

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📊 Fed's caution tempers gold investors' enthusiasm

Gold (XAU) declined by over 1% on Tuesday as a restrained dovish tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) tempered investor enthusiasm. Although concerns over trade tensions persist, the market is reassessing the near-term outlook for precious metals amid shifting monetary policy expectations.

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed there would be no extensions to the 1 August deadline, escalating trade tensions. The new tariffs include 50% on copper imports, up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, and 10% on goods from BRICS nations. These measures are likely to heighten global trade clashes and could impact supply chains across multiple sectors.

At the same time, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Fed have decreased following a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week, which eased concerns about a significant economic slowdown. The labour market's resilience suggests that the Fed may maintain a more cautious approach, reducing the likelihood of aggressive easing in the near term.

Gold stabilised around $3,300 during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Investors are now focused on June's FOMC Meeting Minutes today at 6:00 p.m. UTC. The minutes could offer deeper insight into the central bank's policy stance against a complex backdrop of inflationary pressures and trade policy uncertainty.

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