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📊 Strong NFP data put downward pressure on gold

Yesterday's U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data showed that the labour market remains resilient, putting downward pressure on gold.

👉 Possible effects for traders

In June, companies created more jobs than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped towards 4.1%. The overall report was better than expected, reducing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, which could weigh on gold prices in the short term.

Gold began to recover during the Asian session due to concerns about the U.S. budget deficit. On Thursday, the House of Representatives approved U.S. President Donald Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill, which is expected to add more than $3 trillion to the country's budget deficit over the next decade.

Tariff pressure remains: Trump will begin sending letters to countries on Friday outlining the tariff rates they will face when exporting goods to the U.S. These factors increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

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📊 EURUSD drops sharply after strong NFP data

The euro (EUR) fell against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of June nonfarm payroll (NFP) data. EURUSD fell by around 0.45%, reaching 1.17440.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Investors focused on Thursday's NFP report, released during a shortened week ahead of U.S. Independence Day on Friday. The report showed why the Federal Reserve (Fed) isn't hurrying to reduce borrowing costs. The data showed more jobs than expected were added in June, with the unemployment rate falling towards around 4.1%. However, average hourly earnings remained steady. Overall, the data dampened investors' hopes of an imminent rate cut.

Despite strong domestic data, a new massive bill proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar. The package is expected to increase the country's budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This pushed EURUSD higher, with the pair rebounding by 0.58% after news that the House of Representatives passed Trump's bill.

Today, President Trump will begin sending letters to countries indicating the tariff rates they will face when importing into the U.S. High tariffs could further support EURUSD's rise.

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📊 Bitcoin resumes growth amid ETF inflows and Trump's support

Over the past two days, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a steady recovery, climbing above $110,000. Several factors have contributed to BTCUSD's rise: institutional inflows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), positive statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, and easing regulatory pressure.

👉 Possible effects for traders

One of the key drivers of this rise was a sharp increase in investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows in recent weeks have reached around $11 billion, with total investments approaching $50 billion. This has supported BTC as an asset class comparable to digital gold.

The additional bullish impetus came from the political arena. In his statements, Donald Trump confirmed his support for the cryptocurrency market. His statements had a positive impact on not only BTC price but also on shares of companies related to the crypto industry, such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase.

Despite the uptrend, data from the futures markets show an increase in the volume of short positions, with open interest rising from $32 billion towards $35 billion. This may indicate possible volatility and the risk of correction, especially if BTCUSD breaks below key resistance levels.

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📊 Gold pressured by trade tariffs

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump posted letters on Truth Social addressed to the leaders of 14 countries. He threatened to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports unless countries address trade imbalances. The letters targeted China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and India, escalating global trade tensions just weeks ahead of the Republican National Convention. Preliminary estimates suggest the tariffs could affect over $1.2 trillion in goods, raising concerns among multinational exporters and supply chain operators.

👉 Possible effects for traders

However, market fears eased somewhat after Trump signed an executive order late on Monday delaying the implementation of tariffs from 9 July to 1 August, granting over three additional weeks for negotiations. The delay also applies to the sweeping 'reciprocal tariffs' plan targeting most U.S. trade partners. Trump stated this would 'allow allies to come to the table' while maintaining pressure for new bilateral deals.

Adding further pressure on gold, a robust U.S. jobs report released on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, significantly above the 110,000 expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell towards 4.1%. The data have alleviated concerns of a slowing U.S. economy, prompting traders to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in July. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate cut this month has fallen below 6%, down from 42% just a week ago. Expectations of a less dovish monetary policy are pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on demand for non-yielding assets such as gold (XAU).

Gold prices fell towards $3,330 during the Asian and early European trading sessions, sliding from the recent high of $3,410. The decline happened amid optimism that potential trade deals before August could reduce geopolitical risks and the demand for the metal. Analysts at Citi noted that if a last-minute trade deal is reached with China, gold could test support near $3,250 in the coming weeks, while continued uncertainty may trigger a quick rebound towards $3,400.

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📊 Euro declines as chances of Fed rate cuts decrease

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.6% on Monday due to worries about trade tensions and reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

👉 Possible effects for traders

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariff rates targeting 14 countries that have yet to secure trade deals with Washington. The announcement triggered caution in currency markets, as investors considered the potential impact on global trade flows and the broader economic outlook if the measures take effect next month.

Major exporters such as Japan and South Korea are among the countries on the list. Both countries will face 25% levies on a range of goods if new trade agreements aren't reached. Trump also threatened an additional 10% tariff on nations aligning with what he described as the 'anti-American policies of BRICS', as the bloc gathered for a summit in Brazil this week. The president's remarks reflect Washington's increasingly aggressive stance towards trade partners as it seeks to reduce budget deficits ahead of the upcoming election cycle.

EURUSD started to rise during today's Asian and early European sessions. Today's economic calendar is relatively uneventful, so volatility is likely to be low. However, investors should monitor potential shifts in U.S. trade policy closely. These developments could significantly impact the market. Key levels to watch are support at 1.11700 and resistance at 1.17500.

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📊 GBP weakens due to the U.K.'s fiscal worries

The British pound (GBP) decreased by 0.33% on Monday as investors awaited clearer signals on the fiscal path as the U.K. budget planning process advanced towards the autumn statement.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Labour's recent retreat on proposed welfare reforms, aimed at avoiding internal party rebellion, further compounded fiscal worries. Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged there were 'costs to those concessions'. She highlighted the strain on public finances as the government maintains support measures while delaying tougher structural changes. On the monetary policy front, markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in September, with inflation showing signs of easing but remaining above target. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act as softening economic data collides with concerns about a potential fiscal squeeze later this year. The prospect of tax rises could further dampen consumer spending, adding complexity to the BoE's rate trajectory in the coming months.

Adding to the pound's weakness, renewed global trade tensions have weighed on broader market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump said that reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 11 August for countries without trade deals. Meanwhile, Trump warned of an additional 10% tariff on countries supporting the 'anti-American policies of BRICS'. These developments have heightened risk aversion in global markets, weighing on sterling as investors seek safer assets amid uncertainty.

GBPUSD rebounded towards 1.36400 during the Asian and early European sessions as concerns deepened over the U.K.'s fiscal outlook. Reeves signalled that tax rises could be on the table in the autumn budget to address a widening public finance gap, telling The Guardian she 'wouldn't rule them out' amid mounting pressure to stabilise debt levels.

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