📊 Prospect of trade agreement supports Japanese yen

The Japanese yen (JPY) rebounded to around 143.700 on Wednesday, recovering as improving trade sentiment and a softer U.S. dollar (USD) underpinned demand for JPY.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Market participants expect that positive trade developments could ease uncertainty and provide a firmer backdrop for the yen while investors reassess near-term risks in currency markets. Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to reach a 'win-win' trade agreement with the U.S., although specifics on potential concessions remain unclear. The reassurance comes amid heightened focus on Japan's trade positioning as negotiations with the U.S. continue to evolve. Maintaining constructive dialogue with Washington is critical for Japan, particularly as it navigates the implications of potential protectionist measures.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, intensified pressure on Tokyo by labelling the ongoing negotiations as 'really hard' and floated the prospect of tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. The administration cited dissatisfaction with Japan's limited purchases of rice and automobiles from the U.S., highlighting persistent trade imbalances. These comments caused caution in the market, with participants monitoring for any escalation that could impact Japan's export-dependent economy.

USDJPY rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Weaker-than-expected labour data could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July, supporting the yen through narrowing interest rate differentials. Otherwise, the Japanese yen will likely weaken, and USDJPY will continue rising.

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📊 Strong NFP data put downward pressure on gold

Yesterday's U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data showed that the labour market remains resilient, putting downward pressure on gold.

👉 Possible effects for traders

In June, companies created more jobs than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped towards 4.1%. The overall report was better than expected, reducing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, which could weigh on gold prices in the short term.

Gold began to recover during the Asian session due to concerns about the U.S. budget deficit. On Thursday, the House of Representatives approved U.S. President Donald Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill, which is expected to add more than $3 trillion to the country's budget deficit over the next decade.

Tariff pressure remains: Trump will begin sending letters to countries on Friday outlining the tariff rates they will face when exporting goods to the U.S. These factors increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

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📊 EURUSD drops sharply after strong NFP data

The euro (EUR) fell against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of June nonfarm payroll (NFP) data. EURUSD fell by around 0.45%, reaching 1.17440.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Investors focused on Thursday's NFP report, released during a shortened week ahead of U.S. Independence Day on Friday. The report showed why the Federal Reserve (Fed) isn't hurrying to reduce borrowing costs. The data showed more jobs than expected were added in June, with the unemployment rate falling towards around 4.1%. However, average hourly earnings remained steady. Overall, the data dampened investors' hopes of an imminent rate cut.

Despite strong domestic data, a new massive bill proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar. The package is expected to increase the country's budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This pushed EURUSD higher, with the pair rebounding by 0.58% after news that the House of Representatives passed Trump's bill.

Today, President Trump will begin sending letters to countries indicating the tariff rates they will face when importing into the U.S. High tariffs could further support EURUSD's rise.

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📊 Bitcoin resumes growth amid ETF inflows and Trump's support

Over the past two days, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a steady recovery, climbing above $110,000. Several factors have contributed to BTCUSD's rise: institutional inflows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), positive statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, and easing regulatory pressure.

👉 Possible effects for traders

One of the key drivers of this rise was a sharp increase in investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows in recent weeks have reached around $11 billion, with total investments approaching $50 billion. This has supported BTC as an asset class comparable to digital gold.

The additional bullish impetus came from the political arena. In his statements, Donald Trump confirmed his support for the cryptocurrency market. His statements had a positive impact on not only BTC price but also on shares of companies related to the crypto industry, such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase.

Despite the uptrend, data from the futures markets show an increase in the volume of short positions, with open interest rising from $32 billion towards $35 billion. This may indicate possible volatility and the risk of correction, especially if BTCUSD breaks below key resistance levels.

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