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📊 Gold rises amid persistent weakness in U.S. dollar

Gold prices (XAU) rose by 0.57% on Wednesday after the ADP report showed that American employers shed 33,000 jobs last month

👉 Possible effects for traders

The data showed that private-sector payrolls unexpectedly fell in June for the first time in over two years, raising concerns about the resilience of the U.S. labour market. The report has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, which usually supports non-yielding assets like gold.

Renewed geopolitical tensions also provided modest support for gold, as Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. Although recent trade agreements have reduced the immediate need for gold as a safe-haven asset, the combination of a weaker U.S. dollar, soft labour data, and geopolitical risks continues to support the broader upward trend for gold in the medium term. Thus, investors will keep their attention on upcoming macroeconomic data and Fed comments to get more data on gold's possible moves.

XAUUSD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Gold retreated towards approximately $3,340, losing some gains from the previous session as improving trade sentiment diminished the metal's safe-haven demand. The pullback followed the announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam. The deal includes the removal of select tariffs on Vietnamese goods in exchange for enhanced market access for U.S. exports. The agreement has fuelled hopes for further bilateral trade deals, reducing the immediate demand for gold as a hedge.

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📊 Euro consolidates as traders await NFP report

The euro (EUR) remained unchanged against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday.

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.S. private payroll data released by ADP revealed an unexpected decline of 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first contraction in over two years. The report raised concerns about a potential slowdown in the labour market. The data added to worries that employment may be softening, which could have broader implications for consumer spending and economic growth in the coming months.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, which will impose a 20% tariff on imports from the country. The agreement sparked optimism that additional bilateral trade deals may follow, clarifying trade policy while aiming to support domestic industries. Meanwhile, Trump's proposed tax-and-spending package, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, is facing resistance in the House of Representatives. The debate over the plan has highlighted concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory, adding to broader uncertainties in the policy landscape as markets assess the potential impact on growth, inflation, and future Federal Reserve policy actions.

EURUSD held steady around 1.18000 on Thursday, reaching over a three-year high as markets are focusing on the upcoming U.S. jobs report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 110,000 in June 2025, the smallest in four months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to edge up towards 4.3% from 4.2%. The data may affect interest rate expectations and investor sentiment, increasing volatility in the Forex market. Higher-than-expected results will likely push EURUSD down towards 1.17400. Otherwise, the pair could rise towards 1.18400.

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📊 Prospect of trade agreement supports Japanese yen

The Japanese yen (JPY) rebounded to around 143.700 on Wednesday, recovering as improving trade sentiment and a softer U.S. dollar (USD) underpinned demand for JPY.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Market participants expect that positive trade developments could ease uncertainty and provide a firmer backdrop for the yen while investors reassess near-term risks in currency markets. Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to reach a 'win-win' trade agreement with the U.S., although specifics on potential concessions remain unclear. The reassurance comes amid heightened focus on Japan's trade positioning as negotiations with the U.S. continue to evolve. Maintaining constructive dialogue with Washington is critical for Japan, particularly as it navigates the implications of potential protectionist measures.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, intensified pressure on Tokyo by labelling the ongoing negotiations as 'really hard' and floated the prospect of tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. The administration cited dissatisfaction with Japan's limited purchases of rice and automobiles from the U.S., highlighting persistent trade imbalances. These comments caused caution in the market, with participants monitoring for any escalation that could impact Japan's export-dependent economy.

USDJPY rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Weaker-than-expected labour data could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as July, supporting the yen through narrowing interest rate differentials. Otherwise, the Japanese yen will likely weaken, and USDJPY will continue rising.

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