📊 Bitcoin rises despite broader market uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near the $108,000 mark on Thursday as investors assessed the evolving macroeconomic and regulatory landscape.

👉 Possible effects for traders

A key driver of sentiment remains the Federal Reserve's (Fed) increasingly dovish stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated in recent testimony that rate cuts are possible if inflation continues to moderate. This shift has lowered yields on traditional safe-haven assets and increased demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar Index is approaching multi-year lows, with Bitcoin benefiting from its inverse correlation to the greenback and attracting additional interest from institutional investors.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin's network health remains robust, with the hash rate hovering near all-time highs and transaction fees stabilising at sustainable levels after April's halving. Miner profitability has improved due to rising prices and greater operational efficiencies, supporting the long-term security of the blockchain. Additionally, on-chain data indicates increased holding behaviour among long-term wallets, suggesting sustained conviction among core market participants. While short-term catalysts may depend on macroeconomic data and central bank signals, Bitcoin's broader adoption trajectory and growing integration into global portfolios underpin a bullish long-term thesis.

BTCUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders will focus on the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility and shed light on potential shifts in the U.S. monetary policy. Key BTCUSD levels to watch are support at $106,000 and resistance at $108,360.

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📊 Euro rises on dovish Fed rhetoric

The euro (EUR) continued to rise on Thursday, reaching its highest point since September 2021, as markets increasingly priced in a more dovish monetary policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Speculation over U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential nomination of a new Fed Chair by September or October added pressure to the U.S. dollar (USD), as investors anticipated a shift towards looser financial conditions. The possibility of a 'shadow' leadership dynamic at the central bank raised questions about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a notably dovish tone in his recent congressional testimony, weighing further on the U.S. dollar. He emphasised that in the absence of tariff-induced inflation, the Fed would likely have continued its cutting rates—signalling that the central bank remains open to easing if economic conditions permit. His comments reinforced expectations for policy flexibility and supported market projections for significant rate cuts in the coming months. Broader risk sentiment improved after the White House downplayed the urgency of looming tariff deadlines, helping to ease fears of a prolonged trade conflict and reducing safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. These factors continue to shape a stronger outlook for the euro.

Today, traders are watching for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and may offer additional clues on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts. If the figures exceed forecasts, EURUSD may correct sharply downwards. Otherwise, the bullish trend is likely to continue.

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📊 Gold is under pressure due to uncertainty about Fed interest rate path

Gold prices (XAU) fell by 0.12% on Thursday despite a weakening U.S. dollar (USD) as investors continued to recalibrate expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A weaker U.S. dollar typically supports gold, but the market appeared to focus instead on mixed signals from economic data and central bank commentary. Investors remain cautious, awaiting clearer confirmation of the Fed's rate path amid growing political and macroeconomic uncertainty.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Speculation is mounting that U.S. President Donald Trump may announce his nominee for the Fed Chair role in September or October. Markets anticipate a candidate who is inclined towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the absence of new tariffs would contribute to disinflation, potentially opening the door to multiple rate cuts if aggressive trade measures are avoided. His comments reinforced the notion that the Fed remains flexible and data-dependent but fell short of committing to immediate easing.

Recent U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture. A revised gross domestic product reading showed the economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1, fuelling dovish expectations. However, this was partially offset by a drop in jobless claims towards a five-week low and a surprising surge in durable goods orders—the strongest in over a decade—suggesting underlying resilience.

XAUUSD continued declining during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Market attention is now on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report due at 12:30 p.m. UTC today. The data could provide further insights into how the Fed plans its monetary policy path. Higher-than-expected figures will likely deepen downward pressure on XAUUSD, while weaker numbers could give gold bullish momentum.

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