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📊 Geopolitical tensions boost demand for AUD

The Australian dollar (AUD) closed at 0.64700 on Tuesday, recovering as rising oil prices supported demand for commodity-linked currencies. The surge in crude oil prices was fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which usually benefits the currency due to Australia's strong trade ties to global commodity markets.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment remained cautious as the conflict between Israel and Iran continued for a sixth straight day. U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his rhetoric, demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and signalling potential U.S. intervention. This heightened geopolitical risk pushed oil prices higher, bolstering the Australian dollar. However, AUD's rise may be limited in the near term as broader risk-off sentiment continues to dominate global markets amid the ongoing hostilities.

On the domestic front, Australia's Leading Economic Index declined by 0.1% in May, pointing to a sluggish and uneven economic recovery. Investors are now focused on Thursday's labour market report, which should offer insights into employment trends and help shape expectations for future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia. A strong jobs print could provide near-term support for the Australian dollar and potentially shift the outlook on interest rates.

AUDUSD moved higher during Asian and early European trading sessions. Two significant events could significantly impact this pair today: the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. These data releases will give the market insights into the Fed's future policy direction.

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📊 Euro falls sharply pressured by safe-haven demand

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.69% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday, holding on to recent gains as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Tuesday’s nearly 1% euro slump was largely driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. The situation escalated further after U.S. President Donald Trump demanded Iran's 'unconditional surrender'. He also threatened a direct strike against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in posts on Truth Social, injecting volatility into global markets.

Traders are also watching upcoming U.S. housing figures and weekly jobless claims data, which will come out today. Meanwhile, May retail sales came in below expectations, though underlying consumer demand remained relatively solid, buoyed by strong wage growth and a resilient labour market—factors that could complicate the Fed's outlook.

EURUSD rebounded during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on the Fed interest rate decision and Jobless Claims report. Analysts expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged amid ongoing inflationary pressures. Still, investors will pay more attention to the Fed's updated economic projections and any signals about how policymakers interpret the potential impact of Trump's policies on the broader economic outlook.

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📊 Gold awaits Fed's interest rate decision

Gold (XAU) slipped to around $3,380 on Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on prices. The metal pulled back despite heightened risk sentiment in global markets as investors continued to digest developments in the Middle East.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The conflict between Israel and Iran continued for the sixth consecutive day, with Israel confirming fresh strikes near Tehran and reporting missile launches originating from Iran. U.S. President Trump convened a meeting with his national security team, fueling speculation that Washington may deepen its involvement in the conflict. This raised concerns about a broader regional escalation that could impact global markets.

Amid these geopolitical risks, investors are also closely watching the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming policy decision. While the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, market participants are looking for signals on the future rate trajectory. Supporting the long-term outlook for gold, a recent World Gold Council survey revealed that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise the next year, with a record 43% planning to increase their own holdings.

XAUUSD rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today is the week's most important event—the Fed interest rate decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the Fed to leave its base rate unchanged in the 4.25–4.5% range. The decision itself may not affect the market, but new details in the Statement and during the press conference may cause volatility in USD. Traders will pay close attention to the economic outlook and the so-called 'dot plot' to understand the central bank's policy trajectory. The dot plot is a chart that visually represents the projections of each FOMC member for the target range of the federal funds rate. If the Fed downgrades its economic forecast and the FOMC dots median decreases while the Fed Chair hints that more rate cuts are coming, XAUUSD will rise. If the FOMC Statement includes better economic assessments, the dots median rises, and Jerome Powell sounds less dovish or even hawkish, XAUUSD may drop significantly.

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