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🔼 Japanese yen strengthens as safe-haven flows increase

The Japanese yen (JPY) rose by 0.43% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday, marking its third consecutive session of gains. The rise was driven by investors seeking refuge in traditional safe-haven assets amid mounting geopolitical instability.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The yen's rally was primarily driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East following Israel’s strike on Iran, which targeted critical nuclear infrastructure. Israeli officials signalled the continuation of military operations until the perceived threat is fully neutralised. Global markets responded with heightened risk aversion, boosting demand for lower-risk currencies such as the Japanese yen.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened unilateral tariffs to pressure trading partners into renegotiating deals, adding to the uncertainty. The prospect of a renewed trade war added another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global outlook. This prompted investors to reduce exposure to riskier assets and seek stability in safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc.

USDJPY rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) supported JPY. In testimony to the Parliament earlier in the week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates further if inflation expectations align sustainably with the 2% target. Japanese rates remain among the lowest globally, and even a modest shift toward tightening in Japan—combined with rising global risks—could reinforce upward momentum in the yen. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful for the USDJPY. Traders should watch the critically important levels: resistance at 144.500 and support at 142.500.

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🔽 Euro falls after four straight sessions of gains

The euro slipped by 0.28% on Friday, ending a four-day streak of gains against the U.S. dollar (USD), as investors pivoted to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Despite the daily pullback, the euro remains on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, supported by the relative economic resilience of the eurozone and shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy fuelled demand for alternative currencies. U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his aggressive stance by threatening unilateral tariffs to gain leverage in ongoing trade negotiations. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled a more moderate approach, suggesting that the existing 90-day tariff moratorium could be extended. Trump's statements unsettled global markets, raising concerns about disruptions to international trade and weakening investor confidence in the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, recent U.S. consumer and producer inflation data came in below expectations, further weighing on the U.S. dollar. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement additional rate cuts this year. Softer inflation readings strengthened the case for monetary easing. As a result, the appeal of the U.S. dollar diminished as investors moved into other currencies, including the euro.

EURUSD declined during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so the pair is unlikely to break out of its current trend. Key levels to watch today are support at 1.14900 and resistance at 1.16326.

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📊 Gold reaches new all-time high

On Friday, gold prices (XAU) surged by 1.36% towards an all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The rally was fuelled by renewed safe-haven demand following reports of Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military leadership. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of intensified U.S. actions if no nuclear agreement is reached. This marked the third consecutive session of gains for the precious metal, underlining gold's traditional role as a hedge in times of geopolitical and economic turmoil.

Gold posted a robust 3.3% gain for the week, reflecting heightened investor anxiety and increased capital flows into safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. The momentum also reflects broader concerns about market volatility, persistent inflationary pressures, and shifting central bank policies. Analysts note that if geopolitical risks continue to mount or market participants begin pricing in looser monetary conditions, gold could see further growth in the near term, potentially attracting both institutional and retail inflows.

XAUUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. With no major data releases today, traders should focus on developments in the Middle East. 'Gold rose together with the U.S. dollar following the Israeli attack in a classic safe-haven move... Whether the attack was the spark that was needed to reignite gold and drive a fresh push towards and above USD $3,500 remains to be seen. However, together with central bank demand, fiscal debt concerns, and softening U.S. economic data pointing to rate cuts, it seems to be the path of least resistance', Saxo Bank analysts noted. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,500 and support at $3,400.

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