📊 Gold consolidates ahead of NFP report

The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.57% on Thursday following the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jobless Claims report.

👉 Possible effects for traders

A rise in U.S. jobless claims and a sharp drop in imports have heightened concerns about slowing economic growth, reinforcing investor uncertainty. The economic data point to weakening domestic demand and a softening labour market—conditions that usually lead to reduced consumer activity and lower business investment, weighing on GDP growth.

Meanwhile, gold prices edged lower as geopolitical tensions eased, following reports of constructive dialogue between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Sentiment improved on hopes that both sides might soon resume trade talks. However, traders remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook and market direction.

XAUUSD fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. The key event today is the NFP report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The market expects payrolls to increase by 130,000 in May, marking the smallest gain in three months and a decrease from April's 177,000. A stronger-than-expected NFP report may cause XAUUSD to retreat slightly, while weaker data could lift gold.

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📊 Euro strengthens as ECB hints at end of easing cycle

The euro (EUR) rose by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled it may soon conclude its easing cycle.

👉 Possible effects for traders

As expected, the ECB delivered its eighth consecutive rate cut on Thursday. However, policymakers adopt a more cautious tone, highlighting growing concerns about weakening economic momentum and rising global trade risks. The central bank also downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for the eurozone, citing the continued impact of the current trade war. Inflation is now expected to fall below the 2% target next year, weighed down by lower energy prices, a stronger euro, and sluggish economic growth. However, the ECB projects inflation will rebound and return to target levels the following year.

'The euro-dollar has taken off here in response to Lagarde saying the ECB is getting towards the end of its rate cutting cycle', commented Shaun Osborne, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. 'This just broadly reflects the softening in the broader dollar sentiment here and may well continue into nonfarm payrolls tomorrow'.

EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. The market expects the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC today, to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. 'Evidence of a cooling in labour markets is beginning to build, lowering expectations ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report and putting downward pressure on yields', said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.

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📊 Bitcoin falls after Musk–Trump clash

The Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped by 3.04% on Thursday following the exchange of accusations between U.S. President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Bitcoin, often considered a hedge against fiat instability, is now facing increased scepticism by institutional players amid political infighting and unpredictability. Trump's threats to revoke federal contracts from Tesla and SpaceX—both of which have indirect ties to the crypto market—amplified concerns about liquidity constraints and technological decoupling. The negative sentiment surrounding Tesla impacted BTC, particularly since the company holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

On 30 May, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded unprecedented outflows totalling over $430 million, ending a 31-day streak of consistent inflows. This marked a significant shift in institutional investor sentiment and contributed to a broader decline in Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings in early 2025. According to CoinShares, institutional exposure to Bitcoin dropped from $27.4 billion in Q4 2024 towards $21.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 23% decline. This pullback reflects growing caution due to persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, weakening risk appetite, and volatile regulatory dynamics surrounding crypto.

BTCUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Analysts forecast that U.S. payrolls will likely increase by 130,000 in May. A higher-than-expected figure may deepen Bitcoin's downward correction, while softer data could lift BTCUSD.

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📊 Better-than-expected NFP data weakens euro

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday following the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll (NFP) report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The data showed that 139,000 new jobs were added in May, exceeding the 125,000 forecast by economists. While the headline figure temporarily boosted the greenback, a downward revision to April's numbers moderated enthusiasm and highlighted the fragile momentum in the labour market. This data came against a backdrop of broader economic uncertainty, with investors assessing the impact of prolonged tariff negotiations and a potential slowdown in economic activity.

Despite Friday's losses, the euro remains on track for a modest weekly gain amid lingering concerns over stalled U.S.–China trade talks and geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment was further clouded by the lack of progress in a recent phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which weighed on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a public dispute between President Trump and Elon Musk added to market volatility.

EURUSD edged higher during Asian and early European trading sessions. The macroeconomic calendar is rather light today, so the established trend will likely continue. Low volatility may also prompt traders to take profits on long positions, potentially triggering a temporary sell-off in EURUSD.

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📊 JPY falls on weak domestic economic data

The Japanese yen (JPY) weakened towards 144,000 on Friday. The currency's recent decline extended as markets turned cautious ahead of Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The yen's weakness was further influenced by renewed hopes for progress in U.S.–China trade talks following a call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. However, the lack of tangible developments kept investor sentiment guarded.

Domestically, Japan's economic outlook faced headwinds after household spending unexpectedly declined in April, signalling that elevated prices continue to erode consumer demand. The disappointing data adds to the challenges the Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces as it assesses the appropriate timing for its next policy move. Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank's readiness to raise interest rates if inflation and economic conditions align, supporting the view that Japan remains on a path towards policy normalisation.

USDJPY fell during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful for USDJPY, so the short-term bullish trend may continue despite the resistance level at 144,200–145,000.

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📊 Gold falls following strong NFP report

The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.57% on Friday after U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in May.

👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. labour data released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected job growth, with payrolls rising by 139,000 in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While this figure marks a slight decline from April's revised 147,000, it exceeded the consensus forecasts of 125,000, signalling underlying resilience in employment despite growing economic headwinds. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, suggesting continued tightness in the labour market.

The NFP data surprised the market, especially after a significantly weaker ADP private payrolls report earlier in the week. The report showed a mere 37,000 new jobs in May—well below the expected 110,000. The divergence between government and private-sector data has added complexity to the macroeconomic outlook, prompting investors recalibrating expectations for potential Federal Reserve monetary policy moves in the coming months.

XAUUSD remained unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, but traders should watch for any developments in U.S. trade relations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,290 and resistance at $3,345.

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📊 Gold edges higher despite easing U.S.–China tensions

The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.46% on Monday despite a decline in safe-haven demand caused by easing U.S.–China trade tensions.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing boosted risk appetite, prompting market participants to shift away from traditional defensive assets like gold and government bonds. This change in sentiment followed the commencement of high-level negotiations in London. Officials from both countries met to stabilise a relationship strained not just by tariffs but also by strategic export controls on critical materials such as rare earth elements.

Statements from senior U.S. officials added to the optimism. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterised Monday's discussions as 'a good meeting', while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick labelled them fruitful. These comments signalled a constructive tone and strengthened investor expectations of meaningful progress toward de-escalation. As a result, equity markets responded positively, interpreting the dialogue as a step towards restoring policy certainty between the world's two largest economies.

XAUUSD declined during Asian and early European trading sessions after yesterday's rise. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful. Still, traders should monitor any developments in U.S. trade relations, which could impact market sentiment. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,290 and resistance at $3,345.

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