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📊 Gold consolidates ahead of NFP report

The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.57% on Thursday following the weaker-than-expected U.S. Jobless Claims report.

👉 Possible effects for traders

A rise in U.S. jobless claims and a sharp drop in imports have heightened concerns about slowing economic growth, reinforcing investor uncertainty. The economic data point to weakening domestic demand and a softening labour market—conditions that usually lead to reduced consumer activity and lower business investment, weighing on GDP growth.

Meanwhile, gold prices edged lower as geopolitical tensions eased, following reports of constructive dialogue between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Sentiment improved on hopes that both sides might soon resume trade talks. However, traders remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook and market direction.

XAUUSD fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. The key event today is the NFP report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The market expects payrolls to increase by 130,000 in May, marking the smallest gain in three months and a decrease from April's 177,000. A stronger-than-expected NFP report may cause XAUUSD to retreat slightly, while weaker data could lift gold.

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📊 Euro strengthens as ECB hints at end of easing cycle

The euro (EUR) rose by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) signalled it may soon conclude its easing cycle.

👉 Possible effects for traders

As expected, the ECB delivered its eighth consecutive rate cut on Thursday. However, policymakers adopt a more cautious tone, highlighting growing concerns about weakening economic momentum and rising global trade risks. The central bank also downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for the eurozone, citing the continued impact of the current trade war. Inflation is now expected to fall below the 2% target next year, weighed down by lower energy prices, a stronger euro, and sluggish economic growth. However, the ECB projects inflation will rebound and return to target levels the following year.

'The euro-dollar has taken off here in response to Lagarde saying the ECB is getting towards the end of its rate cutting cycle', commented Shaun Osborne, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. 'This just broadly reflects the softening in the broader dollar sentiment here and may well continue into nonfarm payrolls tomorrow'.

EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. The market expects the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC today, to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. 'Evidence of a cooling in labour markets is beginning to build, lowering expectations ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report and putting downward pressure on yields', said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.

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📊 Bitcoin falls after Musk–Trump clash

The Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped by 3.04% on Thursday following the exchange of accusations between U.S. President Donald Trump and entrepreneur Elon Musk.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Bitcoin, often considered a hedge against fiat instability, is now facing increased scepticism by institutional players amid political infighting and unpredictability. Trump's threats to revoke federal contracts from Tesla and SpaceX—both of which have indirect ties to the crypto market—amplified concerns about liquidity constraints and technological decoupling. The negative sentiment surrounding Tesla impacted BTC, particularly since the company holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

On 30 May, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded unprecedented outflows totalling over $430 million, ending a 31-day streak of consistent inflows. This marked a significant shift in institutional investor sentiment and contributed to a broader decline in Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings in early 2025. According to CoinShares, institutional exposure to Bitcoin dropped from $27.4 billion in Q4 2024 towards $21.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 23% decline. This pullback reflects growing caution due to persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, weakening risk appetite, and volatile regulatory dynamics surrounding crypto.

BTCUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Analysts forecast that U.S. payrolls will likely increase by 130,000 in May. A higher-than-expected figure may deepen Bitcoin's downward correction, while softer data could lift BTCUSD.

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