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📊 GBP rises as tariff worries resurface

The British pound (GBP) rose 0.66% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday, driven by rising U.S.–China trade tensions and new metal tariff announcements.

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump revealed plans to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% towards 50%. The announcement drew a swift backlash from Beijing, which vowed to retaliate with countermeasures. These developments increased investor concerns over global trade disruptions, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. It also put downward pressure on risk assets across sectors exposed to global manufacturing and commodities.

Meanwhile, growing optimism over the U.K. economy supported the British pound. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2025 gross domestic product growth forecast from 1.1% towards 1.2%, citing strong consumer demand and resilient investment. However, the IMF urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to uphold fiscal discipline ahead of the 11 June Spending Review. Inflationary pressures persist, with grocery prices climbing 4.1% year-on-year in May—the highest since early 2024—prompting consumers to shift to cheaper alternatives. In response, markets have scaled back expectations for rate cuts, pricing in just 40 basis points of easing from the Bank of England by year-end.

GBPUSD rose during the Asian session but fell during the early European trading session. U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data, due at 2:00 p.m. UTC today, may influence monetary policy expectations and trigger volatility in GBPUSD. Numbers exceeding the forecast may lower the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing GBPUSD down towards 1.34500. Lower-than-expected results will confirm a loosening U.S. labour market, lifting GBPUSD above 1.35600.

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📊 EURUSD rallies on escalating trade tensions

The euro (EUR) rose by 0.84% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) fell faster than we had anticipated in our year-ahead outlook, reaching our year-end target of 101.00 last month. We think that this weakening trend continues, and we now forecast the DXY to fall an additional 9% over the next 12 months to 91.000, with USD weakness most pronounced against its safe-haven peers—EUR, JPY, and CHF', Morgan Stanley analysts said in their mid-year outlook.

On Monday, China's Commerce Ministry dismissed the recent U.S. accusation of a breaking trade truce as groundless. Officials pledged strong but unspecified countermeasures to protect national interests—signalling a firm stance amid escalating tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm markets on Sunday, stating that a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was likely imminent. He expressed confidence that the dispute 'will be ironed out', offering a potential diplomatic path to de-escalation.

EURUSD fell during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's market focus is the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, pushing EURUSD below 1.13500. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may weaken the U.S. dollar and lift EURUSD above 1.14500.

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📊 Gold prices start new rally

The gold price (XAU) surged by 2.5% on Monday, climbing above $3,370 and reaching its highest level in over three weeks. The surge was driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar (USD) declined by 0.7%, enhancing the metal's appeal for international buyers and adding momentum to the upward move. With markets already on edge, gold's traditional role as a hedge against volatility and currency weakness returned to focus. Strong risk-off sentiment lifted XAUUSD higher, fuelling bullish momentum.

Investor concerns intensified following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a tariff hike on steel and aluminium imports, doubling existing rates towards 50%, starting 4 June. The tariff threat reignited fears of a broader trade war, especially after Trump accused China of violating a recent truce—an allegation Beijing quickly denied. The escalating conflict between the world's two largest economies deepened uncertainty around global trade policy. As a result, investors sought safety, boosting demand for gold as a hedge against rising uncertainty.

XAUUSD fell during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The data may affect investors' interest rate expectations and trigger volatility in XAUUSD. Higher-than-expected figures may lower the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially pushing XAUUSD below $3,340. Conversely, weaker data would confirm that the U.S. labour market is loosening, increasing the probability of a rate cut later this year and pushing XAUUSD above $3,400.

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📊 Australian dollar strengthens despite weak GDP

The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.51% on Tuesday as a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) helped offset disappointing domestic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Australia's economy expanded by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the slowest growth in three quarters and falling short of the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.3%, below the expected 1.5%. Weaker-than-expected figures strengthened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Futures pricing now indicates an 80% probability of an additional rate cut at the July meeting.

Adding to market uncertainty, U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on steel and aluminium officially take effect on 4 June, exacerbating tensions with key trading partners. Relations between Washington and Beijing remain fragile, with both sides accusing each other of breaching the terms of their recent trade agreement. Investors are now closely watching for a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, which could lead to either a diplomatic resolution or a further escalation.

AUDUSD fell during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the main focus is on two U.S. macroeconomic reports: ADP Employment at 12:15 p.m. UTC and ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number will pressure AUDUSD lower, while softer data may support the pair.

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📊 Softer-than-expected inflation data pressures euro

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.64% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday after eurozone inflation came in slightly below expectations.

👉 Possible effects for traders

A report showed that eurozone consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-over-year in May, falling just under the 2% market forecast. Weaker-than-expected data heightened expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut later this week. With inflation now below the ECB's target and signs of a cooling economy, markets view this move as a final cut before the central bank pauses its easing cycle to reassess incoming economic data.

At the global level, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised its global economic outlook, projecting GDP growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 towards 2.9% in 2025 and 2026. The downgrade reflects growing concerns over escalating trade tensions, which the OECD warns could further undermine business investment, distort supply chains, and fuel inflationary pressures. All these challenges may complicate the path forward for both monetary and fiscal policymakers worldwide.

EURUSD remained unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. macroeconomic reports: ADP Employment at 12:15 p.m. UTC and ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected figures may provoke a downward correction in EURUSD. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results may lift the pair towards 1.14500.

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📊 Gold pulls back as U.S. dollar strengthens

The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.83% on Tuesday, retreating from a nearly four-week high as the U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'It's hard to know what's really driving things today', said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. 'There seems to be a little bit more comfort that the economy is not going into recession, and there might be a bit of front-running here in the sense we have a jobs report that’s going to be coming out, and investors want to get on the right side of that before it’s released'.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) sharply downgraded its global growth outlook, warning that the world economy is likely to slow more deeply than previously expected. The OECD cited escalating protectionist policies—particularly the ongoing U.S.–China trade war—as key risks. It noted that rising tariffs are fuelling inflationary pressures, disrupting global supply chains, and undermining business confidence. The organisation emphasised that if trade tensions continue to escalate, the global economy could slow down further heading into 2026.

XAUUSD rose during the Asian session but lost most of its gains during the early European trading hours. Markets now turn their attention to the ADP U.S. Employment Report, due at 12:15 p.m. UTC today. As a widely watched proxy for nonfarm payroll data, the release may trigger volatility across all USD-related pairs.

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📊 Japanese yen rises as investors flee from U.S. dollar

The Japanese yen (JPY) held steady at around 142.900 on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) following disappointing U.S. economic data.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Signs of a sharp slowdown in private-sector hiring and an unexpected contraction in the U.S. services sector have heightened fears that trade policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on broader economic activity. Weak U.S. data fuelled risk-off sentiment, boosting demand for the yen—a traditional safe-haven asset during periods of global uncertainty.

Domestically, Japan’s economic outlook remains fragile. April marked the fourth consecutive month of real wage declines as inflation outpaced income growth. This persistent erosion in household purchasing power raises concerns about domestic demand and complicates the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) path to policy normalisation. Still, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates if inflation and economic projections are met, indicating a cautious but deliberate shift toward tightening amid a challenging global backdrop.

USDJPY edged higher during Asian and early European trading sessions. In addition to tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. USDJPY traders should watch the critically important levels: resistance at 144.500 and support at 142.500.

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📊 Disappointing U.S. economic indicators supported euro

The euro (EUR) gained 0.42% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday following weak U.S. economic reports.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The ADP Employment report surprised to the downside, showing just 37,000 private-sector jobs added in May—the lowest in over two years. The report raised concerns about slowing momentum in the U.S. labour market. At the same time, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index data revealed a contraction in May for the first time in nearly a year. The contraction was driven by a sharp pullback in new business and rising input costs, which U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariff hikes may have exacerbated.

These developments have intensified speculation about potential monetary policy easing, aligning with Trump's ongoing calls for rate cuts. However, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have so far maintained a cautious tone, citing ongoing trade and inflation risks. Markets are now focused on weekly Jobless Claims and nonfarm payrolls reports, which could be pivotal in shaping the U.S. monetary policy.

EURUSD remained relatively flat during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC may provide fresh insight into labour market conditions, possibly altering Fed monetary policy expectations. Traders should also monitor any tariff-related news and developments around trade negotiations. Key EURUSD levels: support at 1.13600 and resistance at 1.14400.

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