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📊 BTCUSD sets record high near $112,000

Bitcoin (BTC) strengthened, reaching a record high of nearly $112,000 on Thursday, driven by global liquidity flows.

👉Possible effects for traders

A key driver for the rise is the resurgence in global liquidity, with global M2, which includes the money supply from the U.S., eurozone, China, and Japan, rebounding by approximately 3–4% year-to-date. Historically, Bitcoin and other risk assets tend to respond to such shifts with a time lag of about three months, and the timing of the current crypto rally closely aligns with this historical pattern. This resurgence in liquidity is reinforcing risk-on sentiment across financial markets.

However, the macroeconomic signals remain mixed. U.S. labour data indicated a resilient job market, with initial jobless claims beating expectations at 227,000, although elevated continuing claims point to some underlying softness. 'Initial Jobless Claims came in cooler than expected. Continuing Claims came in hotter than expected', Blacknox, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote on X. 'BTC is in price discovery, and the market wants to celebrate the good news and ignore the bad news'.

BTCUSD consolidated during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits U.S. New Home Sales data at 2:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading may trigger a bearish correction in Bitcoin, while softer data may support the bullish trend in BTCUSD.

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📊 Euro rebounds on rising uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy

The euro (EUR) lost 0.46% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday.

👉Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump's newly proposed budget bill—featuring sweeping tax cuts and a ramp-up in defence spending—has intensified investor concerns over the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill could add nearly $4 trillion to the national debt, exacerbating fears of persistent fiscal imbalances.

These anxieties were further magnified by Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1. Moody's cited surging deficits and a growing debt-servicing burden as critical risks to the nation's financial credibility.
At the same time, limited progress in trade negotiations prompted a shift in capital flows away from U.S. assets and put pressure on the U.S. dollar. This erosion in sentiment underscores the broader investor unease surrounding Washington's fiscal trajectory and geopolitical positioning. Nonetheless, China's Foreign Ministry reported that high-level talks between Beijing and Washington remain ongoing. This effort aims to preserve communication channels following a recent call between Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and U.S. Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell.

EURUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market will get more clues on the state of the U.S. economy from the latest New Home Sales data at 2:30 p.m. UTC. Better-than-expected results will likely trigger a sell-off in EURUSD, potentially pushing the pair towards a weekly low. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may pull EURUSD above the 1.13660 level.

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📊 Gold recovers after Thursday's correction

The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.61% on Thursday. 'This pullback is primarily attributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar (USD), driven by a series of favourable economic data reaffirming the American economy's robustness', says Antonio Di Giacomo, Market Analyst Latam at XS.com in a note.

👉Possible effects for traders

Investor sentiment remains cautious amid persistent concerns over the trajectory of the U.S. budget deficit, which continues to support demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed U.S. President Donald Trump's highly publicised tax reform—dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill'—paving the way for Senate deliberations. However, rather than generating market optimism, the legislation has heightened fiscal anxiety. The bill is now widely expected to expand the deficit by several trillion dollars over the coming years. A lack of progress on meaningful trade agreements has further dampened investor optimism.

According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the proposed tax plan could add nearly $4 trillion to the federal deficit, reinforcing fears of long-term fiscal instability. This outlook has deepened scepticism among global investors regarding the sustainability of the U.S. economy and contributed to growing risk aversion in financial markets. As a result, demand continues to shift towards traditionally defensive instruments, with gold renewing its bullish trend in the face of budgetary uncertainty and policy gridlock.

Gold climbed back above $3,300 during the Asian trading session after yesterday's significant drop. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, due at 2:30 p.m. UTC. The data could increase volatility in the market, especially in USD pairs. If the figures exceed market expectations, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, weighing down on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could support XAUUSD by boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

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The earnings season isn't over until AI-giant NVIDIA has reported its quarterly results. NVIDIA stock has rebounded sharply lately amid Trump's softer stance on chip exports and the de-escalation in the trade war. If all this is backed up by an upbeat earnings guidance, the stock could extend its winning streak. Software company, Salesforce, and retailers, Macy's and Kohl's will also be in the spotlight.

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