📊 Gold rockets on heightened geopolitical uncertainty

The gold (XAU) price rose by 1.86% on Tuesday, supported by rising geopolitical risks and a weakening U.S. dollar (USD).

👉Possible effects for traders

Market anxiety intensified following reports that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear sites, a move that could significantly escalate tensions in the Middle East. Adding to global unease, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine would begin ceasefire negotiations but appeared to distance himself from mediating the conflict directly. New sanctions imposed by the EU and U.K. against Russia also added to the already tense geopolitical environment, driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious outlook and Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Investor sentiment has been rattled by uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies and an upcoming key vote on President Trump's sweeping tax reforms. The weakness in the U.S. dollar has made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, as the metal becomes cheaper in other currencies. This combination of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds reinforces gold's appeal as a protective asset in turbulent times.

XAUUSD continued rising during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors should closely monitor the ongoing G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada, wary that U.S. officials may signal a preference for a weaker U.S. dollar. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are the support level at $3,260 and the resistance level at $3,340.

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📊 USDJPY reached 143.000

The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened, with USDJPY reaching nearly 143.000 on Thursday. This marks USDJPY's lowest level in over two weeks, as growing concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory pressured the U.S. dollar (USD).

👉Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment turned risk-averse amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts—estimated to increase the national debt by over $3 trillion—could erode investor confidence in U.S. financial assets and fuel market volatility. These anxieties drove demand for safe-haven currencies higher, boosting the Japanese yen (JPY) appeal.

On the policy front, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato confirmed that exchange rate issues weren't discussed with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during recent G7 meetings. This statement counters speculation about coordinated intervention. Domestically, Japan's economic indicators painted a mixed picture: core machinery orders surged by 13% in March—well above expectations and signalling strong capital investment—while May Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data showed ongoing weakness in manufacturing and a slowdown in the services sector growth, highlighting uneven momentum in the broader economy.

USDJPY continued to fall for the eighth consecutive day during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, apart from tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI report at 1:45 p.m. UTC. It may shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering investors' rate-cut expectations and triggering volatility across USD currency pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 144.500 and support at 143.200

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📊 Euro rises amid growing concerns over U.S. fiscal plans

The euro (EUR) gained 0.41% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday due to concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's fiscal policy.

👉Possible effects for traders

The U.S. dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday as investor confidence faltered amid concerns surrounding the Trump administration's proposed tax cut and spending plans. Political divisions within the Republican Party continue to hinder progress, with fiscal conservatives criticising the bill for not including deeper spending cuts. President Trump's meeting with House Republicans on Tuesday failed to unify support, intensifying market doubts over the administration's fiscal direction.

Further pressuring the U.S. dollar was a disappointing 20-year Treasury bond auction, in which $16 billion in bonds sold at a yield of 5.047%—a record high, above market expectations. The weak demand suggests that investors are increasingly reluctant to hold U.S. government debt, reinforcing a broader aversion to U.S. assets.

EURUSD remained relatively flat during Asian and early European trading sessions. The U.S. Jobless Claims and S&P Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) reports will be released today at 12:30 p.m. and 1:45 p.m. UTC, respectively. Higher-than-expected Jobless Claims figures could be bullish for the euro, while weaker-than-expected data could exert downward pressure on EURUSD. Similarly, lower-than-anticipated U.S. PMI data may support the pair, while stronger readings will likely provoke a downward correction and push the euro down towards the 1.13000 level.

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📊 Gold rises on demand for safe-haven assets

The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.77% on Wednesday amid growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook.

👉Possible effects for traders

Investor risk appetite diminished after a proposed U.S. federal budget was released, revealing a potential expansion of the already substantial fiscal deficit. This concern was intensified by Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit outlook. The agency explained the downgrade, citing escalating debt levels and growing macroeconomic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious tone regarding the U.S. economic outlook also added to investor unease, prompting a shift toward defensive assets.

At the same time, geopolitical instability—particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and U.S. President Donald Trump's retreat from involvement in the Russia–Ukraine situation—further boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data revealed that gold imports soared towards an 11-month high of 127.5 metric tonnes in April, a 73% increase from March. This spike was fuelled by heightened domestic demand and expanded import quotas issued by the People's Bank of China amid escalating U.S.–China trade tensions.

XAUUSD continued to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC will shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering Fed monetary policy expectations. Moreover, traders should monitor news related to trade tariffs and developments in negotiations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are the support level at $3,260 and the resistance level at $3,340.

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📊 BTCUSD sets record high near $112,000

Bitcoin (BTC) strengthened, reaching a record high of nearly $112,000 on Thursday, driven by global liquidity flows.

👉Possible effects for traders

A key driver for the rise is the resurgence in global liquidity, with global M2, which includes the money supply from the U.S., eurozone, China, and Japan, rebounding by approximately 3–4% year-to-date. Historically, Bitcoin and other risk assets tend to respond to such shifts with a time lag of about three months, and the timing of the current crypto rally closely aligns with this historical pattern. This resurgence in liquidity is reinforcing risk-on sentiment across financial markets.

However, the macroeconomic signals remain mixed. U.S. labour data indicated a resilient job market, with initial jobless claims beating expectations at 227,000, although elevated continuing claims point to some underlying softness. 'Initial Jobless Claims came in cooler than expected. Continuing Claims came in hotter than expected', Blacknox, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote on X. 'BTC is in price discovery, and the market wants to celebrate the good news and ignore the bad news'.

BTCUSD consolidated during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits U.S. New Home Sales data at 2:30 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading may trigger a bearish correction in Bitcoin, while softer data may support the bullish trend in BTCUSD.

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📊 Euro rebounds on rising uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy

The euro (EUR) lost 0.46% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday.

👉Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump's newly proposed budget bill—featuring sweeping tax cuts and a ramp-up in defence spending—has intensified investor concerns over the long-term sustainability of U.S. public finances. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill could add nearly $4 trillion to the national debt, exacerbating fears of persistent fiscal imbalances.

These anxieties were further magnified by Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1. Moody's cited surging deficits and a growing debt-servicing burden as critical risks to the nation's financial credibility.
At the same time, limited progress in trade negotiations prompted a shift in capital flows away from U.S. assets and put pressure on the U.S. dollar. This erosion in sentiment underscores the broader investor unease surrounding Washington's fiscal trajectory and geopolitical positioning. Nonetheless, China's Foreign Ministry reported that high-level talks between Beijing and Washington remain ongoing. This effort aims to preserve communication channels following a recent call between Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu and U.S. Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell.

EURUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market will get more clues on the state of the U.S. economy from the latest New Home Sales data at 2:30 p.m. UTC. Better-than-expected results will likely trigger a sell-off in EURUSD, potentially pushing the pair towards a weekly low. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may pull EURUSD above the 1.13660 level.

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📊 Gold recovers after Thursday's correction

The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.61% on Thursday. 'This pullback is primarily attributed to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar (USD), driven by a series of favourable economic data reaffirming the American economy's robustness', says Antonio Di Giacomo, Market Analyst Latam at XS.com in a note.

👉Possible effects for traders

Investor sentiment remains cautious amid persistent concerns over the trajectory of the U.S. budget deficit, which continues to support demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed U.S. President Donald Trump's highly publicised tax reform—dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill'—paving the way for Senate deliberations. However, rather than generating market optimism, the legislation has heightened fiscal anxiety. The bill is now widely expected to expand the deficit by several trillion dollars over the coming years. A lack of progress on meaningful trade agreements has further dampened investor optimism.

According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the proposed tax plan could add nearly $4 trillion to the federal deficit, reinforcing fears of long-term fiscal instability. This outlook has deepened scepticism among global investors regarding the sustainability of the U.S. economy and contributed to growing risk aversion in financial markets. As a result, demand continues to shift towards traditionally defensive instruments, with gold renewing its bullish trend in the face of budgetary uncertainty and policy gridlock.

Gold climbed back above $3,300 during the Asian trading session after yesterday's significant drop. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. Existing Home Sales report, due at 2:30 p.m. UTC. The data could increase volatility in the market, especially in USD pairs. If the figures exceed market expectations, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, weighing down on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could support XAUUSD by boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

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