📊 BTC consolidates ahead of the next big move

Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday and moved near $104,000 on the expectation of decisions regarding the U.S. interest rate and tariffs policy.Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Thursday and moved near $104,000 on the expectation of decisions regarding the U.S. interest rate and tariffs policy.

👉Possible effects for traders

Softer readings across key U.S. economic indicators—including inflation and consumer spending—have led investors to price in a more dovish policy trajectory. This shift reflects growing concerns that economic momentum is losing steam, prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to maintain higher rates without risking a deeper slowdown.

'I have a suspicion that this is not just about tariffs, I have a suspicion that there's an underlying tone of weakness in the U.S. consumer', said Thierry Wizman, Global FX and Rates Strategist at Macquarie. 'It is the tariffs, but it's also the underlying weakness among U.S. consumers at this point, and Q2 will be a weak quarter for growth, given that we came into it with poor sentiment and a lot of uncertainty around policy. And it has not been completely resolved yet, despite what we did with China last weekend'.

BTCUSD rose slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility, as it could shed light on potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Key levels to watch are support at $101,400 and resistance at $105,000.

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📊 Euro benefits from weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data

On Thursday, the euro (EUR) gained 0.10% against the U.S. dollar (USD), after downside surprises in U.S. economic data have reinforced market expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.

👉Possible effects for traders

In a speech on Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that policymakers are re-evaluating their approach to balancing the dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Powell emphasised the need to reconsider the underlying assumptions guiding monetary policy, particularly in light of recent inflation dynamics and labour market trends. His remarks suggest a potential pivot in strategy, aligning with expectations that further easing may be necessary to support the economy.

'Chair Powell said that the FOMC will be placing more weight on the inflation outlook than on employment when setting monetary policy following a monetary policy framework review. This suggests a potentially higher hurdle to Fed cuts if inflation risks remain to the upside', said Kristina Clifton, Senior Currency Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 'We forecast three FOMC interest rate cuts this year. But the risks lie towards fewer cuts if inflation picks up'.

EURUSD rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, euro traders should focus on developments in global trade tariffs and the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, the U.S. Retail Sales report, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC, may add volatility to all USD pairs. Higher-than-expected figures may push EURUSD down towards 1.11660. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may lift the pair back towards 1.12680.

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📊 Weak U.S. economic statistics support gold

Gold (XAU) gained 1.97% on Thursday as the U.S. dollar (USD) weakened after the release of April inflation data, which signalled a potential shift in monetary expectations.

👉Possible effects for traders

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in March, aligning with analyst expectations. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 3.1%, easing from 4% but slightly exceeding the forecast of 3%. This slowdown in wholesale prices suggests easing inflationary pressures at the production level, which could influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy stance.

Adding to the softening economic signals, U.S. retail sales for April grew by just 0.1% month-on-month—a sharp slowdown from the robust 1.7% increase in March—below the expected 0.15%. This decline in consumer spending, alongside cooling producer prices, reinforces speculation that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach to future rate hikes or consider easing policy if the trend persists. These developments contributed to the downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

XAUUSD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the University of Michigan (UoM) will release a preliminary report on U.S. Consumer Sentiment at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures might increase the likelihood of more rate cuts by the Fed later this year, pushing XAUUSD higher. Conversely, higher-than-expected results may temporarily pause the rally in gold.

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📊 Australian dollar weakens after RBA decision

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose by 0.84% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday after increased safe-haven demand for the Aussie after U.S. President Donald Trump called for an interest rate cut supported the rise.

👉Possible effects for traders

"The market is still very wary of the lack of austerity coming from the fiscal side in the U.S." said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank. "We think that is potentially a driver for dollar weakness over the coming quarters as the market is likely to demand a higher premium to lend money to the U.S.," he added.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest move largely priced in, market focus has shifted to the central bank’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Bullock’s commentary for clearer signals on the future trajectory of interest rates, especially as recent Australian data has cast doubt on expectations for further cuts this year. Adding to the uncertainty, political instability weighed on the Australian dollar after National Party leader David Littleproud declared the end of the coalition with the Liberals, signaling a more fragmented opposition as Labor secured a stronger mandate following the coalition's collapse.

AUDUSD fell during Asian and early European trading sessions following the RBA's decision. Traders should now monitor upcoming speeches from RBA officials. Key technical levels to watch are resistance at 0.65100 and support at 0.63600.

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📊 Waning confidence in U.S. exceptionalism has sent the dollar tumbling.

The euro (EUR) won 0.69% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday.

👉Possible effects for traders

The U.S. dollar came under renewed selling pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the country’s sovereign credit rating by one notch—marking the third major agency to take such action after Fitch’s downgrade in 2023 and S&P’s in 2011. The move has reignited concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and its long-term creditworthiness. George Vessey, lead currency and macroeconomic strategist at Convera, noted that "there’s a lot of scope for further downgrades, purely from a valuation perspective," suggesting that a broad "sell America" sentiment may resurface among global investors.

Adding to the market's caution, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed on Sunday that President Donald Trump stands ready to reimpose the higher tariff rates threatened last month if key trading partners fail to engage in negotiations "in good faith." This assertive stance on trade policy is likely to amplify geopolitical risk and investor unease, potentially fueling further outflows from dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the combination of sovereign credit concerns and renewed trade uncertainty is reshaping short-term sentiment toward the U.S. economy and its currency.

EURUSD continues to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. EURUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the Consumer Confidence report, which will be released on 2:00 p.m. UTC. In addition, traders should monitor developments concerning global trade tariffs and Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.Key levels to watch are support at 1.11000 and resistance at 1.13000.

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📊 Gold Gains on weakening U.S. Dollar

The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.83% on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warning about potential tariff hikes.

👉Possible effects for traders

Bessent indicated that if countries fail to negotiate "in good faith," tariff rates would revert to the harsher levels announced on April 2. This rhetoric has reintroduced uncertainty into markets that had briefly embraced optimism, increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has intensified investor concerns about the country's fiscal trajectory. The downgrade, viewed as a reflection of mounting structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, has reinforced a broader risk-off mood across global markets. As Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya notes, the fragile optimism seen in previous sessions may prove short-lived, prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional hedges like precious metals.

XAUUSD fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors should closely monitor potential shifts in U.S. trade policy and the Russia–Ukraine peace talks. These developments could significantly impact the market. In addition, the eurozone's Consumer Confidence report, due at 2:00 p.m. UTC, may trigger some volatility. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support level at $3,160 and resistance level at $3,250.

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