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📊 USDJPY tries to renew highs amid U.S.–China trade talks

USDJPY hit a four-week high of 146.189 but failed to hold its gains, declining by 0.25% on Monday.

👉Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment improved after officials from the U.S. and China highlighted tangible progress in negotiations. U.S. representatives emphasised steps toward narrowing the trade deficit, while Chinese authorities referred to the discussions as reached an 'important consensus'. Despite this progress, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that existing 10% tariffs on other nations would likely remain. Attention is now shifting to U.S.–Japan trade discussions, with Tokyo targeting a finalised agreement by June.

Domestically, Japan reported a current account surplus of ¥3.45 trillion in March, moderating slightly from a record ¥4.06 trillion surplus in February. While the strong external balance underscores the country's resilient export performance, this has done little to support the Japanese yen (JPY) amid the prevailing risk-on sentiment. Investors appear more focused on global trade developments and interest rate differentials, which continue to drive the currency lower.

USDJPY moved sideways during the Asian and early European hours. Two key economic releases this week could impact the pair. First is the U.S. Inflation Rate report, due at 3:30 p.m. UTC tomorrow. Stronger-than-expected figures may trigger a correction in USDJPY, while weaker data could support the pair. Second is the Japan's Gross Domestic Product report, which will come out on Thursday at 11:50 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number could push USDJPY to new highs, while softer data could trigger a downward correction. Key levels to watch for USDJPY are support at 145.000 and resistance at 146.200.

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📊 Euro hits new lows

On Friday, the euro (EUR) rose by 0.19% on prospects of a trade deal.

👉Possible effects for traders

The U.S. dollar (USD) faced sustained downward pressure in recent weeks due to U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. However, the dollar stabilised last week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it doesn't plan further rate cuts in the near term. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming April's consumer price data for signs of tariff-driven inflation. Meanwhile, flat retail sales are anticipated in April, following a surge in March, hinting potential signals of trade-related headwinds in the broader economy.

'What we seem to have here, then, is a broad framework under which the two nations can conduct further talks, with the aim of reaching a broader trade agreement,' said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone. 'Not the worst-case outcome that was possible from this weekend's talks, far from it, but not a concrete deal either', he added. 'Does this progress allow for any tariffs to be paused, reduced, or rolled back, and if so, for how long?'

EURUSD declined slightly in the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is rather light, so volatility will likely remain low. Technically, EURUSD will probably remain under bearish pressure as long as the price remains below the key 1.13000 level.

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📊 Gold slides on U.S.–China trade talks

Gold (XAU) declined by over 3% on Monday, falling below $3,280 towards a one-week low.

👉Possible effects for traders

Market appetite for safe-haven assets weakened amid renewed optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade relations. Over the weekend, officials from both sides concluded preliminary discussions and gave positive signals. Beijing announced its intention to begin formal negotiations, while the U.S. emphasised tangible progress towards a potential trade agreement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that details on negotiations would be disclosed in a briefing later on Monday. The developments eased investor concerns and exerted downward pressure on gold.

On the geopolitical front, the India–Pakistan ceasefire agreement held steady overnight into Sunday, despite early accusations of violations by both sides. The lack of immediate escalation further reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, reinforcing the broader sell-off in precious metals at the beginning of the trading week.

Today, the economic calendar is relatively uneventful, but traders should monitor any developments in U.S. trade tariffs. 'There's strong optimism across the market of progress in U.S.–China trade talks in particular and more broadly more trade deals', said Matthew Weller, head of market research at StoneX. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,195 and resistance at $3,360.

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