📊 Gold declines after India strikes Pakistan

Gold (XAU) rose by 2.92% on Tuesday, continuing Monday's rise.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The rise comes 'on demand from China, the world's biggest bullion buyer. While the U.S. dollar (USD) trades softer to support. Monday's near 3% surge continues to underpin gold's status as a safe haven', Saxo Bank analysts noted. However, after India's attack on Pakistan, the rise changed with a decline overnight.

'Historically, during 1965, 1971, and the Kargil War, we saw that gold prices didn't move much. Gold is more driven by developments in the Middle East and U.S. and China-related activities. This event (Operation Sindoor) is largely neutral for gold', said Tarun Satsangi, Associate Director-Research at Univest. The global factors will continue to have a higher impact on gold prices. 'Slowing world economy and trade war between China and the U.S. are driving the gold prices globally', he added.

XAUUSD fell by 1.38% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should expect heightened volatility due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC and the following press conference at 6:30 p.m. UTC. These events could spark additional movement in XAUUSD, especially if there are hints of further monetary easing. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,450 and support at $3,200.

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📊 GBP remains near its three-year high

GBPUSD fell by 0.6% on Wednesday, continuing to consolidate ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The BoE is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) towards 4.25% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut. Monetary easing is anticipated due to mounting concerns over slowing economic growth because of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Investors will scrutinise the meeting—the first since the tariffs were introduced—for any changes in the bank's tone or economic projections. Additionally, U.K. inflation eased more than expected in March, dropping from 2.8% to 2.6%, supporting the case for the rate reduction.

'We take a slightly more cautious view', said Shaan Raithatha, senior economist at Vanguard. 'Though we acknowledge the inflation outlook is softening, there are some near-term risks', he added, before mentioning improving growth prospects, higher utility prices, and tentative evidence that the rise in national insurance contributions and a national living wage is 'starting to feed through to final prices'.

GBPUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The BoE will announce its rate decision today at 11:00 a.m. UTC. Traders should also monitor the Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, and the votes of the Monetary Policy Committee. The regulator may deliver a so-called 'hawkish cut', meaning they will cut the rate but project fewer rate reductions in the future. In this case, GBPUSD may rally slightly. Conversely, if the BoE sounds explicitly dovish, the pair will likely drop towards 1.32500.

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📊 Euro weakens after the Fed interest rate decision

On Wednesday, the euro (EUR) fell broadly by 0.59%, after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'They were a little more hawkish than a lot of the market expected, and they didn't really change or water down any of the views on inflation being above average or the jobs market selling at a low level', said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street. 'I still think we're in an extended hold period until data tells them that they need to do something and/or we get a lot more trade clarity,' Loh added.

The U.S. dollar (USD) remains steady against the euro today. The currency is holding on to its gains after its strongest rise in two weeks following the Fed's comments about growing economic risks from rising inflation and unemployment. The expectation of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing further supports the greenback. Investors await Saturday's U.S. and China meeting about trade tariffs in Switzerland, hoping the countries will progress in regulating trade relationships.

EURUSD remained above the important 50-day moving average. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00 a.m. UTC. The announcement may add some volatility to EUR pairs. In addition, the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may cause volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch for EURUSD are support at 1.12700 and resistance at 1.13800.

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📊 Gold climbs higher after decline

Gold (XAU) fell by 1.95% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the funds rate at 4.25–4.5% for a third consecutive meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Trump declared he wouldn't lower 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to advance trade talks. This comment cast doubt over potential progress at an upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland. As a result, the lack of optimism about a trade deal strengthened gold's status as a safe-haven asset.

At the same time, the Fed's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged put downward pressure on gold, which offers no yield. The Fed also expressed growing concerns about rising inflation and unemployment, maintaining a cautious stance on future monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the central bank isn't considering a preemptive rate cut in response to any economic fallout from the ongoing tariff tensions, further influencing investor expectations.

XAUUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its base rate at 11:00 a.m. UTC, which may trigger market volatility. In addition, the U.S. Jobless Claims report will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures could pause the rally in XAUUSD, though any setback is likely to be short-lived. Conversely, higher-than-expected numbers may push XAUUSD higher towards $3,083.

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📊 Gold fell as trade tensions eased

Gold (XAU) fell by 1.74% on Thursday after the announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K.

👉Possible effects for traders

The announcement of the trade agreement gave some relief to global markets and eased investor concerns over escalating trade tensions. This development contributed to a more optimistic sentiment, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, which typically benefits from geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations. Also, the central bank issued a cautionary note regarding rising inflationary pressures and weakening labour market conditions. This reinforces the Fed's measured and data-driven approach to future monetary policy decisions.

In his remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the central bank isn't considering pre-emptive rate cuts to counter potential economic risks from ongoing tariff disputes. His comments underscored the Fed's commitment to balancing inflation control with support for economic growth without overreacting to near-term volatility. While gold prices faced downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand and steady interest rates, the metal has retained modest support. XAUUSD remains on track for a weekly gain, reflecting lingering investor caution in a complex macroeconomic environment.

XAUUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, but traders should monitor any developments in U.S. trade relations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,195 and resistance at $3,435.

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📊 Euro hits four-week low

On Thursday, the euro (EUR) fell by 0.65% due to the growth of the U.S. dollar (USD). A trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. and the Federal Reserve (Fed) statements that it doesn't plan to cut rates anytime soon supported USD.

👉Possible effects for traders

'The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable', said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients. 'Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade détente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared', he said. 'For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if U.S. and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above 19 January levels'.

EURUSD remained essentially flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although the official macroeconomic calendar is uneventful, traders should monitor any tariff-related news and negotiations, particularly with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.13820 and support at 1.11890.

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📊 Bitcoin hits $100,000 for the first time in 3 months

Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by more than 6% against a backdrop of risk mitigation driven by concerns about the long-term economic impact of global tariffs.

👉Possible effects for traders

'If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from U.S. assets, Bitcoin could find its next leg higher', Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note. 'We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in bitcoin in the coming months', Kendrick said, noting he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in Q2 of 2025.

BTCUSD traded sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. No major news is expected today that could significantly influence price dynamics. Analysts project the price to continue moving within the established trend.

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