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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,393.00.

Set your stop loss at 3,414.00 above the previous high ($21.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,372.00 ($21.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Forex Signal 💥 ✔️

📊USDJPY declines for the third consecutive session

On Monday, the Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.44% against the U.S. dollar (USD) but failed to hold above the critically important 0.65000 level.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Traders closely monitored developments in U.S.-Japan trade talks as Tokyo aimed to finalise a bilateral agreement by June. On the economic side, Japan's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for April was revised upward, showing the strongest rise in new orders in nearly a year.

Also, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% last week and revised its growth and inflation forecasts downwards. This signalled a dovish regulator's stance and suggested that additional rate hikes are unlikely in the near future. Despite this, markets continue to expect potential tightening later this year if economic data remains strong. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's next steps continues to support the case for the Japanese yen (JPY) strengthing in the broader macro environment.

USDJPY rose by 0.44% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision will be released at 6:00 p.m. UTC, potentially triggering volatility in the market. Key levels to watch are resistance at 144.000 and support at 142.350.

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📊 Mertz's election at the second attempt supported the euro

On Tuesday, the euro (EUR) rose broadly by 0.47% after Germany's parliament elected conservative leader Friedrich Merz a Chancellor. In turn, the U.S. dollar was pressured by fears that the trade deals with the U.S. wouldn't be realised.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The market is getting nervous that we're starting to eat away at the schedule since the 90-day tariff reprieve without anything meaningful being announced', said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp. 'There's a lot of good sentiment, but because of a distinct lack of formal substance that I've seen, I think the market is starting to get uneasy again'.

Today's key event is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Interest Rate Decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC. Together with the decision will come out the so-called 'dot plot'—an interest rate forecast by FOMC members published four times a year. The market will likely consider a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut bearish for EURUSD, but this reduction has been priced in well in advance. If the Fed delivers a hawkish 50-bps rate cut while downplaying the likelihood of future reductions, EURUSD may move sideways. A large 50-bps cut and dovish FOMC projections will almost certainly pull EURUSD above the 1.16000 level.

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📊 Gold declines after India strikes Pakistan

Gold (XAU) rose by 2.92% on Tuesday, continuing Monday's rise.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The rise comes 'on demand from China, the world's biggest bullion buyer. While the U.S. dollar (USD) trades softer to support. Monday's near 3% surge continues to underpin gold's status as a safe haven', Saxo Bank analysts noted. However, after India's attack on Pakistan, the rise changed with a decline overnight.

'Historically, during 1965, 1971, and the Kargil War, we saw that gold prices didn't move much. Gold is more driven by developments in the Middle East and U.S. and China-related activities. This event (Operation Sindoor) is largely neutral for gold', said Tarun Satsangi, Associate Director-Research at Univest. The global factors will continue to have a higher impact on gold prices. 'Slowing world economy and trade war between China and the U.S. are driving the gold prices globally', he added.

XAUUSD fell by 1.38% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should expect heightened volatility due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision at 6:00 p.m. UTC and the following press conference at 6:30 p.m. UTC. These events could spark additional movement in XAUUSD, especially if there are hints of further monetary easing. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,450 and support at $3,200.

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📊 GBP remains near its three-year high

GBPUSD fell by 0.6% on Wednesday, continuing to consolidate ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The BoE is widely anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) towards 4.25% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut. Monetary easing is anticipated due to mounting concerns over slowing economic growth because of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Investors will scrutinise the meeting—the first since the tariffs were introduced—for any changes in the bank's tone or economic projections. Additionally, U.K. inflation eased more than expected in March, dropping from 2.8% to 2.6%, supporting the case for the rate reduction.

'We take a slightly more cautious view', said Shaan Raithatha, senior economist at Vanguard. 'Though we acknowledge the inflation outlook is softening, there are some near-term risks', he added, before mentioning improving growth prospects, higher utility prices, and tentative evidence that the rise in national insurance contributions and a national living wage is 'starting to feed through to final prices'.

GBPUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The BoE will announce its rate decision today at 11:00 a.m. UTC. Traders should also monitor the Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, and the votes of the Monetary Policy Committee. The regulator may deliver a so-called 'hawkish cut', meaning they will cut the rate but project fewer rate reductions in the future. In this case, GBPUSD may rally slightly. Conversely, if the BoE sounds explicitly dovish, the pair will likely drop towards 1.32500.

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📊 Euro weakens after the Fed interest rate decision

On Wednesday, the euro (EUR) fell broadly by 0.59%, after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'They were a little more hawkish than a lot of the market expected, and they didn't really change or water down any of the views on inflation being above average or the jobs market selling at a low level', said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street. 'I still think we're in an extended hold period until data tells them that they need to do something and/or we get a lot more trade clarity,' Loh added.

The U.S. dollar (USD) remains steady against the euro today. The currency is holding on to its gains after its strongest rise in two weeks following the Fed's comments about growing economic risks from rising inflation and unemployment. The expectation of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing further supports the greenback. Investors await Saturday's U.S. and China meeting about trade tariffs in Switzerland, hoping the countries will progress in regulating trade relationships.

EURUSD remained above the important 50-day moving average. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00 a.m. UTC. The announcement may add some volatility to EUR pairs. In addition, the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may cause volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch for EURUSD are support at 1.12700 and resistance at 1.13800.

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📊 Gold climbs higher after decline

Gold (XAU) fell by 1.95% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the funds rate at 4.25–4.5% for a third consecutive meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Trump declared he wouldn't lower 145% tariffs on Chinese goods to advance trade talks. This comment cast doubt over potential progress at an upcoming meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland. As a result, the lack of optimism about a trade deal strengthened gold's status as a safe-haven asset.

At the same time, the Fed's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged put downward pressure on gold, which offers no yield. The Fed also expressed growing concerns about rising inflation and unemployment, maintaining a cautious stance on future monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the central bank isn't considering a preemptive rate cut in response to any economic fallout from the ongoing tariff tensions, further influencing investor expectations.

XAUUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its base rate at 11:00 a.m. UTC, which may trigger market volatility. In addition, the U.S. Jobless Claims report will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures could pause the rally in XAUUSD, though any setback is likely to be short-lived. Conversely, higher-than-expected numbers may push XAUUSD higher towards $3,083.

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