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📊 Yen rises after Bank of Japan's meeting

The Japanese yen (JPY) rose by 0.46% on Wednesday, extending gains from the 142.000 level.

👉Possible effects for traders

At its May policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its benchmark short-term interest rate steady as the market had expected. The interest rate is now at 0.5%, the highest since 2008. The unanimous decision reflects the central bank's cautious stance amid heightened global uncertainty, particularly surrounding the potential economic fallout from U.S. President Trump's tariff plans. Ongoing trade negotiations between Tokyo and Washington seem to be a key variable that could shape future policy direction. Against this backdrop, the BoJ adopted a more dovish tone in its quarterly outlook. The bank lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2025 towards 0.5%, down from the 1% forecast in January. It also changed the 2026 outlook to 0.7%, citing intensifying trade risks and rising policy uncertainty.

Additionally, the BoJ reduced its core inflation forecast, now expecting it to average 2.2% in 2025—down from 2.7%—with a further deceleration towards 1.7% in 2026 before gradually rising to 1.9% in 2027. Headline inflation is expected to remain close to 2% through the fiscal year ending March 2028. These projections underscore the central bank's cautious approach to policy normalisation, suggesting that further rate hikes will depend on domestic economic resilience and the evolving global trade environment.

USDJPY rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the Initial Jobs Claims report will be released at 12:30 p.m. UTC, potentially triggering volatility in the market. Key levels to watch are resistance at 144.000 and support at 143.000.

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📊 EURUSD continues declining

On Wednesday, the euro (EUR) lost 0.5% against the U.S. dollar (USD) even though the eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth data exceeded the forecast, unlike the U.S. GDP report.

👉Possible effects for traders

A flash estimate showed that the eurozone economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, matching the previous quarter's pace and exceeding expectations of 1% growth. Among the eurozone's largest economies, Germany remains in recession, with the country's GDP contracting 0.2% year-on-year in Q1. Meanwhile, France and Italy showed modest growth of 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. At the same time, U.S. data disappointed investors, with GDP declining by 0.3% instead of the forecasted 0.3% growth.

'It's important to realise that a large chunk of the fall in GDP is due to the sharp increase in imports, which takes away from GDP growth', said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor at Wealthspire Advisors. 'And that's probably due to the expectation of tariffs. So, if you were to normalise that, you end up with positive GDP growth for the quarter, but it certainly doesn't bode well for Q2'.

EURUSD fell slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two U.S. reports: Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC and ISM Manufacturing (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Lower-than-expected figures could push EURUSD down below 1.13000. Conversely, higher-than-expected results may push the pair higher towards 1.14300.

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📊 Gold declines for the third day in a row

The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.87% on Wednesday, pressured by concerns over the U.S. economic outlook.

👉Possible effects for traders

A weaker-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q1 showed that the U.S. economy had contracted by 0.3% instead of the expected 0.3% growth. The downturn was largely attributed to a more than 40% spike in imports, as businesses and consumers rushed to build inventories ahead. This happened due to anticipated tariff increases under Donald Trump's administration, highlighting the disruptive impact of ongoing trade tensions.

The ADP National Employment report also weighed on market sentiment. The data showed that private sector payrolls increased by just 62,000 in April, well below the estimates of 115,000. It marked the slowest pace of job creation since July 2024. The disappointing economic growth and soft labour market data have intensified fears of a potential recession. These concerns reinforce gold's role as a safe-haven asset, even as short-term price action remains volatile.

XAUUSD plunged by 1.63% during the Asian and early European trading sessions, hitting a low below $3,231. Today, the market will likely have to digest the announcement of the first tranche of deals that will reduce planned tariffs on some countries. In addition, U.S. macroeconomic reports may add extra volatility. Traders should focus on the Jobless Claims figures at 12:30 p.m. UTC and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data at 2:00 p.m. UTC.

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📊 Bitcoin is hitting highs again

Strong institutional inflows and supportive regulatory actions are largely driving the recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price. The launch of several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) catalysed broader institutional adoption, pushing total assets under management in these products beyond $250 billion.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy—now operating under the name Strategy—reported its fifth consecutive quarterly loss, primarily due to a $5.91 billion unrealised loss on its Bitcoin holdings. Nevertheless, the firm remains committed to its Bitcoin strategy, announcing a $21 billion equity raise to finance further purchases. 'A key change under fair value accounting is that our Bitcoin holdings are now marked only on the final day of each quarter, not continuously', noted CFO Andrew Kang during the earnings call.

BTCUSD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll data at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Analysts forecast that 228,000 jobs were added in April. A higher-than-expected figure may trigger a bearish correction in Bitcoin, while softer data may support the bullish trend in BTCUSD.

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📊 EURUSD continues declining

On Thursday, the euro (EUR) lost 0.34% against the U.S. dollar (USD).

👉 Possible effects for traders

The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled potential further rate cuts. The regulator suggested a reduction towards 1.5% by the end of 2025 due to subdued growth and inflationary pressures. Additionally, new U.S. tariffs, including a 25% duty on cars, steel, and aluminium, pose challenges for eurozone exports, potentially dampening future economic growth.

'The U.S. dollar was hit so badly in the immediate aftermath of the tariffs, so now, in the broad picture, there's a normalisation in the market', said Alvin Tan, an independent currency analyst based in Singapore. 'The market is keeping one eye on the economic situation, but the other eye is looking for positive developments in China'.

EURUSD rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two reports: the eurozone's Inflation Rate at 9:00 a.m. UTC and the U.S. nonfarm payroll at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data may affect interest rate expectations and investor sentiment, increasing volatility in the Forex market, including EURUSD. Higher-than-expected results will likely drag EURUSD towards 1.12000. Otherwise, the pair will likely rise towards 1.14000.

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📊 Gold continues declining after reaching record highs

The gold (XAU) price fell by 1.51% on Thursday, even though the recent data showed that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained flat in March.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Gold hit a two-week low of around $3,224 as the U.S. dollar strengthened, particularly due to signals of a possible easing in trade relations between the U.S. and China. Still, gold remains in focus for investors as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing concerns about the global economic slowdown and financial market instability.

XAUUSD rose by 0.44% during the Asian and early European trading sessions, rebounding from the $3,231 support level. Today, traders should focus on the nonfarm payroll report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected data may deepen bearish momentum in precious metals, while lower figures may support gold.

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