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➡🥇➡ Gold rebounds towards $4,200. Two setups before Waller's remarks

XAUUSD trades near $4,200, below resistance at $4,230 and $4,430. Support stands at $4,030. Explore the setups below as interest-rate expectations shape gold's recovery. 💙

🪙 Key takeaways

• Events. Gold recovered from around $4,164 in early Asian trading on Tuesday. The dollar weakened, while U.S. Treasury yields eased as the cash bond market reopened after Monday's holiday. Lower yields reduce the income advantage of bonds over gold, which pays no interest.

• Background. On Monday, Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack called for tighter policy to contain inflation. That keeps further rate increases in focus despite today's market rebound. Middle East energy disruptions also threaten to raise costs, making inflation harder to control.

• Potential triggers. Fed Governor Christopher Waller joins a discussion on artificial intelligence today at 7:45 a.m. UTC. Any comments on rates could affect the dollar, although monetary policy is not the scheduled topic. September's U.S. Consumer Price Index follows on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Forecast: 3.6% / Previous: 3.4% (year on year). A softer reading could reduce expectations of further tightening and support gold. Higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and restrain the recovery.

🪙 Tip for traders

If reduced rate expectations help gold break above $4,230, XAUUSD may advance towards $4,430. The bullish view fails if the price falls back below $4,230. If renewed inflation concerns lift the dollar while gold stays below $4,230, XAUUSD may retreat towards $4,030. The bearish view fails if the price rises above $4,230.

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➡🥇➡Gold trades near $4,174. Two setups before U.S. import-price data

XAUUSD trades near $4,174 per ounce, below the $4,230 resistance and above the $4,030 support. A sustained recovery would put the higher $4,430 resistance in focus. Explore the two scenarios below before today's inflation release.

🪙 Key takeaways

• Events. Gold has recovered from around $4,158 earlier in Friday's Asian session. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh has already spoken in Bangkok, declining to signal October's rate decision. The dollar weakened after his remarks, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
• Background. This week's selloff in technology shares encouraged investors to buy government bonds, lowering their yields. That reduced the appeal of interest-bearing assets relative to gold. However, Thursday's U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 1.3% monthly rise in September. Forecast: 0.6% / Previous: 0.5%, revised. Persistent inflation could keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates again.
• Potential triggers. September's U.S. import-price report arrives at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Forecast: 0.9% / Previous: 0.7%, both month-on-month. A stronger reading could lift rate expectations and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold. A softer result could ease those pressures and support its recovery.

🪙 Tip for traders

If gold breaks above $4,230 and holds there as yields fall, the bullish scenario targets $4,430. A return below $4,230 invalidates that setup. Alternatively, rejection at $4,230 alongside a stronger dollar could send gold towards $4,030. That bearish scenario fails if the price moves above $4,230 and holds there.

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⚡Reversal alert: XAUUSD tested the resistance level of 4,190.00💙

XAUUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 4,177.00.

Set your stop loss at 4,211.00 above the previous high ($34.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 4,143.00 ($34.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

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➡💲➡Dollar holds near 158.19 yen. Two scenarios after Japan's trade figures

USDJPY trades near 158.19 on Wednesday, below resistance at 160.300. Weekly resistance stands at 163.970, while support sits at 153.000. Use the scenarios below to weigh Japan's policy signals against U.S. bond demand.

🪙 Key takeaways

• Events. Japan's September trade deficit was 536.6 billion yen, exceeding the forecast shortfall of 181 billion yen. It narrowed from roughly 1.1 trillion yen in August. The country still faced costly energy imports, which put pressure on its external finances.
• Background. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said today that underlying inflation was close to the 2% target. He warned that delaying policy changes could increase inflation risks. This supports the case for higher Japanese rates, potentially helping the yen.
• Potential triggers. The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction takes place at 5:00 p.m. UTC. Strong demand could lower yields and weaken the dollar's interest-rate advantage over the yen. Weak demand could push yields higher, supporting USDJPY despite expectations of further BoJ tightening.

🪙 Tip for traders

If U.S. yields rise and USDJPY breaks above 160.300, it may climb towards weekly resistance at 163.970. The bullish view fails if the pair returns below 160.300. If yields ease and a rebound fails at 160.300, USDJPY may fall towards 153.000. The bearish view fails if the price holds above 160.300.

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