• Events. XAUUSD kept below $4,500 per ounce after Iran launched missile attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, which met with U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island. Strong U.S. data—job openings and manufacturing activity—also pressured XAU 📊

• Background. Brent crude is trading above $96 per barrel. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to consider additional rate hikes. This could be negative for gold because XAU does not pay interest and usually struggles when yields and the U.S. dollar rise.

• Possible outcome. If U.S. labour market data and services activity remain strong, the dollar may gain more support. XAUUSD could stay under pressure unless safe-haven demand becomes much stronger 📊

• Events. The euro gained some support after a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East 💶 However, it remains capped by ongoing U.S.–Iran uncertainty, Gulf risks and expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data, including strong ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS reports, continue to bolster the dollar.

• Background. European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike expectations and persistent eurozone inflation support the euro. In May, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose to 3.2% YoY, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation hitting seven-month highs. High energy costs and slowing growth raise stagflation risks, while U.S. data and a potential Fed rate hike boost the dollar.

• Possible outcome. EURUSD may remain in a mixed, sideways range near 1.1600 until new catalysts emerge 📊 A strong U.S. nonfarm payroll report or renewed geopolitical tensions could push the euro lower, while a clear ECB policy signal or easing risks might provide short-term relief.

• Events. BTC recently dipped below $62,000, triggering $1.66 billion in crypto liquidations 💰 Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows, though some products like BlackRock IBIT remain positive on a year-to-date basis. Corporate holders like Strategy have also faced pressure, including symbolic BTC sales and share price declines.

• Background. Institutional demand and spot ETF accumulation are creating a stable base of long-term holders. Since March 2024, ETFs and Strategy added 1.24 million BTC, transferring coins from older holders to new investors. The realised price for Bitcoin stands at $53,800, historically a key floor in bear markets.

• Possible outcome. BTC may remain volatile in the short term, balancing between institutional absorption and selling pressure 📊 Maintaining above $53,800 could support a more stable recovery, while breaches below this level may signal deeper downside risk.