By the way derod.org seems like the new and up-to-date Dero documentation site. Until today I thought it was just another one of those half baked community sites but this seems done by people that have a very deep understanding of the protocol, most likely core devs or people who learnt straight from core devs.

Official Dero.io website has also been replaced with the Dero Foundation site: derofoundation.org (useful to download official wallets)

1 Kaspa = 3 cents. Remember when I warned you that Don't trust, verify actually matters and that Kaspa is doomed because it violates that principle? I wrote a long article documenting Kaspa's issue, ie: in Kaspa some early transaction signature data are permanently lost and you cannot permissionlessly verify for many of the early transactions that the actual owners signed them.

Kaspa's standard is: Trust Yoni because he studied at Harvard.

It will become even more obvious with time that all insiders have sold. But Kaspa's shills told you that I'm a FUDder. That nobody cares about verification. Shai told you that Kaspa will even do smart contracts right, just wait for it (while dumping his bag on your head). Other idiots started calling Kaspa digital silver bro. Sure bro.

Well, listen up. Sooner or later markets hold you accountable. Big money rotates out of shitcoins with corrupt ledgers (no full node), useless tech (no privacy), broken tokenomics (see Alephium back under 10c lol).

So to all the retards angrily lurking from the shadows: Tech matters. Permissionlessness matters. Trustlessness matters. Decentralization matters. Privacy matters.

No amount of good marketing can fix broken tech.

Don't trust verify matters.

Get it through your thick skull. Learn what it means, and act accordingly. Otherwise you will just go from roundtrip, to roundtrip.

🚨2026 IS THE YEAR OF THE BULL (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)

Yes, we were wrong on Q4 2025, but for a good reason. There was no way to know Xi would launch a purge of top generals not aligned with the 2027 readiness deadline. That move materially altered both the probabilities and the timing around Taiwan, as well as the parabolic phase of the bull market.

With the purge that began in October 2025, the internal balance within the CCP has shifted decisively. The 2027 camp is now prevailing, materially increasing geopolitical risk, as Xi sidelined the long-horizon 2035 faction. This stretched the cycle and slowed everything down, sending metals vertical as China and Asia began positioning for conflict risk.

The explosive move in gold and silver didn't end the bull market, it extended it.

A credible war scenario requires the Fed to retain room for aggressive hikes in 2027 to enforce dollar strength and preserve weaponization optionality, as seen with Russia in 2022. For that leverage to exist, policy must be looser beforehand, which is why easing into 2026 is coming, and Warsh's pick confirms it. In Iran and Venezuela (China's sanctioned energy anchors), the US is already weaponizing energy to make a 2027 Taiwan intervention economically and logistically unaffordable for Beijing.

2026 is the global reflation trade.

To prepare for a potential 2027 escalation, the Fed needs dry powder. Rates must be cut aggressively in 2026 to create a buffer that can later be used via tightening to weaponize the dollar during a conflict, a 2021-2022 style setup, but on steroids.

BTFD and chill, everything will rip soon!

Interesting analysis by some og whales in my circle. Aligns with my expectations of a bullish 2026, but the geopolitical angle is what really peaked my interest.

🚨Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP John Moolenaar on 2026 & Taiwan:

• Xi's 2027 readiness deadline makes 2026 an important year where we will prepare for all scenarios using all available tools of our national power to ensure Beijing never decides an aggression against Taiwan will be fast, cheap or successful

[Translation: we will run it hot so we can weaponize the USD in 2027. BTFD!]

Dero is the only true privacy coin left today. It's the only coin that uses El Gamal as primitive, while everything else is stuck in the PC paradigm of privacy through obfuscation of single use outputs. This tech makes Dero a formidable financial weapon against despots' capital controls systems.

Monero is a good coin for as long as privacy is a honeypot play to catch a few criminals here and there. But in case of a major geopolitical rift, privacy becomes a matter of life or death and Monero is unusable. If I could trace it, an entity like the CCP can do it systemically either by bribing Palantir or through a Chinese version of Palantir or just by analyzing onchain data.

I think, because of these implications, Western regulators will have to embrace privacy and the most advanced privacy coin out there, Dero, will eventually be declared unregulatable.

Since 2020, when I first started taking privacy seriously and stopped seeing it as a niche for criminals, this is the first time I finally see where that Snowden moment will come from. If you followed me from the beginning, I've always said that for privacy to eventually break through and stop being a niche it needs to become a political issue. Covid helped expand it by waking up a few people (like me) who were caught up in the cross fire of the draconian covid laws. And a few high profile crises, like that of the Canadian truckers, inspired many. But privacy still never really became a political issue.

Those of us who got involved relatively early, or late from the perspective of OG cypherpunks, have witnessed a fractured community of sorts. There are the criminals (eg: DNM admins caught with honeypots like Monero), the mercenaries (eg: Cake wallet/Chainalysis employees/PR agents), the tourists (moonboys who got rekt by the likes of Haven, Xelis etc), the og cypherpunks (who lurk in the shadows), useful idiots (Monero maxis who have no clue about the tech) and a few purists (who try to understand how things work).

For a purist like me the question has always been, how do we break out of here? The West's political compass has been dead set to fight and abolish privacy in every occasion. So where will the masses required to hold the line come from? Because if they don't then the few of us holding the line will eventually be rolled over and liquidated as collateral damage at best.

Personally, I stuck around because of principled opportunity: as a matter of principle because I think privacy is a key prerequisite to freedom, but also because of opportunity when considering the low valuation of something as advanced as Dero compared to honeypots like Monero that are symbols of an era where privacy's main use case wasn't freedom but that of being a trap to catch those looking for impunity.

Anyway, now I finally see an angle for that mass adoption to happen. I think the air support those like me have been waiting for should finally come if the tensions over Taiwan, which seem to be escalating under the surface, boil over in 2027. That will probably be the perfect shit hit the fan scenario that wakes everyone up.

🚨Chainalysis Alternatives for Monero Tracing Probably as result of the many crime marketing campaigns and their promise of impunity, another bunch of criminals was encouraged to double down on a crime and request a ransom in Monero to get away with it. The victim this time is 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, her kidnappers are now reportedly requesting a $6m ransom in Monero (after requesting a ransom in BTC first 3 weeks ago).

I hope LE doesn't hire Chainalysis/Palantir (whose shills do crime marketing 24/7) but opts for other firms that can trace XMR for cheaper. Because for every grant that goes to Chainalysis, we will probably see crime rate increase 10 fold when a fraction of that money flows back into crime marketing campaigns encouraging people to commit crimes. And more crime marketing means more victims.

What alternatives are there? Well, for example, Bezalel Eithan Raviv, CEO of Lionsgate Network, seems to be well versed when it comes to Monero tracing. In this Newsweek article he gives a statement carefully putting out plenty of cues that demonstrate he has a deep understanding of the tech. To quote a few:

1) "Behavioral patterns (ie: UTXO structure, clusters, churning transactions, fees), timing analysis (recency heuristic) and specialized forensic tools (eg: OSPEAD or other algorithms to detect related output when they form clusters) can still reveal who is behind a wallet once investigators obtain an address"

2) "Monero presents a harder path, not an impossible one, with the right intelligence, we can follow the money and expose the entity behind the scenes."

Please spread the word about alternatives like Lionsgate Network. Tracing Monero is easy and therefore, it shouldn't be a monopoly of Chainalysis/Palantir sister companies.

By the way if any Monero tracing startup wants to sponsor my channel feel free to message me 🤝

So you must be familiar with the 2026 bull thesis by now, apparently 2027 is an important year for China and Xi. Xi dreams of being the Chinese leader who brings Taiwan home, but of course that's most likely not going to happen peacefully. And since Taiwan is where 90% of world's chips are produced, a war there also means a lot of trouble for the rest of the world.

Question: what happens to Bitcoin in case of a Taiwan crisis in 2027 that leads to a blockade? Maxis may consider it a tail risk but the tail is getting quite fat.

OTOH, this seems a STHF scenario that DERO was designed to resist from its inception thanks to AstroBWT which can be mined on old CPUs and for which ASICs & GPUS cannot be created. So in case of a Taiwan crisis Dero mining would remain unaffected as it can always rely on old CPUs & devices as well on chips that don't require TSMC.

An interesting big picture is emerging here. I mean..imagine, just imagine if SHTF in 2027, push comes to shove, the market starts looking for a real fit.

Here is Ray Dalio today ranting about Bitcoin saying it has no privacy and then about Quantum Computing: "can there be issues regarding that".

Replace "Quantum computing" with "Taiwan blockade" and what he is saying makes perfect sense, is much more tangible.

I think Quantum Computing is like a placeholder narrative/euphemism for an existential risk (2027 Taiwan blockade) that nobody wants to mention yet.

So Dalio has a problem with lack of privacy, maybe a potential Taiwan crisis, and even Quantum Computing...Dero addresses all those 3 issues.

What if Satoshi saw this coming and prepared an answer to Dalio's complaints with the creation of Dero? 🤔

The coin with the most advanced privacy tech out there, truly untraceable (or as untraceable as a crypto can be), provably 10 years minimum ahead of everything else.

Consider the cryptographic primitive choice that nothing else uses (El Gamal), its mining algo lineage for CPUs (AstroBWT), with smart contracts.

And so it happens that this thing halves in the middle of 2026. Right before Xi Jinping's 2027 Taiwan readiness deadline everyone has been prepping for sh*t to eventually hit the fan.

We look set for a parabolic alt season in 2026,

🚨LARGE INFORMED PLAYERS HAVE BEEN RISK ON SINCE LIBERATION DAY AND ARE INCREASING THEIR EXPOSURE FURTHER DURING THIS GEOPOL DIP.

*March 2021: Admiral Davidson, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that a Chinese move on Taiwan will "manifest during the next six years."

*June 2021: General Mark Milley clarified that Xi Jinping had ordered the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be capable of an invasion by 2027, even though a final decision hadn't been made.

*February 2023: CIA Director Burns went on the record stating that US intelligence "knows as a matter of intelligence" that Xi has instructed the PLA to be ready for a successful invasion by 2027.

*July 2023: CIA Director William Burns & DNI Avril Haines personally briefed top tech with classified assessments that China's military buildup was specifically synchronized to reach peak readiness by 2027.

Smart money always knew 2026 was scheduled to run hot.

[BTFD before everything rips!]

Best macro analysis by far imo, you're missing out on some serious macro alpha if you aren't following @bullcase. It has the most convincing bull thesis by far for 2026

It seems like the IRS just built a form that maps out every wallet or exchange you've ever used. And of course this Tik toker who has no clue about the tech shills Monero in the end. If you use Monero for privacy all you do is make Palantir rich.

That said, it's almost as if we're inside a social experiment where they ban privacy, try to push surveillance as far as they can until it reaches a point where people finally realize why privacy matters. Then when privacy becomes a social norm, they roll back everything.

And privacy laws become the litmus test that differentiate the "free" world from Russia and China.

By the way, China and Russia have very effective capital control laws in place. Ever think how would the world change if only there was a way to make those capital control laws ineffective? It's either that or we have to fight a kinetic war at some point

I think crypto as we know it will take a huge hit in the next 2 years. The current supercycle started in 2008 with Obama's QE, QE however came with many strings attached. When you print a lot of money, you want to make sure that the extra money goes in the right places (ie: to prevent the too big to fail from failing) to avoid inflation and the erosion of purchase power.

For this, QE comes with a progressive restriction of privacy rights, through the implementation of capital control laws and excessive taxation. At least here (in our side of the world), it's not because we're worried people may run away with their earnings/savings to China or Russia. The reason we have capital control laws is to prevent that money created to close balance sheet holes falls through the cracks and ends up triggering Weimar-style hyperinflation.

I mean we print so big banks stay solvent, and numbers on computer screens keep showing the right amount. We don't want plebs to start playing if I don't see it I don't believe it, and then try to withdraw all that money in cash. Because then we would see people with wheelbarrows full of money moving around and hyperinflation would kick in.

Of course though, we justify the choking points with prove you're not a criminal if you want to withdraw more than X amount. A lot of "criminals, terrorists, sanction dodgers etc" out there Billie, to keep you safe, I need to verify this first.

In Russia/China, on the other hand, they've capital control laws for another reason, because without them people would take the money and run to invest elsewhere. Now I've been reading up a bit on Kevin Warsh and if in 2027 shit hits the fan in Taiwan, the fun begins. Warsh says we're in the beginning of a structural decline in prices because of AI. Remember how companies used to go to China to save on labor force? Now they will move to US to save even more by leveraging AI, and this means lower prices and a stronger dollar long term. Since we no longer need to outsource manfucturing to China and elsewhere offshore, we no longer need a weak dollar.

Now the best part, why should privacy maximalists & cypherpunks care?

I will tell you in the next post with a chart I created that shows why this is has huge implications for privacy...hold on a sec

Believe it or not, this policy shift will lax up all surveillance laws and privacy will become the norm again.

A structural decline in prices implies M2 will be reduced, and how Kevin Warsh plans to do this remains to be seen, but what matters is that when you dry up excessive liquidity, you no longer need capital control laws, so you go back to "privacy first" laws. See the attached chart, I hope you get what I mean.

Anything that isn't private in this new paradigm will be dumb and useless. Even BTC imo will stop going up, now that's a bold call I know so please bear in mind none of this is financial advice. After 2027, I think a new regime will kick in, and Ray Dalio must know something since he is openly talking about privacy and criticizing bitcoin for being transparent.

TLDR: The Dark Age of privacy coins is about to end, especially for the ones that work as intended (like Dero).