Forwarded from Spencer Li
Some of the recently closed trades and the P&L: https://synapsetrading.com/trade-log-results/
Forwarded from Spencer Li
The recent crypto crash wasn’t evenly distributed — some products, sectors, and instruments were absolutely crushed, while others (like BTC spot ETFs) held up remarkably well. Below is a full breakdown of what got hit hardest, why it happened, and what it reveals about crypto’s current structure.
🧨 1. Altcoins and DeFi tokens — the biggest casualties
Hit: –25% to –50% in 24–48 hours
Examples: SOL, AVAX, LINK, APT, SUI, MATIC, ARB, OP, AAVE, UNI, GMX
Why they collapsed:
Leverage stacking:
Many altcoins had high perpetual futures open interest (OI) to market cap ratios. When BTC fell 8–10%, cascading liquidations forced mass selling in smaller-cap tokens.
Funding-rate imbalance:
Perpetual swaps funding rates on SOL, AVAX, LINK, and others were heavily positive (+0.05–0.12%/8h) pre-crash — meaning everyone was long.
When the wipeout started, the funding reset wiped out overlevered longs first.
Liquidity desert:
Market depth in alts has thinned dramatically since mid-2024. Most pairs trade on offshore venues (Binance, OKX) with only a few market makers. Once panic starts, slippage explodes, amplifying price moves.
Narrative fatigue:
The AI + L2 + “SOL ecosystem revival” hype was crowded. These stories unwind fastest when macro turns risk-off.
🧭 Effect:
Many DeFi blue chips are now back to late-2023 levels. Expect slower recovery—liquidity and trust take months to rebuild once leverage dies.
💀 2. Perpetual Futures & High-Leverage Derivatives
Hit: Record liquidations of US$19–22 billion, mainly on Binance, OKX, Bybit.
Why:
Perps are the first domino.
When BTC lost its $118k support, cascading margin calls liquidated cross-margin positions tied to altcoins.
Many traders used BTC or USDT as collateral, so the BTC drawdown triggered cross-asset liquidations.
Market-making algos pulled liquidity, creating “air pockets” — multiple exchanges saw >10% wicks below spot indices.
🧭 Effect:
Funding rates went from +0.08% to negative (–0.02%) within hours.
Perp OI wiped ~30–40% overnight — effectively flushing out months of built-up leverage.
🏦 3. CeFi yield products & structured notes
Hit: Some funds and platforms offering delta-one or leveraged yield notes (BTC auto-callables, basis trades, and options vaults) suffered drawdowns or margin calls.
Why:
When BTC dropped 10% quickly, options knock-in barriers were triggered on structured notes.
Platforms promising “stable 10–20% APY” using options vaults suddenly had to sell collateral into a falling market.
Market-neutral funds running basis trades (long spot / short futures) were fine if they were hedged, but those running partial hedge or leverage 3–5× faced liquidations when funding flipped negative.
🧭 Effect:
Most CeFi platforms paused redemptions briefly or repriced yields lower.
It’s not a 2022-style contagion (no big lender defaults yet), but expect smaller funds and desks to quietly close.
🪙 4. High-beta Layer-1 ecosystems (especially Solana)
Hit: SOL –30%, ecosystem tokens (JUP, BONK, PYTH, RAY, JTO) –40–60%
Why:
Solana had been the “crowded long” of 2025.
A massive airdrop season + ETF optimism had created leverage piles across its DEXs and CeFi venues.
SOL perps had extreme funding; whales used it as beta exposure to BTC.
Once BTC slipped, SOL’s high open interest (~US$2.5B) unwound brutally.
🧭 Effect:
On-chain TVL dropped ~20%; some DeFi projects temporarily paused emissions to stabilize token supply.
Expect multi-week rebuilding before trust returns.
🔒 5. Smaller exchanges, perpetual DEXs, and on-chain leverage
Hit: dYdX, GMX, Hyperliquid, Aevo saw double-digit volume slumps and user liquidations.
Why:
Many users took leverage directly on-chain with small margin buffers.
Gas spikes + oracle delays = delayed liquidations → overshoot to the downside.
The Hyperliquid wallet hack (~US$21M) added another confidence hit during peak volatility.
🧭 Effect:
TVL drawdowns across leverage DEXs: –25–35% overnight.
Users rotate back to major CEXs for a while; on-chain perps volumes will recover last.
🧨 1. Altcoins and DeFi tokens — the biggest casualties
Hit: –25% to –50% in 24–48 hours
Examples: SOL, AVAX, LINK, APT, SUI, MATIC, ARB, OP, AAVE, UNI, GMX
Why they collapsed:
Leverage stacking:
Many altcoins had high perpetual futures open interest (OI) to market cap ratios. When BTC fell 8–10%, cascading liquidations forced mass selling in smaller-cap tokens.
Funding-rate imbalance:
Perpetual swaps funding rates on SOL, AVAX, LINK, and others were heavily positive (+0.05–0.12%/8h) pre-crash — meaning everyone was long.
When the wipeout started, the funding reset wiped out overlevered longs first.
Liquidity desert:
Market depth in alts has thinned dramatically since mid-2024. Most pairs trade on offshore venues (Binance, OKX) with only a few market makers. Once panic starts, slippage explodes, amplifying price moves.
Narrative fatigue:
The AI + L2 + “SOL ecosystem revival” hype was crowded. These stories unwind fastest when macro turns risk-off.
🧭 Effect:
Many DeFi blue chips are now back to late-2023 levels. Expect slower recovery—liquidity and trust take months to rebuild once leverage dies.
💀 2. Perpetual Futures & High-Leverage Derivatives
Hit: Record liquidations of US$19–22 billion, mainly on Binance, OKX, Bybit.
Why:
Perps are the first domino.
When BTC lost its $118k support, cascading margin calls liquidated cross-margin positions tied to altcoins.
Many traders used BTC or USDT as collateral, so the BTC drawdown triggered cross-asset liquidations.
Market-making algos pulled liquidity, creating “air pockets” — multiple exchanges saw >10% wicks below spot indices.
🧭 Effect:
Funding rates went from +0.08% to negative (–0.02%) within hours.
Perp OI wiped ~30–40% overnight — effectively flushing out months of built-up leverage.
🏦 3. CeFi yield products & structured notes
Hit: Some funds and platforms offering delta-one or leveraged yield notes (BTC auto-callables, basis trades, and options vaults) suffered drawdowns or margin calls.
Why:
When BTC dropped 10% quickly, options knock-in barriers were triggered on structured notes.
Platforms promising “stable 10–20% APY” using options vaults suddenly had to sell collateral into a falling market.
Market-neutral funds running basis trades (long spot / short futures) were fine if they were hedged, but those running partial hedge or leverage 3–5× faced liquidations when funding flipped negative.
🧭 Effect:
Most CeFi platforms paused redemptions briefly or repriced yields lower.
It’s not a 2022-style contagion (no big lender defaults yet), but expect smaller funds and desks to quietly close.
🪙 4. High-beta Layer-1 ecosystems (especially Solana)
Hit: SOL –30%, ecosystem tokens (JUP, BONK, PYTH, RAY, JTO) –40–60%
Why:
Solana had been the “crowded long” of 2025.
A massive airdrop season + ETF optimism had created leverage piles across its DEXs and CeFi venues.
SOL perps had extreme funding; whales used it as beta exposure to BTC.
Once BTC slipped, SOL’s high open interest (~US$2.5B) unwound brutally.
🧭 Effect:
On-chain TVL dropped ~20%; some DeFi projects temporarily paused emissions to stabilize token supply.
Expect multi-week rebuilding before trust returns.
🔒 5. Smaller exchanges, perpetual DEXs, and on-chain leverage
Hit: dYdX, GMX, Hyperliquid, Aevo saw double-digit volume slumps and user liquidations.
Why:
Many users took leverage directly on-chain with small margin buffers.
Gas spikes + oracle delays = delayed liquidations → overshoot to the downside.
The Hyperliquid wallet hack (~US$21M) added another confidence hit during peak volatility.
🧭 Effect:
TVL drawdowns across leverage DEXs: –25–35% overnight.
Users rotate back to major CEXs for a while; on-chain perps volumes will recover last.
❤4
Forwarded from Spencer Li
🏦 6. Alt-Lending & DeFi stablecoin protocols
Hit: Smaller money markets and algo-stable projects suffered heavy outflows.
Why:
Collateral values (mostly BTC/ETH/SOL) fell sharply → liquidation cascades.
Protocols like Aave, Compound, MarginFi, Solend saw 20–40% loan book shrinkage.
Algorithmic stablecoins lost pegs briefly (e.g., USDe to 0.96, USDY to 0.93) before recovering.
🧭 Effect:
Risk appetite in DeFi credit is frozen short-term; stablecoin yields will fall sharply as borrowing dries up.
🧊 7. NFTs & Game tokens
Hit: Floor prices dropped 20–40%, volumes collapsed 70% overnight.
Why: NFTs are pure risk assets with zero liquidity depth. ETH volatility drains capital from NFT markets first.
🧭 Effect: Blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, Azuki) hit new multi-year lows; GameFi tokens retraced to 2023 levels.
💬 8. Who held up best
BTC spot ETFs: Minor redemptions; inflows slowed but no panic selling — this was leverage unwinding, not ETF exits.
ETH spot ETFs: Slightly negative flows but resilient.
Stablecoins: USDT/USDC held their pegs; redemptions modest.
Hit: Smaller money markets and algo-stable projects suffered heavy outflows.
Why:
Collateral values (mostly BTC/ETH/SOL) fell sharply → liquidation cascades.
Protocols like Aave, Compound, MarginFi, Solend saw 20–40% loan book shrinkage.
Algorithmic stablecoins lost pegs briefly (e.g., USDe to 0.96, USDY to 0.93) before recovering.
🧭 Effect:
Risk appetite in DeFi credit is frozen short-term; stablecoin yields will fall sharply as borrowing dries up.
🧊 7. NFTs & Game tokens
Hit: Floor prices dropped 20–40%, volumes collapsed 70% overnight.
Why: NFTs are pure risk assets with zero liquidity depth. ETH volatility drains capital from NFT markets first.
🧭 Effect: Blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, Azuki) hit new multi-year lows; GameFi tokens retraced to 2023 levels.
💬 8. Who held up best
BTC spot ETFs: Minor redemptions; inflows slowed but no panic selling — this was leverage unwinding, not ETF exits.
ETH spot ETFs: Slightly negative flows but resilient.
Stablecoins: USDT/USDC held their pegs; redemptions modest.
❤2👍2
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Monthly Market Wrap (November 2025)
November marked a pivotal month across financial markets, characterized by a sharp pivot in macro expectations, a widening of equity market leadership, and breakout moves in crypto and precious metals. The dominant theme was the market’s conviction that the global monetary tightening cycle is effectively over.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49799
November marked a pivotal month across financial markets, characterized by a sharp pivot in macro expectations, a widening of equity market leadership, and breakout moves in crypto and precious metals. The dominant theme was the market’s conviction that the global monetary tightening cycle is effectively over.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49799
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NFP Analysis
The Government Drag is Real: The shocking -105,000 job loss in
October was largely driven by a reduction of ~162,000 federal
government jobs (deferred buyouts/shrinking initiatives). This
confirms that fiscal austerity is now a headwind for the economy.
removing a buffer that had previously supported job numbers.
Private Sector is Stalling: If you strip out the "noise" of government
firing, the private sector is in a "low-hire, low-fire" mode. Businesses
aren't laying people off en masse yet, but they have stopped hiring.
The Unemployment Trend is Dangerous: The jump to 4.6%
unemployment is significant. In labor economics, once the
unemployment rate starts drifting up by 0.5% or more from its cycle
low (which was ~3.4%), it historically does not stop until it hits a
recessionary peak. We are perilously close to triggering recession
indicators like the "Sahm Rule."
Inflation is Dead: Wage growth collapsing to +0.1% MoM is the final
nail in the coffin for wage-spiral inflation. This gives the Fed "green
light" permission to slash rates without worrying about reigniting
price hikes.
What This Means Going Forward
This report cements the path for 2026. The Fed is no longer fighting
inflation; they are now fighting to prevent a recession. Expect them
to cut rates at the January meeting and potentially signal a steeper
path of cuts throughout the first half of 2026.
The Government Drag is Real: The shocking -105,000 job loss in
October was largely driven by a reduction of ~162,000 federal
government jobs (deferred buyouts/shrinking initiatives). This
confirms that fiscal austerity is now a headwind for the economy.
removing a buffer that had previously supported job numbers.
Private Sector is Stalling: If you strip out the "noise" of government
firing, the private sector is in a "low-hire, low-fire" mode. Businesses
aren't laying people off en masse yet, but they have stopped hiring.
The Unemployment Trend is Dangerous: The jump to 4.6%
unemployment is significant. In labor economics, once the
unemployment rate starts drifting up by 0.5% or more from its cycle
low (which was ~3.4%), it historically does not stop until it hits a
recessionary peak. We are perilously close to triggering recession
indicators like the "Sahm Rule."
Inflation is Dead: Wage growth collapsing to +0.1% MoM is the final
nail in the coffin for wage-spiral inflation. This gives the Fed "green
light" permission to slash rates without worrying about reigniting
price hikes.
What This Means Going Forward
This report cements the path for 2026. The Fed is no longer fighting
inflation; they are now fighting to prevent a recession. Expect them
to cut rates at the January meeting and potentially signal a steeper
path of cuts throughout the first half of 2026.
👍5❤2🙏1
Monthly Market Wrap (December 2025)
December 2025 marked the conclusion of a tumultuous yet resilient year for global financial markets, characterized by a complex interplay of monetary easing, geopolitical escalation, and the persistent dominance of the artificial intelligence investment theme. The month served as a microcosm of the broader 2025 narrative: equities grinded higher despite structural economic cracks, while safe-haven assets—specifically gold—reached historic valuations amid renewed global instability.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49803
December 2025 marked the conclusion of a tumultuous yet resilient year for global financial markets, characterized by a complex interplay of monetary easing, geopolitical escalation, and the persistent dominance of the artificial intelligence investment theme. The month served as a microcosm of the broader 2025 narrative: equities grinded higher despite structural economic cracks, while safe-haven assets—specifically gold—reached historic valuations amid renewed global instability.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49803
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Monthly Market Wrap (January 2026)
January 2026 will be recorded in financial history as a month of profound regime change, a period where the tectonic plates of geopolitics, monetary policy, and market structure shifted simultaneously, generating extreme volatility and forcing a re-evaluation of risk premiums across every major asset class. The month began with a decisive reassertion of American hard power in the Western Hemisphere and concluded with a dramatic reshaping of the Federal Reserve’s leadership trajectory, events that collectively dismantled the “soft landing” consensus that had prevailed entering the year.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49808
January 2026 will be recorded in financial history as a month of profound regime change, a period where the tectonic plates of geopolitics, monetary policy, and market structure shifted simultaneously, generating extreme volatility and forcing a re-evaluation of risk premiums across every major asset class. The month began with a decisive reassertion of American hard power in the Western Hemisphere and concluded with a dramatic reshaping of the Federal Reserve’s leadership trajectory, events that collectively dismantled the “soft landing” consensus that had prevailed entering the year.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49808
👍3
Monthly Market Wrap (February 2026)
The month of February 2026 represents a seminal inflection point in American monetary history, defined by a shift from the cautious, data-dependent stance of the Jerome Powell era toward a more disciplined, rules-based doctrine following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. This transition occurred against a backdrop of complex economic signals, where the lagging effects of a 2025 government shutdown collided with robust January labor data, creating a paradox of cooling growth and stubborn inflation. The “Warsh Shock,” as dubbed by market participants, triggered a violent repricing across all major asset classes, as investors recalibrated expectations for a central bank that would prioritize currency stability and balance sheet reduction over asset price support.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49812
The month of February 2026 represents a seminal inflection point in American monetary history, defined by a shift from the cautious, data-dependent stance of the Jerome Powell era toward a more disciplined, rules-based doctrine following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. This transition occurred against a backdrop of complex economic signals, where the lagging effects of a 2025 government shutdown collided with robust January labor data, creating a paradox of cooling growth and stubborn inflation. The “Warsh Shock,” as dubbed by market participants, triggered a violent repricing across all major asset classes, as investors recalibrated expectations for a central bank that would prioritize currency stability and balance sheet reduction over asset price support.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49812
❤2
Monthly Market Wrap (March 2026)
The global financial landscape in March 2026 underwent a structural transformation, as a period of relative economic resilience was abruptly superseded by a regime of heightened geopolitical volatility and supply-side inflationary impulses.
At the core of this transition was the escalation of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint responsible for the transit of approximately one-fifth of the world’s petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
This disruption introduced a stagflationary shock that effectively dismantled the "soft landing" consensus that had prevailed since the start of the year, leading to the worst monthly performance for the S&P 500 since September 2022.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49816
The global financial landscape in March 2026 underwent a structural transformation, as a period of relative economic resilience was abruptly superseded by a regime of heightened geopolitical volatility and supply-side inflationary impulses.
At the core of this transition was the escalation of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint responsible for the transit of approximately one-fifth of the world’s petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
This disruption introduced a stagflationary shock that effectively dismantled the "soft landing" consensus that had prevailed since the start of the year, leading to the worst monthly performance for the S&P 500 since September 2022.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49816
❤4⚡1
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- 15-Minute System: Strategies designed for busy professionals. If you have 15 minutes a day, you have enough time to trade.
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- Lifetime Mentoring: Unlimited re-sits of our 2-day live training and lifetime access to our insider community.
⚠️ LIMITED SLOTS AVAILABLE
To maintain quality, each intake is strictly limited to 15 new applicants.
Questions? Drop us a message on Telegram @iamrecneps or WhatsApp +65-8897-1204.
Additional Information & Links:
- TMP Program information
- Trade Log & Results
- Trading Signals Explained
- Testimonials & feedback
- Registration form & dates
Special promo link (SGD 3280): https://hitpay.link/cehhqr
Trade Log Update:
Closed and took profit on quite a few trades, and also opened a few new positions.
Some of the new positions like LIT, LITE, MO are already up 7-9% in just a few days.
Swing trading is about capturing 10-20% swings over 1-2 weeks, with minimal risk and effort. And once in a while you get a huge winner that goes up more than 50%.
Closed and took profit on quite a few trades, and also opened a few new positions.
Some of the new positions like LIT, LITE, MO are already up 7-9% in just a few days.
Swing trading is about capturing 10-20% swings over 1-2 weeks, with minimal risk and effort. And once in a while you get a huge winner that goes up more than 50%.
❤4
Spencer Li (Synapse Trading)
🚀 REGISTRATION OPEN: Trading Mastery Program (TMP) May 2026 Intake Date: 16 & 17 May 2026 Most people lose money in the stock market because they just "guess" or follow the news. In 2026, the big banks use smart computers to beat you every time. We have…
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Don’t be the one looking back in 6 months wishing you had started today. 💪🏻
The markets have officially entered a super bull cycle. This is one of those rare moments in history where the right moves can change your entire year.
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Monthly Market Wrap (March 2026)
While the month of March was characterized by the initial shock of open hostilities between the United States and Iran, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, April witnessed a profound decoupling of financial assets from geopolitical volatility.
This period was marked by the S&P 500 delivering a 10.5% monthly return, a rare occurrence documented only 13 times in the last half-century, as investors looked past the immediate fog of war to capitalize on the accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out.
The narrative of the month was one of structural economic resilience, where robust corporate earnings and productivity-enhancing business investment countered the headwinds of double-digit energy inflation and a hawkish shift in global monetary expectations.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49865
While the month of March was characterized by the initial shock of open hostilities between the United States and Iran, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, April witnessed a profound decoupling of financial assets from geopolitical volatility.
This period was marked by the S&P 500 delivering a 10.5% monthly return, a rare occurrence documented only 13 times in the last half-century, as investors looked past the immediate fog of war to capitalize on the accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out.
The narrative of the month was one of structural economic resilience, where robust corporate earnings and productivity-enhancing business investment countered the headwinds of double-digit energy inflation and a hawkish shift in global monetary expectations.
Read full blog post: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=49865
Spencer Li (Synapse Trading)
🚨 FINAL CALL: The "Super Bull" is Here. Are You Ready? The markets have officially entered a super bull cycle. This is one of those rare moments in history where the right moves can change your entire year. If you’ve been waiting for a "sign" to start, this…
Final reminder for the last few spots before we close registration tomorrow! 🔥💪🏻💰