JUST IN: The Dow has prolonged its five-day decline to nearly 2,000 points, as the market selloff expands beyond cryptocurrencies. This seems like a typical correction in equities, but Nvidia's earnings release tomorrow could alter the trajectory.
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JUST IN: The CBOE Volatility Index has climbed above 25.63, signaling heightened market uncertainty.
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JUST IN: The cryptocurrency market has rebounded into positive territory, with Bitcoin nearing $94,000 just hours after dropping below $90,000 for the first time in seven months.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump announced that Saudi Arabia has agreed to invest $600 billion in the U.S., adding that the figure could increase.
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JUST IN: The Saudi Crown Prince has announced plans to boost investments in the U.S. up to $1 trillion.
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JUST IN: Trump has begun conducting interviews for the Fed Chair position and indicated that he already knows his preferred choice.
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JUST IN: Japan's 40-year government bond yield has surged to a record high of 3.697%, as markets anticipate further stimulus.
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๐งพ New SF Fed study flips the tariff narrative
A 150-year review of US tariff policy shows a surprising pattern: tariffs push inflation up in the short term, but the recessionary drag that follows is stronger and ends up pulling inflation down over a 1โ3 year window.
๐ Tariffs are both inflationary and recessionary
๐ The recessionary effect dominates over time, lowering inflation
๐ This aligns with what 2025 data already shows
๐ These findings could influence upcoming FOMC decisions
Markets love simple narratives, but this one isnโt that simple. Tariffs may push prices up at first, but the slowdown they trigger ends up mattering a lot more for the Fed.
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A 150-year review of US tariff policy shows a surprising pattern: tariffs push inflation up in the short term, but the recessionary drag that follows is stronger and ends up pulling inflation down over a 1โ3 year window.
๐ Tariffs are both inflationary and recessionary
๐ The recessionary effect dominates over time, lowering inflation
๐ This aligns with what 2025 data already shows
๐ These findings could influence upcoming FOMC decisions
Markets love simple narratives, but this one isnโt that simple. Tariffs may push prices up at first, but the slowdown they trigger ends up mattering a lot more for the Fed.
โ Subscribe to @trade
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โก๏ธ Nvidiaโs Valuation vs The Entire US Energy Sector
Nvidia is now worth almost three times more than the whole US energy sector, yet it doesnโt generate more free cash flow.
Over the past year, the combined free cash flow of energy companies in the S&P 500 came in about twenty percent higher than Nvidiaโs.
๐ Nvidia market cap around 4.6T
๐ US energy sector around 1.7T
๐ Energy sector free cash flow roughly 898B
๐ Nvidia free cash flow around 728B
Tech keeps rewriting the rules, but the chart is a reminder that real infrastructure still powers everything underneath the AI boom.
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Nvidia is now worth almost three times more than the whole US energy sector, yet it doesnโt generate more free cash flow.
Over the past year, the combined free cash flow of energy companies in the S&P 500 came in about twenty percent higher than Nvidiaโs.
๐ Nvidia market cap around 4.6T
๐ US energy sector around 1.7T
๐ Energy sector free cash flow roughly 898B
๐ Nvidia free cash flow around 728B
Tech keeps rewriting the rules, but the chart is a reminder that real infrastructure still powers everything underneath the AI boom.
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JUST IN: Donald Trump shared quotes from Nvidia founder Jensen Huang about the start of Blackwell production, emphasizing that AI was invented, made, and built in America for the world. Huang noted that after less than a year, the company is now manufacturing its most advanced chips.
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JUST IN: US and Russian officials are drafting a new peace plan for Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.
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JUST IN: President Trump says $270 billion worth of agreements are being signed with โdozens of companiesโ today.
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JUST IN: The US Labor Department announces that it is CANCELLING the October jobs report.
For the first time since 2013, we will not be receiving a monthly jobs report.
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For the first time since 2013, we will not be receiving a monthly jobs report.
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JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 futures have extended their gains to +1.5% after Nvidia ($NVDA) exceeded earnings expectations.
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JUST IN: Japan's Nikkei 225 index has surged above 50,000, climbing nearly 4%, amid a rebound in global technology stocks.
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JUST IN: The White House is pressing Congress to reject a proposed measure limiting Nvidia's ability to sell AI chips to China, which would also affect other major chipmakers like AMD. This stance is being called a major victory for Nvidia.
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JUST IN: The White House is pressing Congress to reject a proposed measure limiting Nvidia's ability to sell AI chips to China, which would also affect other major chipmakers like AMD. This stance is being called a major victory for Nvidia.
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Trading is like climbing a mountain for 5 years
to enjoy the view for the rest of your life.
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to enjoy the view for the rest of your life.
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JUST IN: The Nasdaq 100 is extending its rally with gains exceeding 500 points, positioning it for the largest daily increase since May 27. The Magnificent 7 stocks have collectively added nearly $500 billion to their market capitalization today.
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JUST IN: Morgan Stanley has eliminated its forecast for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, now projecting three cuts in 2025 amid stronger payrolls that lower unemployment risks. Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen expects the cuts to occur in January, April, and June.
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