JUST IN: Trump has warned that a government shutdown is likely over disputes on federal spending.

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JUST IN: The probability of a US government shutdown tomorrow has reached a record high of 85%, according to Kalshi.

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JUST IN: Silver has recorded its highest quarterly closing price in history.

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JUST IN: Gold futures have surpassed $3,900 per ounce for the first time ever, coinciding with the onset of the US government shutdown.

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In most areas of life, you can’t afford to be wrong too often.
You can’t be a doctor who keeps misdiagnosing patients.
Or an engineer, and have your bridges collapse half the time.

But trading is different.
You will be wrong a lot.
That’s part of the game.

And if you don’t come to peace with that, you’ll keep fighting the market… or yourself.
This requires traders to reframe their definition of what it means to be wrong.

Being wrong doesn’t mean you’re failing.
It only means you haven’t mastered what really matters yet - risk, mindset, and recovery.

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⚡️ Volatility bets hit 4-year high

Dealers’ net long positions in the VIX have surged to 87,000 contracts, the highest since 2021. Investors are piling into volatility products while dealers hedge with futures.

🟡 $VXX assets +312% YoY, now near $1B
🟡 $UVIX inflows +215% in the same period
🟡 Rush into VIX funds signals rising fear of turbulence

Markets are calm on the surface, but positioning shows players bracing for a storm. The question is when it breaks.

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JUST IN: The US government shutdown has started as funding lapses, halting some federal services and potentially furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Markets are reacting swiftly, with Kalshi forecasting an average of 9.5 days of shutdown this year amid sharply rising volatility.

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💵 Dollar seasonality kicks in

The US Dollar Index is now entering its strongest two-month stretch of the year. Historically, September and October deliver the best performance for the greenback.

🟡 September avg return: +0.62%
🟡 October avg return: +0.69%
🟡 Combined, this two-month window has been the most consistent positive period for the DXY

With the dollar already on track for its weakest year since the 1970s, seasonality could provide a short-term lifeline, or simply clash with the broader downtrend.

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JUST IN: Bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve declined by $21 billion last week, reaching $2.99 trillion, the lowest level since January.

• This marks one of the lowest readings since the first quarter of 2023.
• The drop continues a seventh straight weekly decline amid reduced liquidity in the banking system.
• US banking system reserves serve as a critical indicator of overall financial liquidity.

Banks' falling reserves could signal tighter liquidity conditions, potentially raising investor concerns about economic stability and influencing expectations for Fed interest rate policies, which may pressure short-term market yields and asset valuations.

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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has crossed above 6,700 for the first time in history, less than 24 hours after the government shutdown started. If historical patterns hold, the index could close near 7,600 in 12 months, with strong average returns following past shutdown endings.

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JUST IN: JD Vance stated that he does not believe the government shutdown will last very long.

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JUST IN: Trump announced that he will meet with President Xi of China in four weeks.

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What’s your biggest weakness in trading?

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🥇 Gold

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📈 Japan’s bond yields hit 2008 levels

Japan’s 2Y bond yield just crossed 0.95%, the highest since 2008, while the 10Y is near 1.64%, also close to its 2008 peak.

🟡 The latest 2Y auction saw the weakest demand since 2009.
🟡 Bid-to-cover fell to 2.81 vs a 12-month average of 3.79.
🟡 Markets now price in a possible October BOJ hike.

Investors are demanding higher yields to hold Japanese debt. The BOJ is running out of road.

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JUST IN: An earthquake has rattled buildings in Istanbul, according to a Reuters witness.

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JUST IN: The daily RSI for silver has exceeded 82 for the first time since 2020, a rare signal that has only occurred 5 times since 1987. In 100% of those instances, silver prices ended lower after 9 months, raising questions about whether it is approaching a top.

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💵 Cash is king

Assets in US money market funds have reached a record $7.7 trillion, more than tripling in just 8 years.

🟡 Low-risk yield beats sitting in equities for many.
🟡 Capital inflows accelerated after 2022’s rate hikes.
🟡 Investors are parking cash, not chasing risk.

Liquidity is piling up on the sidelines. The question is when and into what it flows back.

CryptoFlash

JUST IN: Nvidia's stock has surged past $190, positioning the company as the world's first to achieve a $4.6 trillion market capitalization. This marks a $2.5 trillion increase from its April 2025 low.

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JUST IN: House Speaker Johnson has reiterated that there is "nothing to negotiate" on the stopgap funding bill.

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