🌿 Cannabis stocks skyrocket after Trump backs CBD for seniors

Pot stocks ripped higher after President Trump endorsed cannabidiol as a tool for senior healthcare. His administration is also considering reclassifying marijuana, a move that could ease restrictions and cut tax burdens on the sector.

🟡 Tilray +46%, Aurora +29%, Canopy Growth +18%, Cronos +16%
🟡 MSOS ETF +24%, on track for its best quarter ever (+70% YTD)
🟡 Trump called hemp-derived CBD a potential “revolution” for healthcare
🟡 Reclassification from Schedule I to III would lower penalties and allow deductions under tax code 280E

Once written off as a dead trade, cannabis is suddenly back on the table and with political backing, momentum could have more legs.

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🎓 The changing view on college

Back in 2010, 75% of Americans said college was “very important.” Today that number is just 35%.

🟡 1 in 4 without a high school diploma live in poverty
🟡 For those with a bachelor’s degree, it’s 1 in 25
🟡 “Not too important” responses climbed to 24% in 2025, the highest on record

Public perception may be shifting, but the numbers show education still draws the line between stability and poverty.

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JUST IN: The SEC is evaluating proposals to allow stocks to trade similarly to cryptocurrencies.

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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated that his political opponents are conceding defeat, discussed potential resolutions to the Ukraine conflict, and emphasized U.S. military strength in addresses to leaders.

• Trump claimed the political left is giving up due to exhaustion with his campaign.
• He suggested that yesterday could have marked the end of the world's largest war, referring to the Ukraine situation.
• Trump said he knew Putin well and believed the Russian leader underestimated the war's difficulty.
• He advocated for bringing Putin and Zelenskiy together for negotiations.
• Addressing U.S. military leaders, Trump assured them of his full support and commitment.
• Trump pledged to enhance the military's strength and capabilities.
• He expressed hope that nuclear weapons would never be needed.
• Trump recounted a recent Russian threat and his decision to deploy a nuclear submarine in response.
• He told military leaders that the U.S. leads Russia and China by 25 years in submarine technology.
• Trump highlighted that U.S. nuclear submarines are undetectable.

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JUST IN: Donald Trump has pledged to commit over $1 trillion in military spending for 2026.

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JUST IN: The US August job openings reached 7.227 million, exceeding the forecasted 7.185 million.

Higher-than-expected job openings signal robust labor demand, which is bullish for risk assets due to a stronger economy and bullish for the US dollar as it may delay potential interest rate cuts.

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JUST IN: Prediction markets on Kalshi now reflect an 80% chance of a U.S. government shutdown beginning at 12:01 AM on Wednesday, October 1, unless Congress reaches an agreement. White House talks on Monday between President Trump and congressional leaders concluded without any progress.

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🥇 Gold inflows hit record pace

The largest gold ETF, $GLD, has already absorbed $2.3B in September, marking its 7th month of inflows in the last 8.

🟡 YTD inflows stand at $13.4B, the biggest since 2020
🟡 Gold held by bullion-backed ETFs is now at the highest level since mid-2022
🟡 The metal is on track for 7 winning quarters out of the last 8

This isn’t just defensive positioning anymore. Gold is trading like a momentum asset, and the rush shows no signs of slowing.

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JUST IN: Trump has warned that a government shutdown is likely over disputes on federal spending.

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JUST IN: The probability of a US government shutdown tomorrow has reached a record high of 85%, according to Kalshi.

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JUST IN: Silver has recorded its highest quarterly closing price in history.

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JUST IN: Gold futures have surpassed $3,900 per ounce for the first time ever, coinciding with the onset of the US government shutdown.

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In most areas of life, you can’t afford to be wrong too often.
You can’t be a doctor who keeps misdiagnosing patients.
Or an engineer, and have your bridges collapse half the time.

But trading is different.
You will be wrong a lot.
That’s part of the game.

And if you don’t come to peace with that, you’ll keep fighting the market… or yourself.
This requires traders to reframe their definition of what it means to be wrong.

Being wrong doesn’t mean you’re failing.
It only means you haven’t mastered what really matters yet - risk, mindset, and recovery.

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⚡️ Volatility bets hit 4-year high

Dealers’ net long positions in the VIX have surged to 87,000 contracts, the highest since 2021. Investors are piling into volatility products while dealers hedge with futures.

🟡 $VXX assets +312% YoY, now near $1B
🟡 $UVIX inflows +215% in the same period
🟡 Rush into VIX funds signals rising fear of turbulence

Markets are calm on the surface, but positioning shows players bracing for a storm. The question is when it breaks.

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JUST IN: The US government shutdown has started as funding lapses, halting some federal services and potentially furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Markets are reacting swiftly, with Kalshi forecasting an average of 9.5 days of shutdown this year amid sharply rising volatility.

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💵 Dollar seasonality kicks in

The US Dollar Index is now entering its strongest two-month stretch of the year. Historically, September and October deliver the best performance for the greenback.

🟡 September avg return: +0.62%
🟡 October avg return: +0.69%
🟡 Combined, this two-month window has been the most consistent positive period for the DXY

With the dollar already on track for its weakest year since the 1970s, seasonality could provide a short-term lifeline, or simply clash with the broader downtrend.

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JUST IN: Bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve declined by $21 billion last week, reaching $2.99 trillion, the lowest level since January.

• This marks one of the lowest readings since the first quarter of 2023.
• The drop continues a seventh straight weekly decline amid reduced liquidity in the banking system.
• US banking system reserves serve as a critical indicator of overall financial liquidity.

Banks' falling reserves could signal tighter liquidity conditions, potentially raising investor concerns about economic stability and influencing expectations for Fed interest rate policies, which may pressure short-term market yields and asset valuations.

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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has crossed above 6,700 for the first time in history, less than 24 hours after the government shutdown started. If historical patterns hold, the index could close near 7,600 in 12 months, with strong average returns following past shutdown endings.

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JUST IN: JD Vance stated that he does not believe the government shutdown will last very long.

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JUST IN: Trump announced that he will meet with President Xi of China in four weeks.

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What’s your biggest weakness in trading?

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