📉 Yield curve steepening: danger signal

The spread between the 2Y and 30Y US Treasuries has blown out to its widest level in years. Every time this curve went from inversion to +1.25% before, it lined up with brutal bear markets.

🟡 2000s tech bust
🟡 2008 global financial crisis

Those were the only two times in history this exact setup preceded negative equity returns. Now the signal is flashing again.

Not a forecast, but a reminder: when the long end demands a bigger premium, it’s often the market whispering about stress ahead.

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Remember: if you can't see something, don't force it.

Patience.

Great trades will come along.

The hard part is trying no to do anything stupid in between them.

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📉 Negative payrolls on the horizon?

In August, 63% of consumers expected higher unemployment within 12 months - the third-highest reading since 2008. Historically, that has been a leading signal for labor market weakness.

🟡 The 3-month average of payrolls may soon flip negative, falling to -50K to -100K.
🟡 July already showed +35K, the weakest since 2020.
🟡 With constant downward revisions, it’s possible the labor market is already contracting.

Today’s NFP will be critical. A negative print would confirm what the indicators are already warning.

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📈 Mastering NFP Week

NFP drops on the first Friday of each month at 8:30am. The algorithm is designed to build liquidity both above and below price before the release, so the event has fuel to attack and offset.

🟡 Monday to Wednesday are the safest days to trade. Liquidity builds in these ranges.
🟡 Thursday is low probability - unless the setup is obvious.
🟡 Friday is best traded at least 30 minutes after the release, when the manipulation move is usually done.

NFP Friday often takes out the Wednesday or Thursday range high/low before reversing. The edge comes from waiting for the trap to spring and then trading with the follow-through.

Patience pays. Let the market show its hand before you move.

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📉 Yields down, commodities up

US 2-year yields are hitting multi-year lows while commodities push toward all-time highs. That combination signals a macro trade-off:

🟡 Cut rates to keep servicing the debt load
🟡 Let inflation run hotter in the process
🟡 Commodities become the release valve, absorbing the pressure

This is what debt monetization looks like - the bond market weakens, real assets reprice stronger. The squeeze isn’t over.

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❕RRP drops to lowest since 2021

Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility fell to just $21B, the weakest level in over 4 years.

🟡 Usage has collapsed by $2.5T since Dec 2022
🟡 Down another $440B since June 2025
🟡 Institutions are pulling cash to buy the flood of new T-bills

Excess liquidity is drying up as deficit spending soaks up capital. Markets are losing one of their biggest cushions.

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Be content with inactivity.

A+ setups don't come every day.

If you desperately seek action, you put yourself at a disadvantage.

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Addiction makes your world smaller.
Each day fewer things bring joy until only one obsession is left.

Happiness makes your world bigger.
More things bring meaning, not less.

Trade so you can live.
Do not live only to trade.

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Believing in yourself pays the highest wages.

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Price writes the story, news just gives it a title.

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Most traders think more tickers means more opportunity.
In reality it means less focus, less depth, and more mistakes.

Specialization compounds.
Master one setup, one ticker, one strategy and it will pay more than chasing dozens half-heartedly.

The edge is not in watching everything.
It is in knowing one thing better than everyone else.

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Train yourself to last longer than everyone else.

People rarely lose because they lack talent, knowledge or resources.
They lose because they didn’t stick around long enough to find out what could have been.

Breakthroughs rarely come after the first, second or even the third try.
They usually come when everyone else has tapped out.

All you have to do is stay in the game long enough to outlast the 99% who quit before the breakthrough comes.

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JUST IN: Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba announced his resignation as LDP President. He mentioned that a trade agreement was signed between his administration and Donald Trump's, expressing hope that the next administration will ensure its execution.

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Success is less about talent and more about endurance.

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Plan the trade, trade the plan.

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Life doesn’t change.

Your perspective does.

And that changes everything.

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When you don’t know what’s normal in your system, every pullback feels scary, every fast move triggers FOMO, every exit feels uncertain.

Know your numbers.

Confidence comes from proof, not hope.

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🗓 Key events this week

A heavy macro stretch with inflation front and center. Apple kicks things off, but CPI and services PMI will drive positioning.

🟡 Tuesday — Apple iPhone 17 Event + ISM Manufacturing PMI
Apple sets the tone for tech. PMI offers an early read on industrial momentum and Fed expectations.

🟡 Wednesday — US PPI Inflation
Producer prices give the first inflation signal ahead of CPI.

🟡 Thursday — US CPI Inflation + Jobless Claims + ISM Services PMI
The week’s main event. CPI and services PMI shape growth and inflation views, with claims as a labor check.

🟡 Friday — U. Mich Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations
Final read on households and inflation before the Fed blackout window.

This week boils down to whether inflation proves sticky or fading — and how much the Fed can afford to wait.

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📈 How to spot real reversals

Most confuse pullbacks with reversals. ICT’s Change in State of Delivery (CISD) filters the noise and shows when Smart Money flips direction.

🟡 CISD = shift in price delivery. From expansion to consolidation or the other way around.
🟡 It marks intent — when one side of liquidity is finished and the market targets the opposite.
🟡 A real reversal = structure, arrays, and order flow all turning together.

The sequence is simple: first a break in higher-timeframe structure, then PD Arrays stop holding, then an impulsive displacement in the new direction. That’s when you look for entries, often through FVGs.

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