💵 Another $100B in T-bills hits the market

The U.S. Treasury is auctioning a record $100B in 4-week bills this week. Every sale pushes supply higher, and demand is being tested as deficits balloon.

🟡 Federal debt is now approaching $40T
🟡 The annual deficit is running near $2T
🟡 Short-term issuance is breaking records month after month

This is the quiet engine of markets: constant refinancing of short-term debt. It keeps liquidity moving today but compounds rollover risk tomorrow. The bigger the stack of bills, the more sensitive the system becomes to shifts in rates or demand.

Short-dated Treasuries may look “risk-free” on the surface, but they are also the canary in the fiscal mine.

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JUST IN: US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data released.
• Job openings were 7.181 million, below the forecast of 7.38 million and previous 7.437 million.
• Factory orders fell by 1.3%, matching expectations, after a fall of 4.8% previously.

The lower-than-expected job openings could indicate a cooling in the labor market, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations.

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JUST IN: The US unemployment rate now exceeds job openings for the first time since April 2021.

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🍔 The Big Mac Index is flashing a shift

For the first time, Big Macs cost more in developed economies than in developing ones. A simple burger now highlights the widening gap in living costs.

🟡 US prices sit among the highest, alongside Switzerland and the Euro area
🟡 Emerging markets like India, Indonesia, and Malaysia remain far cheaper
🟡 The index shows how currencies and inflation shape purchasing power across borders

Sometimes a burger tells you more about inflation than a central bank speech.

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JUST IN: Trump suggests that tariffs could potentially one day replace the income tax.

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JUST IN: France imposes a €325 million fine on Google.

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If you want to speed up your progression, you need to make a plan.

Once that is done, you need to follow it with an almost scientific detachment.

This means not wasting your time and money on shit trades that aren't part of it.

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📈 Stocks meet Solana on VOOI

Trading $AAPL, $NVDA, SPX or even Mag7 now works gas-free on Solana. And it runs from the same balance that powers your perps on crypto and RWAs.

🟡 Log in with email, Telegram or EVM
🟡 Deposit once
🟡 Instantly trade tokenized equities and indices alongside $SOL, $JUP, $WIF, $BONK, $PYTH

All-in-one, the way it should be.
One balance for all markets.

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📊 4 signs sellers are running out of power

Markets don’t turn just because price looks “cheap”.
They turn when selling pressure breaks down.

🟡 Exhaustion — sellers keep pushing lower, but each drop has less force. The lows get weaker until buyers step in.

🟡 Liquidation cascade — aggressive forced selling hits a wall. Once the liquidations are done, price snaps back hard.

🟡 Absorption — every sell order gets eaten by limit buys. Supply is there, but demand is stronger.

🟡 Depletion — sellers simply run out of fuel. With no more supply, even small buys move price higher.

Understanding these patterns helps you spot when a downtrend is dying and when the real opportunity starts.

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JUST IN: Apple plans to increase iPhone prices for the first time in seven years, according to Morgan Stanley.

• Apple to raise iPhone 17 prices at the September 9 event.
• The new iPhone 17 Air will feature a thinner design and C1 modem.
• It will come with a $100 premium over the iPhone.

This price increase could impact investor expectations positively, suggesting confidence in consumer demand and potentially boosting Apple's valuation.

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💰The US Treasury is buying back another $2B of its own debt.

Call it QE without the Fed, a quiet way to support bond markets while deficits keep climbing.

It’s a reminder that even Washington is now playing both sides of the trade: issuing record supply and retiring it at the same time.

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📉 Yield curve steepening: danger signal

The spread between the 2Y and 30Y US Treasuries has blown out to its widest level in years. Every time this curve went from inversion to +1.25% before, it lined up with brutal bear markets.

🟡 2000s tech bust
🟡 2008 global financial crisis

Those were the only two times in history this exact setup preceded negative equity returns. Now the signal is flashing again.

Not a forecast, but a reminder: when the long end demands a bigger premium, it’s often the market whispering about stress ahead.

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Remember: if you can't see something, don't force it.

Patience.

Great trades will come along.

The hard part is trying no to do anything stupid in between them.

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📉 Negative payrolls on the horizon?

In August, 63% of consumers expected higher unemployment within 12 months - the third-highest reading since 2008. Historically, that has been a leading signal for labor market weakness.

🟡 The 3-month average of payrolls may soon flip negative, falling to -50K to -100K.
🟡 July already showed +35K, the weakest since 2020.
🟡 With constant downward revisions, it’s possible the labor market is already contracting.

Today’s NFP will be critical. A negative print would confirm what the indicators are already warning.

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📈 Mastering NFP Week

NFP drops on the first Friday of each month at 8:30am. The algorithm is designed to build liquidity both above and below price before the release, so the event has fuel to attack and offset.

🟡 Monday to Wednesday are the safest days to trade. Liquidity builds in these ranges.
🟡 Thursday is low probability - unless the setup is obvious.
🟡 Friday is best traded at least 30 minutes after the release, when the manipulation move is usually done.

NFP Friday often takes out the Wednesday or Thursday range high/low before reversing. The edge comes from waiting for the trap to spring and then trading with the follow-through.

Patience pays. Let the market show its hand before you move.

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📉 Yields down, commodities up

US 2-year yields are hitting multi-year lows while commodities push toward all-time highs. That combination signals a macro trade-off:

🟡 Cut rates to keep servicing the debt load
🟡 Let inflation run hotter in the process
🟡 Commodities become the release valve, absorbing the pressure

This is what debt monetization looks like - the bond market weakens, real assets reprice stronger. The squeeze isn’t over.

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❕RRP drops to lowest since 2021

Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility fell to just $21B, the weakest level in over 4 years.

🟡 Usage has collapsed by $2.5T since Dec 2022
🟡 Down another $440B since June 2025
🟡 Institutions are pulling cash to buy the flood of new T-bills

Excess liquidity is drying up as deficit spending soaks up capital. Markets are losing one of their biggest cushions.

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Be content with inactivity.

A+ setups don't come every day.

If you desperately seek action, you put yourself at a disadvantage.

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Addiction makes your world smaller.
Each day fewer things bring joy until only one obsession is left.

Happiness makes your world bigger.
More things bring meaning, not less.

Trade so you can live.
Do not live only to trade.

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Believing in yourself pays the highest wages.

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