If you’re mentally steady and financially intact, you have unlimited chances to recover from losses.

Your only job is to stay consistent.

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📈 US stock valuations at record highs

The composite of major valuation metrics (P/E, CAPE, P/B, Q ratio, market cap to GDP) has reached a new all-time high as of August 25.

Levels now exceed peaks seen in 1929, 1965, and 1999.

🟡 Trailing and forward P/E multiples stretched to extremes

🟡 CAPE ratio and Q ratio both flashing historic highs

🟡 Market trades above 95th percentile on blended valuation measures

Never forget, "this time it’s different"

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🧠 Risk is the first truth in trading

The fastest way to separate amateurs from professionals is by how they manage risk.

It’s not about conviction or luck, it’s about structure, discipline, and survival.

🟡 Amateurs risk too much and pray just to get out alive
🟡 Stops are moved mid-trade, profits are cut too early, emotions run the show
🟡 Focus drifts to PnL numbers instead of price action
🟡 Professionals size from the stop, not from greed
🟡 Plans for exits are set before entry and rarely changed
🟡 Losses don’t shake confidence because the system comes first

Risk is the mirror.
If you respect it, you’re playing the long game.
If you ignore it, you’re just gambling.

In the end, the only edge that compounds is survival.

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📈 Historic inflows into bonds

Investors are piling into safety at record pace. Over the last 4 weeks, global investment-grade bond funds saw $57B of inflows, pushing total bond fund inflows to $97B.

🟡 2025 inflows on track for $700B - new all-time high

🟡 Surpasses the previous record of $620B set during the 2020 recovery

🟡 Similar levels of demand have only appeared in crisis-driven environments

Bond markets are flashing one message: capital is crowding into yield and security, even as equities sit near highs.

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JUST IN: Indian Prime Minister Modi has reportedly declined Donald Trump's calls four times in recent weeks, according to a report by a German newspaper.

CryptoFlash

JUST IN: Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve is contesting her dismissal in court.

CryptoFlash

JUST IN: Donald Trump made several remarks about energy and the economy.

• Trump criticizes windmills and solar panels, saying they negatively affect the country.
• He claims significant progress in the steel industry.
• Government employment is allegedly decreasing, while private sector jobs are rising.
• Trump mentions that a furniture tariff will soon be implemented.

Trump's comments may impact investor confidence, especially in sectors related to renewable energy and international trade policies.

CryptoFlash

The new CEO of Target started as an intern in 2003.

Incredible.

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JUST IN: Donald Trump stated they have plans in mind concerning Putin if necessary and warned that an economic war would negatively impact Russia.

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The market doesn't care about your dreams.
It rewards your skills.

You can complain or you can learn.
Only one pays.

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▶️ Fed power shift in play

Yesterday’s spotlight was on Trump’s push to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move that could flip the balance of power inside the Fed.

🟡 If Cook is out, Trump-appointed Governors would hold 4 of 7 seats (excluding Powell)
🟡 That would give Trump the majority on the board for the first time in history
🟡 With Trump calling for 300 bps of rate cuts, this shift could open the door to aggressive easing
🟡 Cook’s term runs until 2038, making this challenge unprecedented

The Fed has never faced a political reshuffle like this, and the outcome could define the next chapter for US rates and markets.

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💠 AMD vs Nvidia — AI divergence

AMD reported Q2 data center revenue of $3.2B yesterday, up just 14% YoY, not much in an AI market chasing exponential growth.

🟡 Nvidia earnings due today
🟡 Street looking for $45B+ revenue
🟡 $40B+ from data centers, +50% YoY

AMD is steady, Nvidia is parabolic.
Tonight’s print is more than one stock, it’s a stress test for the whole AI trade.

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JUST IN: The European Union plans to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods to address President Trump's requirements. In return, the US may reduce tariffs on cars imported from the EU.

CryptoFlash

📈 False breakouts and liquidity traps

A breakout isn’t confirmed by price alone, it’s confirmed by liquidity.

The common pattern:

🟡 Price breaks a key level with high volume → everyone piles in
🟡 Retrace happens on thinner volume → looks harmless at first
🟡 Positions unwind fast → reversal wipes out late buyers

What’s really happening: large players use the breakout to unload size into eager breakout traders. Once that liquidity is absorbed, the move has no fuel, and price collapses.

False breakouts matter because they show who’s trapped. When volume and follow-through don’t align, it’s often a signal of smart money exiting, not entering.

Lesson: watch the quality of volume, not just the candles. A clean breakout without sustained liquidity is often the setup for the next dump.

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📊 Nvidia vs the world

$NVDA would need another $800B in market cap to surpass the entire Nikkei, the world’s second largest stock market.

It’s already bigger than the GDP of Germany, the UK, France, and Italy.

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🐻 Peter Schiff does it again

In 2018, he warned Bitcoin could fall to $3,800. Yesterday, he said the next stop is $75K.

🟡 BTC dropped below $109K, down 13% in two weeks
🟡 Schiff calls for $75K as the next target, just under MSTR’s average cost
🟡 Same man once said even $750 would be “expensive”

Some things never change: Bitcoin climbs, Schiff stays bearish, and the market keeps ignoring him, until one day it doesn’t.

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Less but better trades = more wins

Less stocks on your watchlist = more focus

Less risk per trade = more calmness

Less technical indicators = more signal clarity

In trading, less is more.

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📈 Japan flips the script

For the first time in 48 years, Japan’s core CPI has moved above the US.

July came in at 3.4% vs 3.1% in the US - one of Japan’s highest readings since the 1980s.

Core inflation has now sat above the BoJ’s 2% target for 40 straight months. Yields followed: the 30-year JGB just hit 3.24%, the highest ever.

After decades of deflation talk, Japan is now exporting inflation, and staring down a restructuring it’s avoided for half a century.

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JUST IN: Analysts raise target prices for NVIDIA.

• JPMorgan increased its target to $215 from $170.
• Rosenblatt adjusted its target to $215 from $200.
• Benchmark set a new target at $220, up from $190.
• BofA Securities raised its target to $235 from $220.
• Citi lifted its target to $215 from $170.
• Jefferies increased its target to $205 from $200.
• KeyBanc now aims for $230, up from $215.
• DA Davidson raised its target to $195 from $135.
• Truist Securities increased its target to $228 from $210.

The series of target price increases could signal positive investor sentiment, potentially boosting NVIDIA's stock value.

CryptoFlash

🥈 Silver’s supply crunch

Unlike past cycles, producers aren’t ramping up despite higher prices. Decades of underinvestment mean there are no major new mines coming online to ease the squeeze.

🟡 Mexico is the “Saudi Arabia” of silver, supplying ~25% of global output
🟡 Production there has been in multi-year decline
🟡 No new projects on the horizon to shift supply

The imbalance isn’t just about silver, other metals face the same shortage. That’s why this mining cycle could run longer and harder than previous ones.

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JUST IN: Nvidia's CEO Huang is discussing with the Trump administration the sale of advanced Blackwell AI chips to China. He is ready to offer the US government a portion of those sales and desires US tech to become a global benchmark akin to the US dollar.

CryptoFlash