The deeper you go, the stranger markets become:

You aren't predicting prices.

You're reacting to human behavior, which is shaped by expectations about prices, which are shaped by human behavior.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Revolut reports a service disruption affecting multiple services, saying customer funds and data are safe.

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❕ Put Option Volume Surges

S&P 500 put option volume surged to a record $3.3 trillion on Friday.

The US dollar value of puts traded was 330% above the 2024 average. Before the 2020 pandemic, daily volumes ranged from $100 billion to $500 billion.

CBOE put volume reached 9.6 million contracts, the 4th-highest since 2015. Investors aggressively bought puts into Friday’s close.

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US homebuilder sentiment has absolutely crashed to its lowest level in 14.5 years, with the average 30yr mortgage rate at 7.4% and the housing market paralyzed.

It is a sharp shift from earlier this year, when homebuilders expected rate cuts.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Talks between Iran and the US continue, but reports that a deal is near are untrue, a negotiator says.

Brent erased half of its earlier decline.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The US will offer Putin a meeting with Zelensky and Trump.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Most of Anthropic's amount is not cash. About $72B comes from non-cash convertible-note and other financing adjustments that grow with valuation, leaving roughly $8.7B.

The draft S-1 shows $16.3B in first-half revenue versus $1.1B a year earlier, with 20% from two customers, and an IPO tentatively set for November at around $2 trillion.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Elon Musk says merging Tesla and SpaceX would be a good idea.

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⚡️ JUST IN: SpaceX crushes Q3 with $14.6B, up 161%, as Musk eyes 100,000 Starlinks and $1T in revenue.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Elon Musk says SpaceX, $SPCX, and Tesla, $TSLA, formed committees to discuss a potential merger.

Musk said combining the companies has “a lot of merit,” but shareholders must support the idea.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The Pentagon targets its first clean audit in 2028 after failing eight in a row, per Hegset.

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You will level up your trading when you realize that doing nothing is doing something.

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The myth. The legend. He did it again.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Putin and US envoy Witkoff conclude Ukraine peace talks in Russia as Witkoff returns to Oslo to brief Zelenskyy.

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If you think oil prices will crash after the Iran war ends, think again: Brent's December 2028 futures price just broke an all-time high.

More than 2 billion barrels of oil were removed from the market, emergency stocks drained, and governments will eventually bid for barrels to refill them.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Meta ($META) ordered by a New Mexico court to pay $25 billion in penalties over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

A jury found Meta liable for misleading people about how it safeguards and collects user data.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The State Department is preparing to announce the evacuation of diplomats and their families from some Gulf countries.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Meta beats revenue at $64.6B, but operating income falls to $12.99B vs $20.85B expected. $META

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⚡️ JUST IN: The US and Israel are considering new strikes on Iran immediately after the US midterm elections, according to NYT.

Netanyahu planned a new bombing campaign at the beginning of this month, but Trump opposed resuming active hostilities before the elections, Financial Times reported.

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‼️ Oil Shipping Costs Surge

Everyone's focused on the price of oil, but what about the price of moving it?

The cost to ship oil is 7x higher than a year ago. A new GS report says freight rates have topped $20/barrel.

🟢 $7: Hormuz war-risk premiums

🟢 $4: Tankers tied up transferring oil outside the Gulf

🟢 $4: Higher ship fuel costs

🟢 $3: Rerouting and inefficient shipping

🟢 $2: Iran's blocked tanker fleet

With Hormuz attacks continuing daily, these prices aren't coming down anytime soon.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses to -2% after Trump says US is not negotiating with Iran and “something” will happen “fair soon.”

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