⚡️ JUST IN: France to impose partial curfews following widespread protests and riots.

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⚡️ JUST IN: China says it is ready to strengthen cooperation with Iran.

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Traders are betting on more volatility ahead, with VIX call options near 2-year highs, suggesting markets may be underpricing upcoming uncertainty before a crazy week.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi accuses Europe of supporting the US-Israeli war against Iran.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump administration bans US government agencies from purchasing Chinese AI DeepSeek products.

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⚡️ JUST IN: US inflation is showing renewed pressure after months of improvement, Kevin Hassett warns the acceleration may be temporary or signal a break from disinflation.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Qatar plans to build two power plants in Lebanon and sign a 20-year natural gas supply deal.

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US bank stocks are collapsing. Bank Index losses hit six straight weeks, longest since 2008, while S&P underperformance reached 18 of 21 days, unprecedented since 1992.

The AI buildout was supposed to be a revenue opportunity, but rising funding costs for AI companies are adding stress, making this the warning signal.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump tells Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu he is the person he wants by his side.

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⚡️ JUST IN: France announces a partial curfew and a protest ban for 2 nights.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Yemen's Houthis say they carried out 6 military operations against Saudi Arabia in the past 48 hours.

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You literally can't trust any news about the Iran war.

Within hours of each other:

🟢 Breakthrough in Iran / US negotiations

🟢 US considering striking Kharg Island

Meanwhile oil is spiking up and down because apparently traders have the memory of a goldfish.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran warns that 7 major global internet and data cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz could become its next targets.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Anthropic is in talks to buy $45 billion in computing power from Nscale, per Bloomberg.

A deal could be finalized in the coming days and would bolster Nscale’s IPO prospects.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says New Mexico should become “New America” to boost its prestige.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump issues a statement thanking Elon Musk for committing to donate one share of SpaceX, $SPCX, per American child through Trump Accounts.

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The deeper you go, the stranger markets become:

You aren't predicting prices.

You're reacting to human behavior, which is shaped by expectations about prices, which are shaped by human behavior.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Revolut reports a service disruption affecting multiple services, saying customer funds and data are safe.

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❕ Put Option Volume Surges

S&P 500 put option volume surged to a record $3.3 trillion on Friday.

The US dollar value of puts traded was 330% above the 2024 average. Before the 2020 pandemic, daily volumes ranged from $100 billion to $500 billion.

CBOE put volume reached 9.6 million contracts, the 4th-highest since 2015. Investors aggressively bought puts into Friday’s close.

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US homebuilder sentiment has absolutely crashed to its lowest level in 14.5 years, with the average 30yr mortgage rate at 7.4% and the housing market paralyzed.

It is a sharp shift from earlier this year, when homebuilders expected rate cuts.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Talks between Iran and the US continue, but reports that a deal is near are untrue, a negotiator says.

Brent erased half of its earlier decline.

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