🥇 Gold Buying May Be Underreported

World central banks bought +44 tonnes of gold in July, 158% above the pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs.

The 3-month average rose to +91 tonnes, near its highest since mid-2025. The 12-month moving average has stayed between +50 and +60 tonnes in recent months.

Official data showed only +23 tonnes purchased in July, 21 tonnes below actual levels. Official monthly purchases have not topped +60 tonnes since November 2024, suggesting central bank gold demand may be far greater than reported.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: OpenAI seeks $30bn at a $1.4tn valuation. ARR: $70bn, Anthropic: ~$86bn.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US does not want to cooperate closely with China on AI.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

Michael Burry, shorting the bull run alongside 320k subscribers, now calls for a crash “for humanity’s good” to prevent OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

You don't need to know the future to profit from it.

You only need an asymmetric relationship between risk and reward.

That's an extraordinary concept.

You can be wrong about the next trade and still be right about the system.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

Compared with US M2 supply, Nasdaq is now more overvalued than during the 2000 dot-com bubble.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: US officially withdraws all forces from Iraq, ending 23 years of military involvement.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

💸 Treasury Gives Up

On April 9th, 2025, Trump announced a “tariff pause” as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.60%. Days later, he said he had been watching the bond market, which drove his decision to pause the trade war.

Today, the 10Y Note Yield is +70 basis points above the April 2025 high. It seems the US Treasury has given up for now.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: 🇦🇪 Flydubai co-pilot reportedly stabbed the pilot multiple times and attempted to send the plane into a nosedive.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: The second Flydubai passenger plane bound for Tel Aviv, Israel, turns around mid-flight.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Israel demands FlyDubai halt all flights to the country.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, fell to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%.

Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points each.

October rate hike odds are falling again.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

The positive correlation between oil prices and US government bond yields rose to a 36-year high, FT reports.

On September 15, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump was to blame for rising oil prices when asked why 10-year yields were rising so quickly.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

CME FedWatch data shows traders pricing a 70%+ chance of a Fed rate hike on October 28.

The Fed has never hiked in October before US elections, but markets are betting on it.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

A random account, abandoned since 2013, tweeted “Stop ChatGPT” in October 2012, before ChatGPT appeared in 2018.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

McDonald’s uses AI to analyze millions of orders, rival prices and local willingness to pay, calculating how much money it can extract from customers.

The same Big Mac cost $5.69 and $6.89 in restaurants 3.2 km apart, a 21% difference.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: The probability of no Fed rate hike in 4 weeks has reached 65%, according to Polymarket traders.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

Commodity prices are skyrocketing.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up +37.3% YoY, near its largest 12-month increase since the 2022 energy crisis. It tracks 25 exchange-traded futures contracts across energy, metals, and agriculture.

The index is up +32% year-to-date, exceeding its increase before the 2008 Financial Crisis.

The Bloomberg Commodity Subindex jumped +44.9% YoY, its largest 12-month increase since 2022. Commodity inflation is making a powerful comeback.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

Despite the seemingly positive calendar, monthly dynamics versus previous periods provide a broader picture.

The methodology change creates a higher YoY base and lower figure, which FOMC will treat as technical.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

Traders don't always hold losing positions because they believe in the thesis.

They hold because closing it means admitting they were wrong.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash

In a TIME interview, Trump said high rates hurt the economy more than inflation and does not blame Warsh.

✅@futures

CryptoFlash