โก๏ธ JUST IN: JUST IN: US official says Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and unfreeze assets for nuclear progress with Iran.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โธ Real Yields Drive Market Risk
US10Y yields at 5.23%, moving in sync with TIPS, are a market factor that cannot be ignored. Treating this as another inflation spike to trade through currencies, metals, or equities would be a mistake.
The synchronized move points to a problem in real yields, not inflation expectations. That is worse for markets. As real yields rise sharply, assets can diverge. Gold may decouple before aggressively catching up.
USD may also detach from the monetary backdrop and establish its own trend. As Worsh said, judge markets by their actual reaction, not by how they might respond to Fed rhetoric.
The 5.23% and 2.88% setup means upcoming inflation or labor-market data could trigger seemingly illogical moves. Sharp yield breaks either way may bring delayed reactions but aggressive intraday trends. Watch USD catching up if Fridayโs labor-market data are weak and the previous NFP is revised.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
US10Y yields at 5.23%, moving in sync with TIPS, are a market factor that cannot be ignored. Treating this as another inflation spike to trade through currencies, metals, or equities would be a mistake.
The synchronized move points to a problem in real yields, not inflation expectations. That is worse for markets. As real yields rise sharply, assets can diverge. Gold may decouple before aggressively catching up.
USD may also detach from the monetary backdrop and establish its own trend. As Worsh said, judge markets by their actual reaction, not by how they might respond to Fed rhetoric.
The 5.23% and 2.88% setup means upcoming inflation or labor-market data could trigger seemingly illogical moves. Sharp yield breaks either way may bring delayed reactions but aggressive intraday trends. Watch USD catching up if Fridayโs labor-market data are weak and the previous NFP is revised.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment for US sanctions relief, Al Hadath reports. Brent fell below $101 again.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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The world is printing money at an absolutely wild pace. Global money supply hit an all-time high of $103.66 trillion.
The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and PBoC added $1 trillion in August, marking 10 straight months of growth. Bitcoin and crypto are closing the gap.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and PBoC added $1 trillion in August, marking 10 straight months of growth. Bitcoin and crypto are closing the gap.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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๐ฅ Gold Buying May Be Underreported
World central banks bought +44 tonnes of gold in July, 158% above the pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs.
The 3-month average rose to +91 tonnes, near its highest since mid-2025. The 12-month moving average has stayed between +50 and +60 tonnes in recent months.
Official data showed only +23 tonnes purchased in July, 21 tonnes below actual levels. Official monthly purchases have not topped +60 tonnes since November 2024, suggesting central bank gold demand may be far greater than reported.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
World central banks bought +44 tonnes of gold in July, 158% above the pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs.
The 3-month average rose to +91 tonnes, near its highest since mid-2025. The 12-month moving average has stayed between +50 and +60 tonnes in recent months.
Official data showed only +23 tonnes purchased in July, 21 tonnes below actual levels. Official monthly purchases have not topped +60 tonnes since November 2024, suggesting central bank gold demand may be far greater than reported.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: OpenAI seeks $30bn at a $1.4tn valuation. ARR: $70bn, Anthropic: ~$86bn.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Trump says the US does not want to cooperate closely with China on AI.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Michael Burry, shorting the bull run alongside 320k subscribers, now calls for a crash โfor humanityโs goodโ to prevent OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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You don't need to know the future to profit from it.
You only need an asymmetric relationship between risk and reward.
That's an extraordinary concept.
You can be wrong about the next trade and still be right about the system.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
You only need an asymmetric relationship between risk and reward.
That's an extraordinary concept.
You can be wrong about the next trade and still be right about the system.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Compared with US M2 supply, Nasdaq is now more overvalued than during the 2000 dot-com bubble.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: US officially withdraws all forces from Iraq, ending 23 years of military involvement.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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๐ธ Treasury Gives Up
On April 9th, 2025, Trump announced a โtariff pauseโ as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.60%. Days later, he said he had been watching the bond market, which drove his decision to pause the trade war.
Today, the 10Y Note Yield is +70 basis points above the April 2025 high. It seems the US Treasury has given up for now.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
On April 9th, 2025, Trump announced a โtariff pauseโ as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.60%. Days later, he said he had been watching the bond market, which drove his decision to pause the trade war.
Today, the 10Y Note Yield is +70 basis points above the April 2025 high. It seems the US Treasury has given up for now.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: ๐ฆ๐ช Flydubai co-pilot reportedly stabbed the pilot multiple times and attempted to send the plane into a nosedive.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: The second Flydubai passenger plane bound for Tel Aviv, Israel, turns around mid-flight.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, fell to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%.
Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points each.
October rate hike odds are falling again.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points each.
October rate hike odds are falling again.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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The positive correlation between oil prices and US government bond yields rose to a 36-year high, FT reports.
On September 15, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump was to blame for rising oil prices when asked why 10-year yields were rising so quickly.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
On September 15, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump was to blame for rising oil prices when asked why 10-year yields were rising so quickly.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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CME FedWatch data shows traders pricing a 70%+ chance of a Fed rate hike on October 28.
The Fed has never hiked in October before US elections, but markets are betting on it.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The Fed has never hiked in October before US elections, but markets are betting on it.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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A random account, abandoned since 2013, tweeted โStop ChatGPTโ in October 2012, before ChatGPT appeared in 2018.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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McDonaldโs uses AI to analyze millions of orders, rival prices and local willingness to pay, calculating how much money it can extract from customers.
The same Big Mac cost $5.69 and $6.89 in restaurants 3.2 km apart, a 21% difference.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The same Big Mac cost $5.69 and $6.89 in restaurants 3.2 km apart, a 21% difference.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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