⚠️ Key Events This Week

A busy week features inflation, growth, manufacturing and jobs.

🔴 Tuesday
● September Consumer Confidence data
● August JOLTS Job Openings data

Confidence tracks sentiment; JOLTS measures job openings.

🔴 Wednesday
● August PCE Inflation data
● US Q2 2026 GDP data

PCE tracks inflation; GDP measures economic output.

🔴 Thursday
● September ISM Manufacturing PMI data

ISM Manufacturing PMI gauges factory activity.

🔴 Friday
● September Jobs Report

The Jobs Report covers payrolls and unemployment.

🔴 Throughout the week
● Total of 22 Fed Speaker Events This Week

Fed speakers provide views on monetary policy.

Main focus: Wednesday PCE Inflation and Friday Jobs Report

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Nvidia, $NVDA, is launching the largest stock buyback in US history, worth $235 billion.

Its board approved a $150 billion increase, bringing the total buyback authorization to $235 billion.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: The US and China announce a “30-for-30” trade deal, cutting tariffs on $30 billion of goods each.

China's list covers 1,619 categories of American products, while the US list contains 77 categories of Chinese goods. China will also import at least 10 million metric tonnes of US coal in 2027 and 2028, bringing the deal's total value to $60 billion.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: JUST IN: US official says Trump is prepared to ease sanctions and unfreeze assets for nuclear progress with Iran.

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CryptoFlash

Crypto exactly 10 years ago.

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CryptoFlash

⏸ Real Yields Drive Market Risk

US10Y yields at 5.23%, moving in sync with TIPS, are a market factor that cannot be ignored. Treating this as another inflation spike to trade through currencies, metals, or equities would be a mistake.

The synchronized move points to a problem in real yields, not inflation expectations. That is worse for markets. As real yields rise sharply, assets can diverge. Gold may decouple before aggressively catching up.

USD may also detach from the monetary backdrop and establish its own trend. As Worsh said, judge markets by their actual reaction, not by how they might respond to Fed rhetoric.

The 5.23% and 2.88% setup means upcoming inflation or labor-market data could trigger seemingly illogical moves. Sharp yield breaks either way may bring delayed reactions but aggressive intraday trends. Watch USD catching up if Friday’s labor-market data are weak and the previous NFP is revised.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment for US sanctions relief, Al Hadath reports. Brent fell below $101 again.

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CryptoFlash

The world is printing money at an absolutely wild pace. Global money supply hit an all-time high of $103.66 trillion.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and PBoC added $1 trillion in August, marking 10 straight months of growth. Bitcoin and crypto are closing the gap.

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CryptoFlash

🥇 Gold Buying May Be Underreported

World central banks bought +44 tonnes of gold in July, 158% above the pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs.

The 3-month average rose to +91 tonnes, near its highest since mid-2025. The 12-month moving average has stayed between +50 and +60 tonnes in recent months.

Official data showed only +23 tonnes purchased in July, 21 tonnes below actual levels. Official monthly purchases have not topped +60 tonnes since November 2024, suggesting central bank gold demand may be far greater than reported.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: OpenAI seeks $30bn at a $1.4tn valuation. ARR: $70bn, Anthropic: ~$86bn.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US does not want to cooperate closely with China on AI.

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CryptoFlash

Michael Burry, shorting the bull run alongside 320k subscribers, now calls for a crash “for humanity’s good” to prevent OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.

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CryptoFlash

You don't need to know the future to profit from it.

You only need an asymmetric relationship between risk and reward.

That's an extraordinary concept.

You can be wrong about the next trade and still be right about the system.

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CryptoFlash

Compared with US M2 supply, Nasdaq is now more overvalued than during the 2000 dot-com bubble.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: US officially withdraws all forces from Iraq, ending 23 years of military involvement.

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CryptoFlash

💸 Treasury Gives Up

On April 9th, 2025, Trump announced a “tariff pause” as the 10Y Note Yield hit 4.60%. Days later, he said he had been watching the bond market, which drove his decision to pause the trade war.

Today, the 10Y Note Yield is +70 basis points above the April 2025 high. It seems the US Treasury has given up for now.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: 🇦🇪 Flydubai co-pilot reportedly stabbed the pilot multiple times and attempted to send the plane into a nosedive.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: The second Flydubai passenger plane bound for Tel Aviv, Israel, turns around mid-flight.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: Israel demands FlyDubai halt all flights to the country.

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CryptoFlash

⚡️ JUST IN: US August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, fell to 3.4%, below expectations of 3.7%.

Core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.3%. July headline and core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points each.

October rate hike odds are falling again.

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CryptoFlash

The positive correlation between oil prices and US government bond yields rose to a 36-year high, FT reports.

On September 15, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump was to blame for rising oil prices when asked why 10-year yields were rising so quickly.

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CryptoFlash