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๐ Will AI Giants' IPOs Shake Financial Markets?
Some fear the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI this year could trigger a US market crash, recalling the dot-com bubble burst.
The five largest dot-com IPOs raised only 0.0032% of US market cap while Nasdaq soared from 500 to 4750. The crash followed founders unlocking shares 6-12 months after IPO peaks, suggesting a similar delay before AI IPOs impact markets.
Together, these AI IPOs aim to raise at least $220 billion, about 0.33% of the $68 trillion US market cap - over 100 times more than dot-com IPOs combined.
Google has already issued $85 billion in shares to capitalize on current liquidity.
The key question: will the market react immediately or after the lockup period ends?
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
Some fear the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI this year could trigger a US market crash, recalling the dot-com bubble burst.
The five largest dot-com IPOs raised only 0.0032% of US market cap while Nasdaq soared from 500 to 4750. The crash followed founders unlocking shares 6-12 months after IPO peaks, suggesting a similar delay before AI IPOs impact markets.
Together, these AI IPOs aim to raise at least $220 billion, about 0.33% of the $68 trillion US market cap - over 100 times more than dot-com IPOs combined.
Google has already issued $85 billion in shares to capitalize on current liquidity.
The key question: will the market react immediately or after the lockup period ends?
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Juan Hernandez, a Mexican welder who joined SpaceX in 2015 earning $28 per hour, could become a millionaire after its IPO.
He received a $10,000 stock option and kept buying shares with each paycheck, selling some in 2020 to buy Texas real estate, while his remaining shares are now worth about $880,000.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
He received a $10,000 stock option and kept buying shares with each paycheck, selling some in 2020 to buy Texas real estate, while his remaining shares are now worth about $880,000.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Trump says Iran shot down an American Apache Helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz and the US must respond.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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You have two jobs as a trader:
1) Taking good trades
2) Avoiding bad trades
most only focus on 1)
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
1) Taking good trades
2) Avoiding bad trades
most only focus on 1)
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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๐ Historic Performance Gap in US Tech Stocks
The performance gap in US tech stocks hit historic levels. The top 20% outperformed the bottom 20% by about 120 percentage points over the last 3 months, the second-highest ever.
This nearly matches the 135 percentage points peak during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Over the past year, the spread has quadrupled, surpassing the 1999โ2000 surge.
Top 20% tech stocks returned +110% in 3 months, near February 2000 levels. The bottom 20% posted -10%. This rally is unusually concentrated among the best performers.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The performance gap in US tech stocks hit historic levels. The top 20% outperformed the bottom 20% by about 120 percentage points over the last 3 months, the second-highest ever.
This nearly matches the 135 percentage points peak during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Over the past year, the spread has quadrupled, surpassing the 1999โ2000 surge.
Top 20% tech stocks returned +110% in 3 months, near February 2000 levels. The bottom 20% posted -10%. This rally is unusually concentrated among the best performers.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Trump says Iranโs military is a complete and total mess, claiming its navy and air force doesnโt even exist anymore and warning Tehran will have to pay the price after taking too long to negotiate.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: May CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, the highest since April 2023.
Core CPI inflation climbs to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025.
Inflation in the US is back above 4%, more than double the Fed's target, increasing the odds of rate hikes.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
Core CPI inflation climbs to 2.9%, the highest since September 2025.
Inflation in the US is back above 4%, more than double the Fed's target, increasing the odds of rate hikes.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Trump says "I love the inflation" after US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%.
He also claims the US has taken oil from Iran, including 22 ships last night.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
He also claims the US has taken oil from Iran, including 22 ships last night.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Trump says he directed the US Military to carry out a secret mission in the Strait of Hormuz that led to over 100 million barrels of crude oil passing through.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Most traders donโt lose because they canโt find good setups.
They lose because they cannot tolerate being flat long enough for those setups to appear.
Doing nothing is an active decision to protect capital while conditions are low probability.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
They lose because they cannot tolerate being flat long enough for those setups to appear.
Doing nothing is an active decision to protect capital while conditions are low probability.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Iran says the latest US strikes have made the ceasefire practically meaningless and warns it is determined to neutralize the origin of attacks.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Gold may have ended its expansive bull trend, similar to the 2008 - 2012 rise, according to the 200MA chart.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: Trump says the US will hit Iran VERY HARD TONIGHT and threatens future strikes on Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure to control Iranโs oil and gas markets.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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๐ซ๐ท Monaco Harbor Crowded with Billionaires and Luxury Yachts
Billionaires filled Monaco's harbor during the latest Formula 1 stage, with over 200 luxury yachts docked. Guests included Prince Albert II, Kim Kardashian, Michael Douglas, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Donald Trump Jr..
Some superyachts carried exclusive hypercars like Koenigsegg and Bugatti, each worth about $5 million.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
Billionaires filled Monaco's harbor during the latest Formula 1 stage, with over 200 luxury yachts docked. Guests included Prince Albert II, Kim Kardashian, Michael Douglas, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Donald Trump Jr..
Some superyachts carried exclusive hypercars like Koenigsegg and Bugatti, each worth about $5 million.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Trump canceled the planned bombings of Iran from a few hours ago and is now conducting peaceful negotiations with Iran.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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๐ SpaceX Set for Historic IPO Tomorrow
SpaceX is 16 hours away from the largest IPO ever.
It should close with a market cap above $2 trillion, ranking as the 7th largest public company worldwide.
All eyes are on SpaceX as it happens.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
SpaceX is 16 hours away from the largest IPO ever.
It should close with a market cap above $2 trillion, ranking as the 7th largest public company worldwide.
All eyes are on SpaceX as it happens.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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Everyone is ready for the outcome.
Fewer people want the identity required to hold it.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
Fewer people want the identity required to hold it.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โก๏ธ JUST IN: The reported US-Iran framework would exchange a 60-day regional ceasefire and phased sanctions relief for renewed nuclear talks, including a ceasefire in Lebanon and reopening Hormuz without tolls.
The US would lift the naval blockade and waive Iran oil sanctions for 60 days, while Iran would receive $24B during negotiations and pledge no nuclear weapons, with talks excluding the missile program.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The US would lift the naval blockade and waive Iran oil sanctions for 60 days, while Iran would receive $24B during negotiations and pledge no nuclear weapons, with talks excluding the missile program.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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โ Rising Treasury Yields Pose Major Risk to Stocks
The 3-month correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 has dropped to -0.62, the lowest in 15 years. Rising yields now strongly coincide with falling stocks.
During the 2022 bear market, this correlation never fell below -0.50. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, yields and equities moved together, backed by growth and earnings expectations.
Today, rising yields reflect inflation fears, pressuring stock valuations instead of signaling strength. The bond market remains a key indicator.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
The 3-month correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 has dropped to -0.62, the lowest in 15 years. Rising yields now strongly coincide with falling stocks.
During the 2022 bear market, this correlation never fell below -0.50. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, yields and equities moved together, backed by growth and earnings expectations.
Today, rising yields reflect inflation fears, pressuring stock valuations instead of signaling strength. The bond market remains a key indicator.
โ @futures
CryptoFlash
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