📊 Stocks vs inflation over the last 50 years
A simple long-term comparison puts inflation and equities into perspective.
Over the past 50 years:
⚪️ US inflation (CPI): up 6x
⚪️ S&P 500 dividends: up 21x
⚪️ S&P 500 total return: up 265x
The takeaway is straightforward. Over long periods, equities have historically outpaced inflation by a wide margin.
Time in the market tends to do the heavy lifting.
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CryptoFlash
A simple long-term comparison puts inflation and equities into perspective.
Over the past 50 years:
⚪️ US inflation (CPI): up 6x
⚪️ S&P 500 dividends: up 21x
⚪️ S&P 500 total return: up 265x
The takeaway is straightforward. Over long periods, equities have historically outpaced inflation by a wide margin.
Time in the market tends to do the heavy lifting.
💧 Sponsored by @rainbetcom - rainbet.com
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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📊 US jobless claims come in below expectations
Initial US jobless claims totaled 213,000, slightly below the 215,000 expected.
Jobless claims track how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week.
Lower readings usually signal a stronger labor market, since fewer workers are losing jobs.
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CryptoFlash
Initial US jobless claims totaled 213,000, slightly below the 215,000 expected.
Jobless claims track how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week.
Lower readings usually signal a stronger labor market, since fewer workers are losing jobs.
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✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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⚡️ JUST IN: Donald Trump said the U.S. should help shape Iran’s leadership.
He warned against a hard-line successor such as Mojtaba Khamenei.
He says Iran needs a leader who brings “harmony and peace.”
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CryptoFlash
He warned against a hard-line successor such as Mojtaba Khamenei.
He says Iran needs a leader who brings “harmony and peace.”
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CryptoFlash
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⚡️ Trump: People are loving what's happening... Cuba is going to fall too.
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CryptoFlash
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CryptoFlash
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⚡️ JUST IN: The Trump Administration is preparing a rule that would restrict AI chip shipments globally without US approval.
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CryptoFlash
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CryptoFlash
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Trading is 1% strategy and 99% not losing your mind when the 1% hits SL.
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CryptoFlash
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CryptoFlash
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❕ Up to $7B per day in losses from Strait of Hormuz blockade
Countries are losing up to $7B per day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains.
The conflict with Iran is already hitting oil shipments to China. Besides Iran, China also imports large volumes from Saudi Arabia. According to FT, Saudi Arabia has around two weeks before it may need to cut oil production.
With exports restricted, Gulf producers are now filling up storage as shipments through Hormuz stall.
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CryptoFlash
Countries are losing up to $7B per day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains.
The conflict with Iran is already hitting oil shipments to China. Besides Iran, China also imports large volumes from Saudi Arabia. According to FT, Saudi Arabia has around two weeks before it may need to cut oil production.
With exports restricted, Gulf producers are now filling up storage as shipments through Hormuz stall.
💧 Sponsored by @rainbetcom - rainbet.com
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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📊 US February jobs report signals labor market cooling
The latest US labor market data came in mixed, with job growth sharply missing expectations while wage growth stayed firm.
● Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs +59K expected
● Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
● Average hourly earnings: +0.4% M/M vs +0.3% expected
● Average hourly earnings: +3.8% Y/Y vs +3.7% expected
Nonfarm Payrolls measure how many jobs were added or lost across the US economy, excluding farming. A negative print signals contraction in hiring.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.4% suggests the labor market is starting to soften, but wage growth remaining strong indicates inflation pressure from salaries is still present.
For markets, weaker employment with still rising wages complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook on rate cuts.
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CryptoFlash
The latest US labor market data came in mixed, with job growth sharply missing expectations while wage growth stayed firm.
● Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs +59K expected
● Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
● Average hourly earnings: +0.4% M/M vs +0.3% expected
● Average hourly earnings: +3.8% Y/Y vs +3.7% expected
Nonfarm Payrolls measure how many jobs were added or lost across the US economy, excluding farming. A negative print signals contraction in hiring.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.4% suggests the labor market is starting to soften, but wage growth remaining strong indicates inflation pressure from salaries is still present.
For markets, weaker employment with still rising wages complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook on rate cuts.
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✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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Trump says "there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender."
US oil prices immediately surge to a 2-year high.
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CryptoFlash
US oil prices immediately surge to a 2-year high.
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CryptoFlash
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US oil prices surge above $90/barrel, up +14% on the day, now at the highest level since October 2023.
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CryptoFlash
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✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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🎙 Stan Druckenmiller on edge, sizing, and nerve
Stan Druckenmiller’s latest interview with Morgan Stanley is worth your time. A lot of it cuts straight to how real money is made.
📊 Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time. Just don’t get trapped in the other 20%.
📊 Edge is not being right. It’s sizing when you’re right and cutting when you’re wrong. Pure Soros playbook.
📊 You don’t need to understand every detail. He couldn’t spell Nvidia. He trusted smarter people on the tech and made the call.
📊 Volatility is not the enemy. It’s your entry if you have conviction.
📊 TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge fades once it becomes consensus.
📊 Courage matters more than wisdom. He says he’s smarter now, but was a better PM in his 30s because he had more nerve.
📊 Scars stay. Mistakes are just moments. Move on.
📊 Teva sat between growth and value. Nobody wanted it. That’s where opportunity lives.
📊 Watch where the smartest young people go. He tracked Stanford kids moving from crypto to AI before it was obvious.
📊 Knowing something is big doesn’t mean you’ll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800. It went to 1400.
📊 Pattern recognition compounds. There’s no shortcut. Just decades of reps.
Hard to argue with 40 years of scars and sizing.
💧 Sponsored by @rainbetcom - rainbet.com
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
Stan Druckenmiller’s latest interview with Morgan Stanley is worth your time. A lot of it cuts straight to how real money is made.
📊 Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time. Just don’t get trapped in the other 20%.
📊 Edge is not being right. It’s sizing when you’re right and cutting when you’re wrong. Pure Soros playbook.
📊 You don’t need to understand every detail. He couldn’t spell Nvidia. He trusted smarter people on the tech and made the call.
📊 Volatility is not the enemy. It’s your entry if you have conviction.
📊 TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge fades once it becomes consensus.
📊 Courage matters more than wisdom. He says he’s smarter now, but was a better PM in his 30s because he had more nerve.
📊 Scars stay. Mistakes are just moments. Move on.
📊 Teva sat between growth and value. Nobody wanted it. That’s where opportunity lives.
📊 Watch where the smartest young people go. He tracked Stanford kids moving from crypto to AI before it was obvious.
📊 Knowing something is big doesn’t mean you’ll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800. It went to 1400.
📊 Pattern recognition compounds. There’s no shortcut. Just decades of reps.
Hard to argue with 40 years of scars and sizing.
💧 Sponsored by @rainbetcom - rainbet.com
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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One of the biggest misconceptions in trading is believing you need some hidden informational edge. A secret signal. A pattern nobody else has discovered.
If that’s the game you think you’re playing, you’re competing against people with more data, more compute, and more capital than you’ll ever have. You’re not in that arena. Pretending you are is the first mistake.
The edge that’s actually available looks different.
It’s doing what others refuse to do. Sitting in discomfort. Absorbing volatility. Providing liquidity to the person who just wants out. You’re not outsmarting the market in some genius way. You’re out-tolerating other participants.
That framing isn’t exciting, but it’s honest.
The “secret sauce” might exist somewhere. Even if most traders found it, they still wouldn’t execute it consistently.
The better focus isn’t on what you know that others don’t.
It’s on what you can consistently do that others won’t.
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
If that’s the game you think you’re playing, you’re competing against people with more data, more compute, and more capital than you’ll ever have. You’re not in that arena. Pretending you are is the first mistake.
The edge that’s actually available looks different.
It’s doing what others refuse to do. Sitting in discomfort. Absorbing volatility. Providing liquidity to the person who just wants out. You’re not outsmarting the market in some genius way. You’re out-tolerating other participants.
That framing isn’t exciting, but it’s honest.
The “secret sauce” might exist somewhere. Even if most traders found it, they still wouldn’t execute it consistently.
The better focus isn’t on what you know that others don’t.
It’s on what you can consistently do that others won’t.
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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You're in a rush to make profits because you're in pain.
And you're in pain because you always rush.
Break this loop or keep losing money.
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CryptoFlash
And you're in pain because you always rush.
Break this loop or keep losing money.
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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Someone has opened a $8,821,600 Oil short position with 5x leverage today.
Right now, he is sitting on $1,200,000 in unrealized gains, and the liquidation price is at $130.5
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CryptoFlash
Right now, he is sitting on $1,200,000 in unrealized gains, and the liquidation price is at $130.5
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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⚠️ Key Events This Week
Focus: US inflation. Feb CPI Wednesday; Core PCE (Fed’s preferred gauge), GDP, JOLTS, and consumer sentiment Friday. Markets will assess inflation trends—key for rate cut timing.
🟡 Monday
● US Daylight Saving starts
NY trading opens earlier, shifting global market timing.
🟡 Tuesday
● Oracle $ORCL earnings
● Existing Home Sales
Oracle may impact enterprise tech and AI sentiment. Home sales reflect housing demand under current rates.
🔴 Wednesday
● Feb CPI – top event
CPI shapes Fed outlook—markets watch for cooling or sticky inflation.
🔴 Thursday
● Jobless Claims
● Adobe $ADBE earnings
Claims indicate labor health. Adobe may signal tech and enterprise spending trends.
🔴 Friday
● Core PCE, Q4 GDP, JOLTS, Consumer Sentiment
Major data wave. Core PCE complements CPI; GDP shows growth; JOLTS and sentiment complete the macro picture.
Main focus: CPI Wednesday and Friday’s data cluster.
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
Focus: US inflation. Feb CPI Wednesday; Core PCE (Fed’s preferred gauge), GDP, JOLTS, and consumer sentiment Friday. Markets will assess inflation trends—key for rate cut timing.
🟡 Monday
● US Daylight Saving starts
NY trading opens earlier, shifting global market timing.
🟡 Tuesday
● Oracle $ORCL earnings
● Existing Home Sales
Oracle may impact enterprise tech and AI sentiment. Home sales reflect housing demand under current rates.
🔴 Wednesday
● Feb CPI – top event
CPI shapes Fed outlook—markets watch for cooling or sticky inflation.
🔴 Thursday
● Jobless Claims
● Adobe $ADBE earnings
Claims indicate labor health. Adobe may signal tech and enterprise spending trends.
🔴 Friday
● Core PCE, Q4 GDP, JOLTS, Consumer Sentiment
Major data wave. Core PCE complements CPI; GDP shows growth; JOLTS and sentiment complete the macro picture.
Main focus: CPI Wednesday and Friday’s data cluster.
✅ @trading
CryptoFlash
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⚡️ JUST IN: US military has been put on high alert for a ground invasion in Iran.
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CryptoFlash
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CryptoFlash
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