JUST IN: The US government shutdown has started as funding lapses, halting some federal services and potentially furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers. Markets are reacting swiftly, with Kalshi forecasting an average of 9.5 days of shutdown this year amid sharply rising volatility.

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💵 Dollar seasonality kicks in

The US Dollar Index is now entering its strongest two-month stretch of the year. Historically, September and October deliver the best performance for the greenback.

🟡 September avg return: +0.62%
🟡 October avg return: +0.69%
🟡 Combined, this two-month window has been the most consistent positive period for the DXY

With the dollar already on track for its weakest year since the 1970s, seasonality could provide a short-term lifeline, or simply clash with the broader downtrend.

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JUST IN: Bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve declined by $21 billion last week, reaching $2.99 trillion, the lowest level since January.

• This marks one of the lowest readings since the first quarter of 2023.
• The drop continues a seventh straight weekly decline amid reduced liquidity in the banking system.
• US banking system reserves serve as a critical indicator of overall financial liquidity.

Banks' falling reserves could signal tighter liquidity conditions, potentially raising investor concerns about economic stability and influencing expectations for Fed interest rate policies, which may pressure short-term market yields and asset valuations.

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JUST IN: The S&P 500 has crossed above 6,700 for the first time in history, less than 24 hours after the government shutdown started. If historical patterns hold, the index could close near 7,600 in 12 months, with strong average returns following past shutdown endings.

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JUST IN: JD Vance stated that he does not believe the government shutdown will last very long.

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JUST IN: Trump announced that he will meet with President Xi of China in four weeks.

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What’s your biggest weakness in trading?

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🥇 Gold

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📈 Japan’s bond yields hit 2008 levels

Japan’s 2Y bond yield just crossed 0.95%, the highest since 2008, while the 10Y is near 1.64%, also close to its 2008 peak.

🟡 The latest 2Y auction saw the weakest demand since 2009.
🟡 Bid-to-cover fell to 2.81 vs a 12-month average of 3.79.
🟡 Markets now price in a possible October BOJ hike.

Investors are demanding higher yields to hold Japanese debt. The BOJ is running out of road.

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JUST IN: An earthquake has rattled buildings in Istanbul, according to a Reuters witness.

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JUST IN: The daily RSI for silver has exceeded 82 for the first time since 2020, a rare signal that has only occurred 5 times since 1987. In 100% of those instances, silver prices ended lower after 9 months, raising questions about whether it is approaching a top.

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💵 Cash is king

Assets in US money market funds have reached a record $7.7 trillion, more than tripling in just 8 years.

🟡 Low-risk yield beats sitting in equities for many.
🟡 Capital inflows accelerated after 2022’s rate hikes.
🟡 Investors are parking cash, not chasing risk.

Liquidity is piling up on the sidelines. The question is when and into what it flows back.

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JUST IN: Nvidia's stock has surged past $190, positioning the company as the world's first to achieve a $4.6 trillion market capitalization. This marks a $2.5 trillion increase from its April 2025 low.

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JUST IN: House Speaker Johnson has reiterated that there is "nothing to negotiate" on the stopgap funding bill.

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⚡️ Tesla smashes delivery record in Q3

Tesla reported 497,099 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025, far above estimates of 439,612, marking a new record for the company.

🟡 Production reached 447,450 vehicles
🟡 Model 3/Y accounted for over 480K deliveries
🟡 Energy storage deployments hit 12.5 GWh, also a record

Shares jumped more than 6% on the news, pushing Tesla closer to its all-time high. The market is rewarding execution that finally outpaces expectations.

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JUST IN: Netflix shares (NFLX) have extended their five-day decline to 5% after Elon Musk urged users on X to cancel subscriptions. The stock has wiped out nearly $30 billion in market capitalization since the widespread cancellations started.

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🧠 The 3 levels of trader self-awareness

Most traders stop at “I know I overtrade.” But true mastery goes far deeper. Awareness has layers, and the higher you climb, the less control the market has over you.

🟡 Self-knowledge is the first step, simply recognizing your patterns. Overtrading, revenge trades, FOMO - you see the behavior after it happens.

🟡 Conscious awareness is the next level, catching it in real time. You don’t just know you tilt, you notice it as the impulse rises.

🟡 Full surrender is the hardest stage, letting go of control, accepting uncertainty, and no longer needing to fight the market. You respond instead of react.

The game isn’t only about reading charts. It’s about reading yourself. The deeper you go, the lighter trading becomes.

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Stop focusing on making fckn money

Focus on trading well
Focus on making good decisions
Focus on discipline
Focus on managing risk
FOCUS ON THE PROCESS

And the money will follow naturally

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🤖 OpenAI hits $500B valuation

Bloomberg reports OpenAI has become the world’s most valuable private company at a $500B valuation, overtaking SpaceX.

🟡 Secondary share sale raised $6.6B for employees and early investors
🟡 Backers include Thrive Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer, MGX and others
🟡 Microsoft in talks with OpenAI on restructuring into a public-benefit corporation
🟡 Liquidity event seen as a key move to retain talent amid Meta’s aggressive hiring push

Despite not being profitable yet, OpenAI’s valuation cements it as the center of the global AI race. Investors are betting the company will define the infrastructure layer of the next economy.

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⛏️ Gold miners: earnings outpacing stock prices

Mining stocks may look expensive, but valuations tell a different story. P/E ratios have actually contracted as earnings have surged far faster than share prices.

🟡 EPS for the Philadelphia Gold & Silver index has quadrupled in five years
🟡 Stocks were initially priced on conservative assumptions with little investor interest
🟡 Now realized earnings, not speculation, are driving valuations
🟡 If gold holds or climbs, miners could see record profit margins

This sector is quietly transforming from a value trap to one of the most profitable corners of the market.

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🚀 Nvidia closing in on $5T milestone

Nvidia’s market cap has surged to $4.63T, putting it on track to become the first $5 trillion company in history.

The chipmaker isn’t just leading a sector anymore - it’s defining the entire market cycle.

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