yesterday heard my colleague saying "you can jump from a cobalt to a bmw, maybe a ferrari even. but you can't jump from a byd to a ferrari. different category. a guy with a cobalt could easily be a millionaire. but a guy with a byd probably not."
at first, i was like, yeah, makes sense. it matched what i already believed, which is that the most dangerous place to be is average. cuz that's where you stop moving. you feel good enough, the pressure comes off, life in general is good enough, so why keep grinding?
there is an economic version of this if you zoom out, too. the middle-income trap, coined by Gill & Kharas. it goes as, countries claw out of poverty on cheap labor, grow fast, and then just, well, stop. they've lost the cheap-labor edge but haven't built the innovation to compete up top, so they park in the middle and every hard reform becomes optional as things are fine. why bother.
and the car thing is the personal-finance cousin of that. a cobalt signals nothing, so it's fully compatible with someone quietly loaded (the whole "millionaire next door" thing, real net worth often drives a boring car). a byd is a status buy. it whispers "i've arrived." Veblen would've loved it. and "i've arrived" is the mindset that stops accumulating and starts displaying.
and you can watch this happen here in real time. chevrolet still owns the road. but byd showed up in 2023, built a plant in jizzakh, and became the best-selling new-energy brand almost overnight. meanwhile the whole country is lower-middle-income growing ~7-8% a year, being the precise spot where you either reinvest the surplus or spend it to look successful. we're basically the cobalt-to-byd question playing out on the highway.
so far so good. neat theory.
tho of course i have to catch myself so as not to gloss over anything.
"when you're behind you have more incentive" may sound noble but it mostly falls apart at the bottom. being far behind usually kills your ability to move at all, no capital, every scrap of attention eaten by getting through the month. in short, a poverty trap.
the middle is just the one spot that hands you enough comfort to coast, which kills motion. being average on its own doesn't, ofc.
most people in every category stay exactly where they are. cobalt, byd, ferrari, doesn't matter. movement is the exception everywhere, not a special curse of the middle.
anyway
the phrase is still a good one.
@summernotes
at first, i was like, yeah, makes sense. it matched what i already believed, which is that the most dangerous place to be is average. cuz that's where you stop moving. you feel good enough, the pressure comes off, life in general is good enough, so why keep grinding?
there is an economic version of this if you zoom out, too. the middle-income trap, coined by Gill & Kharas. it goes as, countries claw out of poverty on cheap labor, grow fast, and then just, well, stop. they've lost the cheap-labor edge but haven't built the innovation to compete up top, so they park in the middle and every hard reform becomes optional as things are fine. why bother.
and the car thing is the personal-finance cousin of that. a cobalt signals nothing, so it's fully compatible with someone quietly loaded (the whole "millionaire next door" thing, real net worth often drives a boring car). a byd is a status buy. it whispers "i've arrived." Veblen would've loved it. and "i've arrived" is the mindset that stops accumulating and starts displaying.
and you can watch this happen here in real time. chevrolet still owns the road. but byd showed up in 2023, built a plant in jizzakh, and became the best-selling new-energy brand almost overnight. meanwhile the whole country is lower-middle-income growing ~7-8% a year, being the precise spot where you either reinvest the surplus or spend it to look successful. we're basically the cobalt-to-byd question playing out on the highway.
so far so good. neat theory.
tho of course i have to catch myself so as not to gloss over anything.
"when you're behind you have more incentive" may sound noble but it mostly falls apart at the bottom. being far behind usually kills your ability to move at all, no capital, every scrap of attention eaten by getting through the month. in short, a poverty trap.
the middle is just the one spot that hands you enough comfort to coast, which kills motion. being average on its own doesn't, ofc.
most people in every category stay exactly where they are. cobalt, byd, ferrari, doesn't matter. movement is the exception everywhere, not a special curse of the middle.
anyway
the phrase is still a good one.
@summernotes
had a dream i was getting married to the son of my mother's friend. even had a meeting with the future mother-in-law lol, she adored me, and by everyone's reaction the deal was basically sealed.
absolute nightmare.
probably because yesterday at work too many people brought up marriage. and i've been down with the flu the past few days, feverish at night.
that's how i knew something was off. my usual dream cast is mass attacks, aliens invading earth, me fighting terrorists in my city or at uni. but marriage? nah. definitely the fever talking.
@summernotes
absolute nightmare.
probably because yesterday at work too many people brought up marriage. and i've been down with the flu the past few days, feverish at night.
that's how i knew something was off. my usual dream cast is mass attacks, aliens invading earth, me fighting terrorists in my city or at uni. but marriage? nah. definitely the fever talking.
@summernotes
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I don’t like your fashion business, mister.
I don’t like these drugs that keep you thin.
I don’t like what happened to my sister.
First, we take Manhattan. Then we take Berlin.
@summernotes
I don’t like these drugs that keep you thin.
I don’t like what happened to my sister.
First, we take Manhattan. Then we take Berlin.
@summernotes
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Nodira - 101 Ways to Stay Sane
Photo
today trotted and galloped on Albus for like an hour (i had Aaron the other day)
instructor stopped helping and is letting me enjoy the time with him on my own now
the funny thing is, once you get off the horse your legs get so wobbly and seem much shorter lol.
the noodle legs walk is so real, you literally feel like a cartoon character trying to remember how gravity works on solid ground after an hour up there😱
instructor stopped helping and is letting me enjoy the time with him on my own now
the funny thing is, once you get off the horse your legs get so wobbly and seem much shorter lol.
the noodle legs walk is so real, you literally feel like a cartoon character trying to remember how gravity works on solid ground after an hour up there
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Nodira - 101 Ways to Stay Sane
today trotted and galloped on Albus for like an hour (i had Aaron the other day) instructor stopped helping and is letting me enjoy the time with him on my own now the funny thing is, once you get off the horse your legs get so wobbly and seem much shorter…
еще раз убеждаюсь how much your physical health drags your mental health down with it
last week i had flu, so couldn’t do much but sleep and drink hot tea lol. almost no physical activity at all.
everyone kept saying i got so much quieter and sadder lol
then once i got better, started working out, swimming, riding, walking
i feel SO MUCH better and more productive at work too.
suddenly people stopped annoying me ahahah
last week i had flu, so couldn’t do much but sleep and drink hot tea lol. almost no physical activity at all.
everyone kept saying i got so much quieter and sadder lol
then once i got better, started working out, swimming, riding, walking
i feel SO MUCH better and more productive at work too.
suddenly people stopped annoying me ahahah
today read that when iran banned food exports back in march, it hit tajikistan hard, since iran's ports are tajikistan's shortest route to the sea. got me thinking about how much of central asia's trade position right now comes down to just... well, not picking a side.
the region's landlocked, so it has always needed a patron. used to be russia up north or iran down south. but over the last few years it stopped choosing. now there's a route out in every direction, russia's, iran's, a caspian route west into europe (the "middle corridor"), and a new $7b+ railway being built southeast through afghanistan into pakistan. (we building railroads while oil's spiking and everyone talking about the strait of hormuz)
so when iran's route breaks, trade for us doesn't stop, it just shifts west. the middle corridor grew almost 11% in 2025, another 10% is projected for 2026. uzbekistan's own transit cargo hit 15+ million tons in 2025, much higher than previous years.
this is basically taleb's optionality, or munger's toll bridge if you want it blunter. goes as,
you don't need to guess who wins a war if you own the only bridge out. so, the smart thing to do for central asia is, instead of betting on iran or russia, just collecting a toll off whichever route survives.
the catch is this window closes the moment these wars end, so the payoff only sticks if the region builds something permanent while it's still open. maybe that's the real skill for a small country stuck between empires, never picking a winner but always owning a road no matter which one does.
@summernotes
the region's landlocked, so it has always needed a patron. used to be russia up north or iran down south. but over the last few years it stopped choosing. now there's a route out in every direction, russia's, iran's, a caspian route west into europe (the "middle corridor"), and a new $7b+ railway being built southeast through afghanistan into pakistan. (we building railroads while oil's spiking and everyone talking about the strait of hormuz)
so when iran's route breaks, trade for us doesn't stop, it just shifts west. the middle corridor grew almost 11% in 2025, another 10% is projected for 2026. uzbekistan's own transit cargo hit 15+ million tons in 2025, much higher than previous years.
this is basically taleb's optionality, or munger's toll bridge if you want it blunter. goes as,
you don't need to guess who wins a war if you own the only bridge out. so, the smart thing to do for central asia is, instead of betting on iran or russia, just collecting a toll off whichever route survives.
the catch is this window closes the moment these wars end, so the payoff only sticks if the region builds something permanent while it's still open. maybe that's the real skill for a small country stuck between empires, never picking a winner but always owning a road no matter which one does.
@summernotes
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i find august to be the most peaceful month of all
it passes fast, yet it’s the one you get to savor the most before the tumult of fall starts
it always feels like a preparation for a new chapter, going inward before going full work
@summernotes
it passes fast, yet it’s the one you get to savor the most before the tumult of fall starts
it always feels like a preparation for a new chapter, going inward before going full work
@summernotes
when i was reading east of eden back in june, the word "timshel" kept coming back throughout the book.
the translation of it, "thou mayest," gives a person choice. the choice to either lead life the way you want or to succumb to the events in life and let them dictate it for you.
meaning, it admits that your current state might be the most miserable, or that the background you came from might have put you at a great disadvantage. it all matters, sure. some people have it better from the get-go.
but what you do next is always up to you.
the word comes from the story of cain and abel. god warns cain that sin is crouching at his door, and then says something about it that translators could never fully agree on. one version reads "thou shalt rule over sin," which makes it a promise. another reads "do thou rule over sin," which makes it an order. in the book one of the characters gets so hung up on the difference that he brings it to a group of old scholars, and they spend two years on hebrew just to settle which one is right. the answer they land on is neither. the actual word is timshel. thou mayest.
that one word makes a whole lot of difference. a promise takes the outcome out of your hands. an order does the same from the other side. "thou mayest" tho just leaves the door open and hands you the responsibility of walking through it. you may rule over sin. which also means you may not. it's on you either way.
and i love how it contrasts with the way people make free will sound like a comforting idea. it isn't very comforting. if the way is always open, there's no one left to blame when you don't take it. no fate, no background, no bad hand that fully explains where you end up. those things load the dice but they don't roll them for you.
maybe heavier to sit with but also the most freeing thing to let it sink in. you can come from nothing and still owe your life to the choices you made.
so, thou mayest.
@summernotes
the translation of it, "thou mayest," gives a person choice. the choice to either lead life the way you want or to succumb to the events in life and let them dictate it for you.
meaning, it admits that your current state might be the most miserable, or that the background you came from might have put you at a great disadvantage. it all matters, sure. some people have it better from the get-go.
but what you do next is always up to you.
the word comes from the story of cain and abel. god warns cain that sin is crouching at his door, and then says something about it that translators could never fully agree on. one version reads "thou shalt rule over sin," which makes it a promise. another reads "do thou rule over sin," which makes it an order. in the book one of the characters gets so hung up on the difference that he brings it to a group of old scholars, and they spend two years on hebrew just to settle which one is right. the answer they land on is neither. the actual word is timshel. thou mayest.
that one word makes a whole lot of difference. a promise takes the outcome out of your hands. an order does the same from the other side. "thou mayest" tho just leaves the door open and hands you the responsibility of walking through it. you may rule over sin. which also means you may not. it's on you either way.
and i love how it contrasts with the way people make free will sound like a comforting idea. it isn't very comforting. if the way is always open, there's no one left to blame when you don't take it. no fate, no background, no bad hand that fully explains where you end up. those things load the dice but they don't roll them for you.
maybe heavier to sit with but also the most freeing thing to let it sink in. you can come from nothing and still owe your life to the choices you made.
so, thou mayest.
@summernotes
“нам хочется считать, что наша жизнь это большой-большой роман.
а на самом деле, она сборник рассказов. один рассказ лучше, другой хуже.
у каждого своя кульминация и финал.”
from смешарики
(there’s smth absolutely timeless and kind about this cartoon. you sure it’s made for kids only?)
——
wanted to update on whatever i’m doing, realized i can’t say much till it actually works out.
but still:
- working on a product, getting my university to be our first institutional customer
- got it LLCed, bank account and all the necessary paperwork
- got accepted to a couple of conferences, will be traveling for free yay (for one, i have an upcoming interview for a scholarship)
- will be doing a little research in the area of the Aral Sea too
- seeing lots of my friends graduating and moving on with their lives. pushes me to try harder too
- plus uni starts soon, mentally preparing for that too. i’m forever a summer kid.
@summernotes
а на самом деле, она сборник рассказов. один рассказ лучше, другой хуже.
у каждого своя кульминация и финал.”
from смешарики
(there’s smth absolutely timeless and kind about this cartoon. you sure it’s made for kids only?)
——
wanted to update on whatever i’m doing, realized i can’t say much till it actually works out.
but still:
- working on a product, getting my university to be our first institutional customer
- got it LLCed, bank account and all the necessary paperwork
- got accepted to a couple of conferences, will be traveling for free yay (for one, i have an upcoming interview for a scholarship)
- will be doing a little research in the area of the Aral Sea too
- seeing lots of my friends graduating and moving on with their lives. pushes me to try harder too
- plus uni starts soon, mentally preparing for that too. i’m forever a summer kid.
@summernotes
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